Is group immunity possible in November? “February vaccinators may need re-vaccination in the fall”

As the domestic vaccination blueprint for novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) was released, experts generally gave good evaluations on the vaccination rankings and side effects response systems. However, opinions differ on the possibility of realizing the government’s goal of forming collective immunity in November.

Jeong Ki-seok, a professor of respiratory internal medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital (former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) said, “I want to give a generous score for this plan. The vaccination priority was well selected. It is remarkable that the order of vaccination was roughly adjusted according to the amount of vaccines secured for each type of vaccine,” he said. The same.” Jeon Byung-yul, a professor at the Graduate School of Medicine at Cha Medical University (former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), said, “I think the overall plan was well made.”

However, Professor Jeon said, “When AstraZeneca vaccination begins, the question is whether the vaccination for the elderly over 65 will be done properly. “I don’t know if the doctors will try to vaccinate them, as the UK has already raised the issue of the effects of the elderly.” He said, “The first principle of vaccination disclosed by the government is’we will vaccination centered on scientific grounds’, but there is no evidence that AstraZeneca is effective for the elderly. “If you say that the target is not right, you will not be able to persuade it to be correct.” The AstraZeneca vaccine was controversial because fewer elderly people over 65 were involved in clinical trials. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) said on the 26th (local time) that there is a possibility that the AstraZeneca vaccine may be given limited approval to only young people.

Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious medicine at Korea University Guro Hospital, said, “When looking at the AstraZeneca data, we did not indicate how many participants over 65 years old. There are 500 people aged 56 to 69, and 220 people aged 70 or older. Fewer than 500 seem to be over 65. As for the effect part, it comes out that the whole is 62%. “Effects by age don’t come out properly.” Professor Kim said, “Pfizer and Moderna included 43,000 people in a representative manner taking into account race, age, gender, and obesity in the US population, and also disclosed the efficacy by age.” “If there is no effect, “It’s frustrating.” Chun Byung-cheol, a professor of preventive medicine at Korea University, said, “It is difficult to say that the current data is effective for the elderly.

The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, which is reviewing the AstraZeneca vaccine, also admitted that the clinical trial results were insufficient. Sang-Bong Kim, director of the Bio-Pharmaceutical Bureau of the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, said, “The results of clinical trials conducted by AstraZeneca in the UK and Brazil have been submitted and are currently under approval. We plan to thoroughly verify the appropriateness of administration for the elderly under limited clinical data on the elderly,” he said. It is concluded whether or not it can be used in Korea in February.

Pfizer-Modena vaccine is the first vaccine created and inoculated by mankind. The remaining vaccines also took less than a year to develop. Because of this, no one knows how long the antibodies obtained with the vaccine will last. If it is similar to the persistence of general respiratory virus antibodies, those who received the initial vaccination may weaken or disappear from August to September. First of all, it means that people who are vaccinated may need to be vaccinated again this fall just as they should get the flu vaccine every year.

“People who vaccinated at the end of February will have the best effect around April,” said Kim Yun, a professor at Seoul National University’s Department of Medical Management. Professor Chun Byung-cheol said, “There is no information about how long the antibodies will last because this vaccine has been inoculated shortly. However, influenza vaccines usually maintain antibodies for 6 months, and respiratory viruses do not have antibodies for long. Considering that point, if a person who does not form antibodies well even if they get a vaccine in February, such as the elderly or chronically ill, it is about fall. When done, theoretically, their antibodies can drop a lot. This is not to say that you shouldn’t be vaccinating the elderly right now because you are worried about that. However, monitoring of vaccine effectiveness, adverse reactions and side effects should be strengthened far more than now.

Prof. Chun said, “Evaluating the effect is that if the antibodies of those who were initially hit weaken or disappear by the fall, re-vaccination should also be considered.” Joong-sik Eom, a professor of infectious medicine at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said, “No one knows whether long-term immunity will continue through vaccination. First of all, it is necessary to inoculate as much as possible this year and to do future research based on the results. Now, no country has produced mass immunizations through vaccines in the community.”

Even with inoculation, antibodies may not be formed. Different vaccines have different effects confirmed by clinical trials, but no vaccine is 100% effective. Prof. Yoon Kim said, “When talking about the target for collective immunity, the government should distinguish between the total immunization population and the immunization population. In the case of Pfizer, Moder, or vaccines, the immune-forming effect is about 95%. If 100 people are right, it means that 95 people have immunity. AstraZeneca averages about 70%. “We don’t know exactly how much Janssen or Novabacks will be.”

Professor Kim said, “We need to distinguish between efficacy and effect. Efficacy refers to the immune effect of the vaccine in the clinical trial stage, and the effect refers to the immune effect when the vaccine is actually inoculated. “The effect is slightly lower than the normal effect,” he said. “It is difficult to actually show the 95% effect as announced by Pfizer Modena. Experts estimate around 80-85%. Assuming that an average of 80% is effective, including AstraZeneca, when 70% of the population is vaccinated, the immunity population is about 56%.”

The outbreak of the mutant virus is also a key issue. During the vaccination plan briefing on the 28th, Chung Eun-kyung, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said, “We need to prepare for uncertainties such as the effect of the mutant virus and the duration of immunity.” At a briefing that day, Baek-rin Seong, a professor at Yonsei University’s Department of Biotechnology, said, “Although experts are divided, the mutant virus can be covered with the current vaccine.” Professor Yoon Kim said, “If a mutant virus known to have a stronger transmission power spreads, it is necessary to raise the vaccination target for collective immunity.
Reporter Esther and Lee Tae-yoon [email protected]