It is predicted that next year, the nationwide home sales and jeonse prices will increase by 1.5% and 3.1%, respectively.
The Housing Industry Research Institute (Sanyeon Joo) reported on the 29th in a report on the 2021 housing market forecast that next year’s house prices are unlikely to improve in the context of accumulated housing shortages, and that the government’s regulatory reinforcement trend continues to maintain this year’s rise Revealed.
However, the increase in home sales prices is expected to be 1.5% nationwide, slowing from 4.9% this year. The rate of increase in sales prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area was expected to be 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively.
The jeonse price is forecast to be 3.1%, higher than the increase in the trading price due to the increased market confusion due to the supply of jeonse goods and the enforcement of the leasing law, which is less than the increase in end users. Jeonse prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area were expected to rise 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively.
In the case of apartment prices in Seoul, 2.1% and 1.8% in the metropolitan area and the whole country are expected to increase. In the case of apartment charter prices, it is predicted that Seoul will increase 5.0%, metropolitan area 3.7%, and nationwide 3.3%.
The factor that affected the fluctuations in apartment prices was the supply-demand imbalance.
Ju San-yeon estimates the apartment supply and demand index as the net increment of the housing market active population minus the deceased population from the 30-year-old entry population in a specific year, and the influencing factor based on this: Analyzed.
As a result, the biggest factor driving nationwide apartment prices was the supply and demand index, followed by economic growth rate, increase in mortgage loans, and change in interest rates.
In particular, in the case of Seoul, the increase in apartment prices decreased as the multi-home ratio increased.
In the case of jeonse prices, the economic growth rate, interest rate change, supply and demand index, and mainstream growth rate had an effect in order. Unlike buying and selling, interest rate changes appear to be a relatively large influence factor, which explains that interest rates seem to reflect the characteristics of the rental market that affects the opportunity cost of the lessor and the rent to cheonsei ratio.
Deok-rye Kim, Director of Housing Policy Research Dept. Ju San-yeon, said, “The sales and cheonsei prices will rise next year due to expectations for economic recovery, excess demand due to the increase in households entering the housing market, preference for new homes, low interest rates and liquidity expansion, and instability in the cheonsei market It seems to continue.
Kim Hyun-i, Money Today Broadcasting MTN reporter
