“Korea-US joint training held in March”… There seems to be no practice test for OPCON conversion

While North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for a cessation of combined training at the 8th Labor Party Congress last month, ROK-US military authorities internally confirmed to conduct combined training next month. According to multiple military sources on the 14th, the ROK-U.S. military authorities conducted joint exercises during the first half. 8-18 next month, Like usual Command post training in the form of computer simulation (CPX)Will proceed to. Excluding weekends, the training period is a total of 9 days.

According to multiple military sources, the ROK-US military authorities plan to hold a combined exercise in the first half of next month in the form of command post training (CPX). The photo shows soldiers of the ROK and US forces watching the state of combined training in an underground bunker. [사진 미 공군]

In this regard, the Ministry of Defense said, “We are in discussions between Korea and the United States, taking into account the overall situation such as the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).” A military source said, “As a precedent, it seems that the Joint Chiefs of Staff will officially announce whether or not the training will be conducted on the day before or on the day of the training.”

Accordingly, it is expected that North Korea will be the key to the situation on the Korean peninsula, using this combined exercise as a prelude to how it will move. If North Korea provokes, there are many observations that the Biden administration will show a passive attitude to the North Korean-US dialogue desired by the South Korean government as it solidifies its principle of strategy toward North Korea. It is already said that the United States will increase the frequency of the appearance of strategic assets that North Korea fears, such as strategic bombers, aircraft carriers, and nuclear-propelled submarines, on the Korean Peninsula, and will actively engage the ROK side to hold a practical combined training in the second half.

Shin Beom-cheol, head of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security at the Institute for Economics and Social Affairs, said, “It seems that North Korea will not do anything to break the game until the United States makes a clear stance, If the Biden administration’s message does not come out until April, the ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) could be provocated around Kim Il-sung’s birthday (April 15).“I looked out.

North Korea did not release an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a military parade to commemorate the 8th Labor Party Congress on the 14th of last month. The photo shows a fever byeongsik reported by the labor newspaper on the 15th of last month. [연합뉴스]

In this training, there is a high possibility that the verification of the future CFC capabilities led by the ROK military, which is a kind of mock test prior to the transition to wartime, will not be conducted. The ROK-U.S. military authorities have postponed the second stage of the three stages of verification (full operational capability and FOC) that were to be conducted last year due to the corona 19 effect until this year. Government sources who wanted to remain anonymous “After ROK-US Combined Commander Robert Abrams, who has shown a strict stance on OPCON transition, has been replaced by April at the latest, it is the military internal airflow to do the FOC in the combined training in the second half of this summer.”Said.

Over the years, Commander Abrams has been critical of the early transition to OPCON. In a videoconference at the US Institute of Strategic International Studies (CSIS) in September of last year, he said, “The 3rd phase of future CFC capability verification is misrepresented as all conditions for OPCON transition. .

US Pacific Army Commander Paul Lacamerer (Captain) has been appointed as the next ROK-US Combined Commander. The US Congress is expected to hold and approve a personnel hearing for Lacamerer by next month.

ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Commander Robert Abrams has expressed a negative position on the early transition of wartime opposition. The photo shows Commander Abrams (right) responding to Deputy Commander Kim Seung-gyeom’s big salute at the 42nd anniversary of the founding of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command held at the Collier Field Gymnasium at the US Army Base in Seoul on November 6 last year. [연합뉴스]

According to multiple government sources, the government aims to nail the year of OPCON transition at the Korea-US Security Council (SCM) scheduled to be held in Seoul this fall based on the evaluation results of both countries after completing the FOC in the combined training in the second half of the year. 〈Refer to the first page of this paper on January 25th〉 In this regard, Defense Minister Seo-wook said at the New Year press conference on the 27th of last month, “We will make progress in the transition to opposition during his tenure.”

However, it is pointed out that it will act as a variable in the OPCON transition schedule as the Biden administration has announced that it will fully review its North Korea policy. This is from the point of view that it can also be used as a card for North Korea. “The Biden administration is reviewing the policy toward North Korea with a firm determination not to be brought to North Korea,” said the head of the center. “In the process, we will also approach the issue of OPCON conversion.” therefore “The Democratic Party’s diplomatic and security-related personnel are cautious about the Moon Jae-in administration’s North Korea policy and alliance policy.“Some say hello Concerns that OPCON shift could accelerate Korea’s pro-ChinaizationI know that I do it.”

Reporters Cheoljae Lee and Sangjin Kim [email protected]