[K-반도체의 파워➂] Shortage of semiconductors… the plate has already shaken

[이코노믹리뷰=최진홍 기자] The prospect that the global semiconductor supercycle will begin this year is solidifying. Among these, meaningful changes are discovered one after another in the entire related ecosystem, attracting attention.

Clear Rolling, Automotive Semiconductor

In the global semiconductor market, the demand and supply system centered on memory semiconductors is collapsing. This is because semiconductor shortages are occurring in some areas following the increase in DRAM and NAND flash prices. A typical example is the situation surrounding automotive semiconductors.

It is worth paying attention to the fact that factories of automakers are being shut down one after another. In fact, FiatChrysler shut down its Canadian and Mexican plants at one time, and Ford is also trying to adjust the volume by temporarily shutting down its US plants following the shutdown of its Brazilian plants. Toyota and Honda of Japan have also temporarily suspended factories in China and Japan, and Tesla has also started to stop production of the Model 3. GM Korea has set a policy to operate only half of its Bupyeong 2 plant by mid-month and decide whether to shut it down depending on the situation in the future.

It is an analysis that the recent automotive semiconductor turmoil was fueled by semiconductor manufacturers reducing the proportion of automotive semiconductors and increasing the amount of IT semiconductors while automobile sales declined during the Corona 19 period. This means that while the supply of semiconductors for vehicles temporarily decreased as the sales of automobiles declined last year, when Corona 19 was on the rise, the economy gradually recovered and the sales of automobiles increased, but the supply of semiconductors for vehicles, which once decreased, is not keeping up with demand.

The need for sophisticated customized design due to the characteristics of automotive semiconductors is also pointed out as a factor in which supply cannot be easily increased, unlike IT semiconductors that are commonly used.

Each automaker suffered an’emergency’. The American Automobile Policy Committee (AAPC) urged the U.S. Department of Commerce and Biden’s administration to increase the supply of semiconductors for vehicles, and even if the semiconductor supply shortage cannot be solved immediately, the amount of semiconductors that excessively go into IT such as home appliances has been partially adjusted and provided as automotive semiconductors. I emphasized that it should be done. AAPC Chairman Matt Blunt said, “If this is the case, the third quarter is also dangerous.”

GM recently sent an appeal to the Taiwanese government to receive emergency vehicle semiconductors from TSMC, and many other automakers are sending SOS. At the meeting of TSMC and Qualcomm’s top officials from the United States, the U.S. government asked the Taiwanese government to increase the supply of automotive semiconductors. German economic minister Peter Altmeier sent a letter to Taiwan’s economic minister, Wang Mei-hwa, requesting an increase in the supply of semiconductors for automobiles.Instead of approving this, Taiwan requested that he be able to purchase the COVID-19 vaccine produced by German bio companies at any time. It also became a hot topic by making reverse proposals.

As automotive semiconductors showed shortage, prices naturally increased. While NXP of the US has already announced the increase in automotive semiconductor prices in a letter, the foundry’s TSMC has also announced a price increase of up to 15%. If the supply of microcontroller units (MCU) improves from April, the fire could be extinguished, but the Biden administration is putting a strong drive to supply and demand semiconductors for vehicles. It is likely to lead.

The shortage of semiconductors for vehicles can be interpreted as a’clear precursor’ to the semiconductor supercycle phenomenon. It is still happening in the field of special purpose semiconductors for vehicles, but this is because it can be a barometer that can gauge the flow of the entire semiconductor market. In particular, the shortage of semiconductors for vehicles is the result of the post-corona 19 storm.

This is why attention is focused on scenes where shortages are occurring in server semiconductors in recent years. While the on-tact trend caused by Corona 19 is expected to drive the growth of the server semiconductor market, there is even a forecast that server semiconductor prices will rise by up to 15% this year due to the expansion of infrastructure by cloud companies. Here, it is said that production of semiconductors for servers could not keep up with the demand, and the occurrence of a’shortage phenomenon’ also affected to some extent.

It is also predicted that subsequent natural disasters will change the trend of the semiconductor supercycle. In fact, on December 10, last year, an earthquake of magnitude 9.7 occurred in the waters near northeastern Taiwan, causing an accident in which some of the factory workers in the northern Hsinchu Science Park of Taiwan TSMC were evacuated, and it is predicted that the supply will drop in the process.

The same is true of Japan’s Renesas, which is seeking to take over the UK dialogue. Due to an earthquake in Fukushima, Japan on the 13th of last month, the operation of Renesas’ 12-inch wafer assembly line was shut down, disrupting the supply of goods, and ultimately, the supply is falling.

Samsung Electronics also shut down its factory operation on the 17th of last month due to an all-time cold wave in Austin, Texas. The electricity was cut off and the factory itself was shut down. In this process, it is said that the amount of semiconductors released to the market is significantly reduced, and as a result, reflective profits from rising prices can be obtained.

Rapidly changing ecosystem

As semiconductor prices rise, the balance between supply and demand is disrupted, and the likelihood of a semiconductor supercycle is increasing. In the midst of this, there is even a prospect that the market ecosystem will be solid, centering on B2B. This is why some people are predicting that this supercycle will last until 2022. Above all, the scene where a warm wind blows throughout the foundry following memory and system semiconductors attracts attention. It means that there are no’weak spots’ in the market as a whole.

It is also important to note that the risk of the US-China neurological war still remains, but the least uncertainty is clearing.

US President Joe Biden signed an executive order on the 24th of last month (local time) to exclude China from the global supply chain ecosystem. The intention is to exclude China from the raw material supply chain by establishing a new global supply chain for rare earth and electric vehicle batteries and semiconductors.

In fact, in the case of semiconductors, the United States has tried persistent pressure since the time of the Trump administration. This is because the US’s willingness to provide rice for high-tech industries was so strong in a situation where China invested enormous amounts of money to develop semiconductors. The U.S. strongly stopped when China attempted to acquire its own semiconductor companies such as SanDisk, centered on Tsinghua Unigroup, and maintained strict checks even when China started to regenerate its own semiconductors based on its vast domestic market. Thanks to this, the Chinese semiconductor infrastructure collapsed to the point that Tsinghua Unigroup declared a default.

The ambitiously prepared foundry strategy collapsed without even starting. According to the industry on the 1st and foreign media in China, including Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP), HSMC announced to all employees that “there is no plan to resume production as well as work.” Based on an investment of 12.8 billion won, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have expressed their ambition to shake the plate in the 7-nano or larger foundry market, but it does not seem to have overcome the management difficulties that have arisen since January of last year. Despite being criticized for not having its own competitiveness, there are many analyzes that China’s anxiousness to “do anything” under pressure from the United States erred the line.

However, the US also has its weaknesses. This is because self-sufficiency in emergencies is difficult due to the small amount of in-house semiconductor production. The strategy of tying TSMC, which had been dealing with Huawei for a long time, to’my side’ from attracting US factories was effective, but this method can only produce limited effects. For that reason, it seems that the US is planning an ecosystem strategy that responds to emergencies while establishing a separate supply chain for semiconductors in cooperation with Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, sharing information, supplementing production items with each other. It is a strategy that can completely contain China’s semiconductor rollout and solve the US’ semiconductor supply and demand difficulties.

If the global semiconductor supply chain goes as intended by the United States, the foothold for the supercycle is even stronger. This is because the stability of the boom increases because the variables of the US-China conflict decrease. However, considering China’s share of the semiconductor market, there is also a prospect that it could become a catalyst for the supercycle if China’s semiconductor industry survives.

In terms of semiconductor R&D, competition has already begun. The US CNBC reported on the 1st (local time) that China’s R&D expenditure reached 378 billion dollars as of last year. Compared to the previous year, it increased by 10.3% and reached 2.4% of GDP. It is evaluated that it has stepped forward to advance its own semiconductor technology in a situation where the latest technology power is deteriorating under strong pressure from the United States.