It is predicted that the National Pension, which is a’big hand in the capital market’, can net sell an additional 16 trillion won in the securities market this year. It is said that the sale of pension funds will continue even further in a situation where domestic pension funds’ net selling of KOSPI shows no signs of stopping and has emerged as an unstable factor in the Korean stock market.
Pension funds, including the National Pension Service, recorded net sales for 42 consecutive trading days, the longest in history, from December 24 last year to the last trading day of last month, the 26th. During this period, the net selling amount of KOSPI of pension funds reached 13 trillion won. The oldest record was about 3 trillion won with 28 trading days from August 3 to September 9, 2009.
On the 1st, a representative of an asset management company said, “At the end of last year, the share of domestic stock investment in the national pension exceeded 20%.” It is observed that in order to meet the target share of 16.8% by the end of this year, there is no choice but to throw an additional 10 trillion won in domestic stocks. “He said. In fact, if some assumptions are added to the fund management headquarters disclosure, the net selling of national pension stocks in Korea could reach up to 16 trillion won by the end of this year. Over the past five years (2016-2020), the operating scale of the National Pension Fund has increased by an annual average of 64.2 trillion won. As of the end of last year, the amount of funds managed was 833 trillion won, so it is estimated to be 89.2 trillion won by the end of this year. The national pension target of 16.8% of domestic stock investment this year cannot exceed 150 trillion won. However, at the end of last year, the national pension fund’s domestic stock investment increased to 17.6 trillion won in the aftermath of the KOSPI surge.
In order for the National Pension to comply with its asset allocation policy, it must arithmetically dispose of domestic stocks worth 25 trillion 900 billion won this year. Since the National Pension Service sold about 10 trillion won in domestic stocks in January and February this year, it is possible to estimate that it will have to sell 15.900 trillion won more for the remainder of the year.
Kim Hak-gyun, head of Shinyoung Securities Research Center, said, “The market cap share of the Korean stock market compared to the global market is only 1.2% (as of September last year), but the share of domestic stocks held by the National Pension System is too high, which can be viewed as an unbalanced asset allocation.” .
“Now, the National Pension System exists as a’power to live’, but if pension spending increases after 2040, it becomes a’selling power’. At that time, the stock market may be shocked, so the current direction of adjusting the share of stocks is big. It’s difficult to raise issues,” he said.
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