House prices drop from 2023… What you should never do right now Zipconomi TV

▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
In the book, I thought it would rise until 2023. Why is it rising until 2023, and when is the adjustment period?

▷Samtoshi
The same is true of stocks, but real estate is viewed as a kind of financial technology. Wouldn’t it be better to go in cheap and sell it at a high price if possible? So it’s better to keep the outlook, so I’ve been doing it, and there’s a reason to see it as the mid- to long-term high in 2023-2024. First, the Seoul real estate downside pressure event awaits. Around 2023-2024, the number of occupants in Seoul apartments temporarily increases again. Dunchon Jugong, Gaepo Jugong Complex 1 and 4, Sinbanpo 3rd Complex + Gyeongnam (Raemian Won Bailey), Jinju, and Miseong Clover are moving in only in the southeast region, and it is expected that a large number of redevelopment areas such as Leemun Jangwi Search and other areas will move in in Gangbuk. This is the first signal that the bubble is extinguished as the number of occupants bursts when the Seoul real estate bubble inflates due to a sharp decline in occupancy volumes in 2021-22. The second is a couple in the 10th and 11th years of Gyeonggi Province in Seoul. These will begin to decline significantly from 2024. As the number of real demand for apartments in Seoul decreases, the demand side is under downward pressure.

Finally, it is the 3rd new city. We plan to start moving in as early as 2026. Looking at Pangyo, Gwanggyo, and Wirye, they moved in 7 or 8 years after the district was designated. Based on this, it is expected that the 3rd new town will start moving in from 2026-2027. Even if the 3rd new town doesn’t know the house price, it is likely to have a big impact on Seoul’s rental price. It is expected that the demand for new construction in Seoul will fall toward the 3rd new city because the new construction seeds are dry. In fact, it seems that the amount of occupancy in the metropolitan area will be greatly affected by the Seoul charter.

▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Homeless people who want to get their own home, one homeowner who wants to change, and investors who want to buy more should target when and where?

▷Samtoshi
To tell you on the premise of what I expected, the homeless people are now in an ambiguous time. You have to buy it now and sell it in the mid- to long-term highs of 2023 and 2024, or wait until the mid- to long-term lows to come after that. Both have one and one point. What is certain is that even if you live now, do not live too much. It peaked in 2009 and then fell until 2013, and many people forget about the decline over 4 or 5 years. Multi-homed people suffered a lot, and I presented it as an example in my book, but the Eunma apartment in Daechi-dong in 2009 went up to 1.3 billion, then dropped to 8, 900 million in 2013, and recovered to 1.3 billion in 2016. Those who lived in 2009 recovered to their original point in 2016, and those who lived in 2013 rose 400 million in three years. It is very important when you live. That’s why I think it’s difficult to do it even though it has more upside.

1 Homeowners’ endurance strategy has become important. The transfer became ambiguous. The transfer tax has increased and the acquisition tax is also high. It is difficult for some time to change in the case of seniors or Seoul. However, the housing you own also has the potential to upside, so it is necessary to consider changing at the mid- to long-term peak while aiming for a bull market. Multi-homed people personally need to reduce their size by 2023 and 2024. It is a burden because the tax on the tax will increase significantly by 2025. Some people say that it is possible to transfer the rent to cheonsei, but in 2023-2024, the cheonsei crisis will somewhat ease. Reducing the size is necessary for risk management.

▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Where should you pay attention this year?

▷Samtoshi
The gap between the Seoul region is being greatly improved. In 2021, Seoul and local decoupling could be achieved again. As the provinces surged again, the merit of undervalued Seoul decreased, and the expansion of the target area for adjustment made the investment map of Seoul and the provinces flat. Another is that large amounts of investment demand flowed into the provinces in the second half of 2020. As the chartered sales turn to increase again, the relative increase in local charter prices compared to Seoul is weakening. On the other hand, investment demand in Seoul is relatively decreasing. It is a real and driving market. As the number of occupants has fallen sharply, the charter price is on the rise. Seoul is gaining momentum again.

I think the competitiveness of direct access will become stronger in the future. This is because women’s social activities are on the rise, and the need for joint parenting will increase after marriage. Residential neighborhoods close to work are gaining popularity. Even if it’s not your own job, it will be more popular in areas where businesses are growing. If possible, it is recommended to go to the non-popular area station area even if the area is farther than the popular area non-station area. In the case of Japan, as the aging population gets worse, the range of the station area narrows. This is because the range that the elderly can walk around is limited. Japan has narrowed the distance from 700m to 500m. This is because the number of older people has increased. In other words, Japan shows that the popularity of the station area is increasing. The difference between station zones and non-station zones will increase.

The current station area is expensive, so it is recommended to aim for a place that will become a station area in the future. There are routes that have started construction in the future. It is necessary to aim for a route with excellent accessibility to major business districts such as the Metropolitan Express Railway (GTX)-A or the Sinan Line. In the metropolitan area, it is worth paying attention to areas where jobs are increasing. Pangyo, Gyeonggi, Songdo, Incheon, etc. In Pangyo, it may be somewhat reduced due to the spread of working from home. Songdo is a relatively promising area as the number of occupants decreases in the future and several bio companies move in or grow in size.

▶ Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
What is the prospect of the local real estate market?

▷Samtoshi
In my judgment, the rise is strong because there is strong liquidity in the provinces, but Busan is the one that looks better. The housing purchase burden index is undervalued compared to the mid- to long-term average. Second, the number of licenses and permits is decreasing. This suggests that the number of occupants will decrease after 4 or 5 years. Of the six metropolitan cities, the number of licenses in Busan has decreased the most. Third, Busan and Incheon are where the proportion of financial asset holders of over 1 billion won is increasing. A lot of cash-rich means there are many people who can afford to buy a home. It can be said that Busan and Incheon, where cash riches are increasing, are relatively noteworthy among metropolitan cities. Outside of metropolitan cities, we need to be careful in the mid to long term. The decline in the population of Japanese nationals is in full swing, and the population of Korea is also starting to decline. When the population begins to decline, it is driven to the key. A theory that is often talked about, when drought hits a lake reservoir, the fish at the edges are trapped in a pond and die. Eventually, you are driven to the center of the lake, the real estate core. More station areas and more infrastructure. This phenomenon is accelerating as Korea also started to decline in population. We must make efforts to go to Seoul, the capital area, which is the core of Korea. Provinces must approach metropolitan cities.

Planning Zipconomi TV
General Manager Sung-keun Cho, Construction and Real Estate Manager
Reporter Jang Hyun-joo
Filming PD Kim Doogyeom and PD Cho Minkyung
Editorial Cho Min-kyung PD
Produced by The Korea Economic Daily, Hankyung.com

Reporter Ayoung Yoon [email protected]