‘Lee Saeng-mang’ Seoul house price… is it still possible to arrange my own house? [진짜인가요]

“When the price of the house goes back to 2016, I will live right away…”

As of October 2016, the median apartment price in Seoul was 400 million won. It is easy to get even a Seoul apartment charter with this money now. On the 7th, statistics showed that the rent for apartments in Seoul has risen close to 100 million won in five months after the enforcement of the new lease law last year.

How far must the prices of apartments, especially apartments in Seoul, go up?

The question does not end here. House prices that have risen too much, will they fall a little in the future? Should I buy it now if I am a beneficial owner, not an investment? Who should I ask questions like this? I heard the news that a hidden master in the real estate industry will reveal the results of compressing his writing skills. The protagonist is the pseudonym’Kazha’ (Park Gwang-seop), whose articles posted on famous real estate cafes in the last two to three years were viewed by up to 74,000 times in a basic 20,000 to 30,000 clicks.

Even now, I asked for advice on what decisions should be made by Burin-i (a word that combines’real estate’ and’children’, meaning novices in real estate) and the real-estate one-households. He stresses, “If you can’t buy a class 1 apartment in Seoul, where the price is already too high, you have to look carefully at class 2 or class 3,” he said. If so, where is the second grade?

Q. You have argued that government regulations (involuntarily) have raised the price of your home. The current government’s “will to capture the real estate market” is firm. However, do you think there is a possibility that this cycle will repeat even after the next measure?

▲ Considering the past remarks of the new Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byeon Chang-heum, “the current real estate policy is seriously injured,” it is expected that in 2021, measures focusing on regulations will come out on a similar basis. And using the same method, I guess it will be difficult to produce different results.

(Analyzes that the formula that the government mentioned in the book raised house prices is)

Q. The government shouldn’t have to see the state of the house price continuing to rise, but there are also appeals from some people saying, “Every time you come up with a countermeasure, the house price seems to rise more, so don’t take any measures.” It won’t be easy, but is there anything you can expect as a possible countermeasure in the future?

▲ It is my philosophy to avoid overwhelming predictions, but I will only mention it in the predictable line. As public opinion over the shortage of supply is being hit, the supply countermeasures are likely to come out in some way. It seems that the government has now recognized that the topic of the real estate market is’supply’. However, many of the supplies that come out here will have the characteristics of’public’. In simple terms, it’s like’a house that doesn’t make any market gains’.

Q. Since April 2019, it has been argued that “you have to divide the real estate by source”. Specifically, how is’feeding’ divided?

▲ While analyzing real estate market prices at the beginning of last year, I studied with interest in the volatility of prices by supply. The criterion is price and location. If the absolute criterion is price, the location criteria are determined based on accessibility (in simple terms, the number of high-quality jobs) and the formation of school districts in the three business districts (GBD Gangnam, CBD Gwanghwamun, YBD Yeouido). Of course, depending on your point of view, the feeding standard can be different. I see Jamsil or higher as Grade 1 paper.

There has always been a cycle in which grade 1 (high risk, high return) rises, grade 2 (low risk, middle income) rises, and then grade 3 (low risk, low return) rises. It’s important to remember that if you aren’t aware of these timings, you can miss out on what can benefit or risk unnecessary losses.

Q. I told you to pay attention to the end of March this year to prepare my house. Why?

▲ From June 2021, the transfer tax will be excessive. The amount to avoid this is expected to be released in March 2021, at least three months ago. If you are reading this article, it is recommended that you prepare to mobilize the maximum amount of financial resources at the end of May in preparation for the release of quick sales with balance conditions at the end of May.

Q. Let’s take a case by case. There is no money and the subscription price is low, so he is a homeless person who always drinks high praise in the subscription market. Not long ago, with the right to apply for contract renewal, I was able to live in the current house for two more years, but when the period ends, I am afraid that I will be able to find another private house with the money. This person asks for advice on what decision to make.

▲You must bring one living room. Buying a house is not an investment. Homelessness is an inverse investment betting on a decline in home prices, and investments start with second homes. (Don’t) The fortunate thing is that (by renewing the contract), we have earned two years of time, so we recommend that you slowly and thoroughly analyze where you want to buy, minimize downside risks, and find a complex that can increase profitability.

Q. This time, he is a resident of the metropolitan area. Because of my child’s school district, I have been researching and preparing the market for several years to transfer to a higher level. However, as the current government’s policies are repeated, the house price has risen too much and loans are also tied up. Can you give me advice on how to plan in this case?

▲ First, you have to go to the bank. And it is best to check how much money you can spend and use the temporary two-house system. Also, please note that school districts are not necessarily expensive places, so you can expand your options. It is not necessarily an advanced school district.

Q. Recently, the’collapse theory’ that YouTube and the community predicts that “the price of the house will fall in the future” is emerging again, and some debates are taking place at all. The article, ‘The Truth of the Fall,’ posted in the real estate community under the pseudonym Kazuha, is also popular.

▲ I think the popularity of the collapse theory is due to the’confirmation bias’. If it is consistent with your own beliefs, you trust, and if it is different from your own, you turn away. Since the house price has already risen so much that I can’t buy it anyway, the sentiment that expects the house price to drop is pushing the subscribe button of the tumbling YouTuber. After all, real estate is judgment and execution. No matter how good you judge, if you don’t put it into practice, it is nothing but useless knowledge. I hope you go to the field right now and take a look at the market trend. Finally, I would like to introduce the tombstone of Bernard Shaw to those who haven’t bought a house yet (especially those with low subscription points). “I was lingering and I knew it would be like this.”

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