Song Min-gyu, a senior research fellow at the Korea Financial Research Institute, argued in the report on the 4th, “Key Monitoring Matters for Household Debt Risk Management”. The report predicted that although house prices have continued to rise over the past three years, housing prices may decline in the future due to the burden of holding taxes and strengthening lending regulations.
Research Fellow Song emphasized, “To detect the risk of falling house prices early, supervision should be subdivided according to the characteristics of borrowers and collateral as well as the possibility of insolvency by financial company.” In particular, he analyzed, “Houses outside of Seoul and houses under 900 million won will be relatively more vulnerable to falling house prices.”
As for the reason, he estimated that the mortgage loan ratio (LTV) in the outskirts of Seoul, where the emphasis on lending regulations was relatively weak when the housing price surged last year, is relatively high, and in terms of price range, the LTV of houses under 900 million won tends to be high. Claimed to be showing.
In addition, Research Fellow Song emphasized, “In the period of rising house prices, the loan regulation continued to be strengthened, and to bypass this, purchases using jeonse and private borrowing would have been actively used.”
He said, “The interest burden on household debt depends on the COFIX (financing cost index), which is used as a loan rate standard, which is closely related to the market interest rate of 0 to 3-year bonds.” I have to do it,” he said.
Along with this, he added, “Changes in household income and stock prices are also indicators to be observed in terms of risk management,” he added. “We must also check countermeasures to prevent sporadic insolvency and lead to financial system risks.”
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