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[이데일리 원다연 기자] It is predicted that if China’s digital renminbi issuance is successful, up to 50% of Chinese cash can be replaced by digital renminbi within the next two to three years.
On the 27th, the Bank of Korea made this clear through’China’s economic outlook and major issues in 2021′.
China is the fastest country in the world for digital currency (CBDC) issued by central banks. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank of China, conducted a closed test on the digital renminbi from the end of last year, followed by a usage test for the public in Shenzhen and Suzhou in October and this month, respectively.
In a test conducted in Shenzhen last October, a digital renminbi was distributed and used at a rate of 200 yuan per person to 50,000 residents selected by lottery. Winners installed a digital wallet of one of the four state-run banks on their smartphones, received 200 yuan of digital yuan, and used digital yuan as cash for a week at about 3,000 designated stores including restaurants.
The number of participants and duration of the test held in Suzhou this month have been expanded. From the 11th to the 27th of this month, the People’s Bank, together with the Suzhou Municipal Government, paid 200 yuan per capita to 100,000 residents, and tested its use at 10,000 designated stores in Suzhou City. In particular, in this experiment, Jingdong, an e-commerce company, participated and tested the use of digital yuan in online commerce for the first time.
The BOK evaluated that China is one step closer to the official issuance of digital renminbi in the future. An official from the BOK predicted, “As the pilot use of the digital renminbi will expand not only to the eastern metropolitan area but also to the western regions where financial infrastructure is relatively weak, a large-scale use equivalent to the actual issuance will be achieved around the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.”
However, in light of the fact that the People’s Bank has emphasized that there is no set timetable for the issuance schedule of the digital yuan, it is expected that the official issuance of the digital yuan will not be in a hurry in a situation where the stability and integrity of the digital yuan are not verified.
The digital renminbi is expected to quickly replace cash currency once it starts to be issued successfully. As of November this year, the amount of cash (M0) in circulation in China is 8 trillion yuan, and it is expected that 2-4 trillion yuan to 4 trillion yuan will be converted into digital currency within 2-3 years when digital yuan is issued. In addition, Goldman Sachs predicted that the digital renminbi will secure 1 billion users within the next 10 years and account for 15% of the total micropayment scale.
It is evaluated that the digital renminbi will also contribute to the internationalization of the renminbi. An official from the BOK predicted that “the digital renminbi can be used outside of China, so it is expected to contribute to the internationalization of the renminbi, and in particular, the use of the yuan is expected to increase gradually, focusing on one-to-one business and trade settlement.