Input 2020.12.29 16:23
Based on the result of analyzing apartment prices in the last 10 years, Ju San-yeon believes that the supply-demand imbalance has the greatest effect on the rise of house prices, and predicts that apartment sales and jeonse prices will increase by 1.8% and 3.3%, respectively, in 2021.
As the supply-demand imbalance and low interest rates affect, respectively, the sale price of apartments in Seoul and the jeonse price will increase by 2.1% and 5.0%. In terms of the metropolitan area, the trading price is expected to increase by 1.8% and the jeonse price by 3.7%.
Ju San-yeon tentatively calculated that the apartment sales price in 2020 rose only 2.9% in Seoul standards, while the national and metropolitan areas rose 6.8% and 8.6%, respectively. The apartment charter price was tentatively calculated to increase by 6.6% in the national standard, 8.0% in the metropolitan area, and 5.2% in the Seoul standard.
Joo San-yeon analyzed that in the apartment sales market in Seoul, the large impact of supply and demand on prices is confirmed by the fluctuations in house prices. In addition, contrary to popular belief, the lower the ratio of multi-homed people, the higher the price of apartments in Seoul can rise.
Changes in interest rates and supply and demand were cited as factors that greatly influence the jeonse market. Sanyeon Joo explained that this is because the interest rate reflects the characteristics of the rental market that influences the opportunity cost of the lessor and the rent to cheonsei ratio. However, in the cheonsei market, as the number of multi-homeowners increases, the gap between the sale price and the jeonse price decreases, and the level of real rent increases.