This week, the KOSPI index is expected to be between 2950 and 3150.
Interested in key indicators that can confirm economic momentum
(Photo = Getty Image Bank)
This week (22-26), the direction of the domestic stock market is expected to focus on key indicators that can confirm economic momentum. As the US central bank (Fed) eased concerns about tightening, the domestic stock market is expected to show modest gains.
According to the financial investment industry on the 21st, the KOSPI index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2950 to 3150 this week.
Earlier, the US Central Bank (Fed), through the Federal Open Markets Commission (FOMC) in March, eased doubts about monetary policy tightening. As the stock market is far from reaching the Fed’s target level of economic recovery, we are not likely to be concerned about the possibility of tightening for a considerable period of time.
However, despite the Fed’s efforts to ease concerns about austerity, the fact that there was no policy to regulate the rate of market interest rate rise did not completely solve the possibility of expanding market interest rate volatility.
Last week, the domestic stock market closed at 3039.53 in the aftermath of the resumption of the US Treasury rate hike. The previous day, in the international financial market, the interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds surged and the international oil price plummeted.
In the New York Stock Exchange, major indexes ended mixedly with the Fed’s decision to end bank capital deregulation. The Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average fell by 0.5% last week. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P500) index and the Nasdaq each fell by about 0.8%.
This week, a key indicator of economic momentum in the US will be released. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is representative, and the current forecast is confirmed to be 59.5, 0.9 points higher than the previous month. The improvement in this indicator can lead to stronger confidence in the economic recovery, which can be a boon for economic-sensitive stocks.
In addition, the rate of increase in core personal consumption expenditure (PCE), which is the Fed’s inflation check indicator, is also disclosed. Considering the trajectory of the past and the Fed’s forecast, it is highly likely that the direction will be upward.
Dae-Joon Kim, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, “According to the previous experience, it is expected to act more favorably on economically sensitive stocks than on economic defense stocks.”
After passing important monetary policy events, the stock market’s interest is expected to gradually shift to earnings. The stock market may react sensitively to changes in the US market interest rate for the time being, but the decline in the valuation of US growth stocks (the level of stock price compared to earnings) and confidence in the economic recovery are expected to provide downward rigidity in the index.
Noh-gil, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “It is advantageous to respond to purchases when price adjustments are made as the domestic stock market performance estimates are raised and the valuation burden is eased.” “The configuration strategy will work.”
Eunji Cha, reporter Hankyung.com [email protected]
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