The new year’s apartment sales market is also expected to boom the same as last year. The construction site of Olympic Park Avenue Foret in Dunchon-dong, Seoul, scheduled for sale this year. /Hankyung DB
In the new year, private construction companies are expected to supply apartments for 484,000 households nationwide. The volume will increase significantly from 2020. However, if you look inside it is unknown whether it will go as planned. This is because the amount of reconstruction and redevelopment such as Dunchon Jugong, which was pushed back last year due to restrictions such as the pre-sale price ceiling system, occupies a large portion of the new year’s volume. In Seoul, the supply of maintenance projects accounts for 80% of the total. This means that if the current regulations continue, the sale could be missed even in the new year.
The Korea Economic Daily and Real Estate Information Company, a real estate information company, jointly surveyed construction companies in the 300th place in the construction capacity evaluation for the past month to investigate the ‘2021 housing supply plan’. It is estimated that it will supply 340,2661 households for general pre-sale. This is a large increase from the 310,533 households supplied in 2020, as well as the volume planned at the beginning of the year (32,9853 households).
22,6800 households, 46.8% of the entire metropolitan area
The total volume of the metropolitan area was 22,6802 households, or 46.8% of the total (15,3938 households for general sales). It is expected to increase by 41% from the 160,441 households supplied in 2020.
In Seoul, 46,066 households (19,955 general pre-sale households), which increased 61% from the supply volume in 2020 (28626 households), are preparing for supply. Incheon is expected to supply 48,047 households, a 37% increase from 2020 (35,582 households). We are preparing for sale this year in new city housing sites such as the old city center with a well-equipped living environment and the Geomdan New City and Songdo International City.
By period, 18,6444 households are expected to be supplied in the first half, with 86,844 households being supplied in the first quarter and 96,460 households in the second quarter. In the second half, 300,000 households are expected to be supplied, which is nearly twice that of the first half.
Among construction companies, Daewoo E&C’s supply is expected to exceed 30,000 households. Daewoo E&C will offer 3,4792 apartments in the metropolitan area, including the New Year’s Anyang Bisan Elementary School redevelopment, Seoul Jangwi District 10 redevelopment, and Gyeonggi Paju Unjeong New City A13 Block. Next is Hyundai E&C, which will sell 28,570 households. It is distributed evenly across the country, including the development of Hwanho Park in Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do, the development of Daesang Park in Changwon, Gyeongsangnam-do, and redevelopment of Daejo District 1 in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul. GS E&C (28,000 households) POSCO E&C (22,890 households) and Lotte E&C (22,539 households) ranked fifth.
46,000 households in Seoul, maintenance business regulation is key
In Seoul, which attracts attention, we are interested in whether 46,000 households, including members, will be supplied in a timely manner. Even in 2020, the supply volume at the beginning of the year was 40,000 households, but the actual supply was only 62%.
The fluctuations in the supply of apartments in Seoul were not small, with the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), the enforcement of the pre-sale price cap, and the maintenance business regulation. Due to the corona 19 pandemic, some maintenance business associations were unable to hold a general meeting, and there were cases where the general sale price was lower than the member supply price due to the application of the upper limit on the sale price of private residential land. In addition to the Gangdong-gu Dunchon Olympic Park Avenue (reconstruction of Dunchon Jugong), which had a problem with the sale price, Seocho Raemianwon Bailey, Bangbae Acro Park Bridge (Bangbae District 6 redevelopment), Bangbae District 5 redevelopment, and Dongdaemun Imun District 1 redevelopment are ahead of sales.
However, it is unclear whether they will be sold properly this year. Due to deteriorating business feasibility, it may be sold after construction. If this happens, there is a possibility that the actual supply will be greatly reduced this year. It is expected that whether or not the government will deregulate will be the key to realizing supply.
Increase in fat quantity targeted for’balloon effect’
The local supply is expected to be 25,7214 households, up by 100,000 households from 2020 (15,122 households). Daegu is the largest with 31,612 households, followed by Busan (28,162 households), Chungnam (24,113 households) and Gyeongnam (2,955 households). It is expected that the new year’s volume will increase significantly in Gwangju, Daejeon, Jeollanam-do and Chungbuk, which did not exceed 10,000 households in 2020.
Major local complexes include Raemian Forestage in Dongnae-gu, Busan, Cheondong District 3, Dong-gu, Daejeon, residential environment improvement project, Gwangju Unam Jugong Complex 3 reconstruction, and Pohang Hwanho Park development project. Among them, Raemian Forestage in Busan is the largest among local sales with 4043 households (2327 households for general sales).
The expansion of local supply seems to be driven by expectations for unregulated areas, where lending and tax regulations are less. In 2020, as part of the local metropolitan cities became subject to the pre-sale price ceiling system in accordance with the’December 17 Real Estate Measures’ in 2020, restrictions on loans and taxes, and restrictions on resale of pre-sale rights were added. Then, instead of these areas, local cities, which are non-regulated areas, are receiving attention.
Dongguk University adjunct professor Ko Jun-seok said, “The expectation for new apartments in rural areas is high, so construction companies are in a hurry to supply unregulated areas.” Explained.
Reporter Ayoung Yoon/Yeonsu Shin [email protected]