“Military tennis soldiers are hidden” Half of men who can enlist evaporate

When asked by the reporter, “Do you operate the so-called’tennis bottle’ these days?” I hear a sigh beyond the handset. A military official in the field unit said, “I can’t even dream these days,” and said, “Because of the lack of troops deployed in the unit, it is difficult to perform the mission right away.”

It is said that the situation of the naval and air forces with large ships and increased equipment is more difficult. A naval official said, “The reality of reducing the number of ground workers as much as possible due to the lack of troops to be deployed in battleships is being recruited.”

An official from the Air Force said, “There are frequent on-site inspections to see if the inspection department is using the troops in vain,” he said. “The air base has a large area, but the troops are extremely insufficient, so it is fundamentally impossible to entrust other tasks other than essential missions.” .

It is the reality of the military these days that there are not enough troops. If you think about the history of your troops falling out due to vacations or going out, they say that every day is like walking on a thin ice plate.

The reason for reducing the military structure and reducing the troops is due to the declining population. According to the resident registration demographics released by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security on the 3rd of last month, as of December 31, last year, the registered population of Korea was 58,290,023, which was 2,838 (0.04%) less than a year ago. This is the first time that the resident registration population has decreased.

The troops, which used to be at the level of a pull-up, enter the’minus’ stage after only 10 years. By 2025, the annual number of soldiers (recruitment) will drop to about 290,000. It will barely fill the level of 300,000, which is the minimum number of troops (necessary troops) necessary to maintain the Korean military structure for a while.

In addition, by 2033, the annual recruitment of troops is expected to fall below the level of 300,000, which is the necessary troops. The lack of troops makes it difficult to maintain an army. This is an inevitable result if the birth rate does not double from next year.

The scale of future troop recruitment is based on the number of births by year ▶The probability of survival at the age of 20 (98.9%) ▶The number of executives recruited (about 10,000) ▶The decision rate for active duty (90% level) ▶The duration of the service for the soldiers (18 months based on the army) ) Can be applied.

As time passes, the crisis gets worse. In just six years from 2033, more than 100,000 people will decrease. The number of men born in 2019 was 150,000, less than half of the 330,000 born in 2000 enlisted from last year.

In 2039, when the recently born generation enlists, the number of troops will drop to 189,000. It barely exceeds the level of 60% of the 300,000 required troops.

The population decline is at the level of a cliff. The number of births is reduced to a third level. According to the population change estimated by the National Statistical Office based on the birth rate in 2018, the number of male births per year in 2040 will drop to about 110,000, which is around 30% compared to 2000.

An urgent fire fell on the government. In particular, the troops responsible for the defense are deeply concerned. The Ministry of Defense implemented the’Defense Reform 2.0′ in 2018 and supplemented measures to prepare for the population decline.

According to the’Future Military Rescue’ plan, the number of troops will decrease significantly by more than 100,000, from about 610,000 (2018) to about 500,000 (2023).

The number of soldiers conscripted in their early twenties and on duty will decrease from 420,000 to 300,000. The ratio to the total troops falls from 69% to 60%. This means that the share of the Korean military is decreasing.

On the other hand, the proportion of professional soldiers is increasing. While reducing the total number of troops, the size of officers and officers, including officers, increased from 198,000 to 197,000. The ratio to the total troops increases significantly from 32% to 40%.

The ratio of female soldiers among executives is planning to increase gradually to the level of ▶6.8% (2019) ▶7.4% (2020) ▶8.1% (2021) ▶ 8.8% (2022) to reach 17,000, an increase of 1400 to be. The Ministry of Defense analyzes that it should be raised to the 20% level in the long run.

Even if such a change in the troop structure is promoted, it is predicted that it will be difficult to maintain the troops in the existing way in the 2040s. This is the background of the analysis that the use of civilian workforce should be increased as in the case of overseas.

The U.S. military doesn’t just fill the people needed for national defense. The size of civilians (public officials, military personnel, private companies, etc.) is 52% of that of the military. The field of US military use of civilian personnel includes various non-combat fields such as public affairs, military affairs, investigation, finance, information, maintenance, acquisition, etc.

The UK (38%) and France (30%) also rely heavily on civilian workforce. The high proportion of private sector defense does not mean that these countries have weak defense capabilities.

However, Korea (5.5%) is lower than Japan (8%) and Turkey (7.6%). If the proportion of civilians is increased, the total number of personnel in the field of defense can be maintained even if the number of personnel is reduced.

A military official who works with the USFK said, “The US military has more civilians than soldiers even in the sensitive intelligence department.

It is also possible not to increase the number of civilians in the Department of Defense and the military. Among the tasks performed by the military, it is necessary to actively seek to utilize external civilian personnel in the field of combat service support and outsourcing.

The US military also employs civilians for some combat missions. Convoy of troops and equipment, as well as guards outside the unit, is left to the civilian domain. One military official said, “Like the US military, the military should prepare a small rapid response team to prepare for military threats, and outsource security to private companies.”

By allocating the budget, it can be used by the private sector immediately. This is a plan for the military to entrust the security mission to a private military enterprise (PMC) or a security specialist. The USFK employed Koreans to entrust various base operations such as security as well as facility management, but there is no problem.

There are also voices that we must find a way out of internal reform. A military official said, “It is necessary to take measures to completely change the organization, such as a plan to unify and abolish the reserve division.” It is an argument that we must overcome inertia.

It is pointed out from inside and outside the military that the pace of recent defense reform has slowed. A source who knows the reform policy well said, “From the second half of last year, there is a widespread awareness that the defense reform has already been completed.”

Reporter Park Yonghan [email protected]