-The 1%P gap in December widens to 3.9%P
-Kim, women and young people dominate outside the margin of error
-Lee has a high preference for the elderly in their 60s and 70s
In the investigation assuming a bilateral confrontation for the Busan Mayor’s by-election, the Democratic Party’s former Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Kim Young-chun and former Congressman Lee Eon-ju, the power of the people, fought a tight fight. It is within the margin of error, but in the bilateral confrontation, former Minister Kim is gradually leading the former lawmaker.
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In this poll conducted by Kukje newspaper, when asked,’If two people confront, if tomorrow is election day, who will vote for’, former Minister Kim counted 36.6% and former lawmaker 32.7%. In a survey conducted by Polycom from December 26 to 28 last year at the request of the International Newspaper, the difference in approval ratings between former Minister Kim (29.1%) and former lawmaker (28.1%) was only 1 percentage point. In about a month and a half, the approval ratings of the two rose to 3.9 percentage points.
In this survey, the two won solid support from the traditional supporters of the opposition parties. Former Minister Kim took the lead outside the margin of error among women (38.2%), 18 to 20s (36.4%), 30s (40.0%), 40s (50.6%), and 50s (39.4%). The former lawmakers dominated in their 60s (38.7%) and 70s or older (46.1%). Men’s approval ratings are divided. 34.9% of male respondents supported former Minister Kim and 35.2% supported former lawmaker Lee.
The two also showed an upper hand in their own district. Former Minister Kim, who was a member of the National Assembly in Busan Jingap, surpassed the former legislator outside the margin of error with 40.4% in the western region (Saha, Sasang, Gangseo, Buk-gu) and 40.0% in the midwest region (East, West, Central, Busanjin, Yeongdo-gu). . On the other hand, former lawmaker Lee, who is the head of the Nam-eul region in Busan, showed an edge over Kim, with 33.5% in the Middle East region (Geumjeong, Yeonje, Dongnae-gu) and 38.1% in the eastern region (Nam, Haeundae, Suyeong, Gijang-gun). However, there was a difference in the support of the two in the party. While former Minister Kim won 85.7% of the Democratic Party supporters, former lawmaker Lee was only 59.8% of the people’s supporters.
◇ Parallel wired and wireless survey of 1,000 Busan citizens
■ How did you investigate
-Error range ±3.1%P
This public opinion survey was commissioned by the International Newspaper and was conducted by ResearchView, a specialized public opinion poll, on 1,000 men and women over the age of 18 residing in Busan on the 11th and 12th.
The sampling frame used in this survey was conducted by wired and wireless parallel ARS using a mobile phone virtual number and a fixed line phone RDD provided by a mobile telecommunication company. The wired/wireless ratio was 19.5% for wired and 80.5% for wireless, with a response rate of 5.4%. As of the end of December 2020, the results of the survey were weighted by gender, age, and region in proportion to the resident registration population (cell weight) by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security. The sample error is ± 3.1% points with a 95% confidence level. For more information, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.
Reporter Kim Hae-jung [email protected]