Highest pre-voting rate of all time 20.5%, who has the advantage? Songpa, the number one increase

As the pre-voting rate for 4·7 re-replacement recorded the record high (20.5%), the ruling and opposition parties are arguing for sub-arrivalism with each other. Regarding the pre-election of the mayor of Seoul, which recorded 21.9%, “I see a high pre-voting rate positively” (Park Young-seon, candidate for Democratic Party), “The number of people who came to judge Moon Jae-in government’s incompetence, reality, and corruption” (Oh Se-hoon People’s Power Candidate) is the opposite interpretation.

Democracy, the memory of the 4·15 general election turned over by pre-voting

4ㆍ7 By-election pre-voting was held for two days, together with Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon (left) at the pre-voting office at Jongno-gu Office, Seoul on the 2nd, and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, the power of the people, at the pre-voting office at Jayang 3-dong Community Center, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul on the 3rd. Each is voting in.  yunhap news

4ㆍ7 By-election pre-voting was held for two days, together with Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon (left) at the pre-voting office at Jongno-gu Office, Seoul on the 2nd, and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, the power of the people, at the pre-voting office at Jayang 3-dong Community Center, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul on the 3rd. Each is voting in. yunhap news

It is because of past experience that the Democratic Party expects a high pre-voting rate. Democratic supporters tend to prefer pre-voting, so the higher the pre-voting rate, the more favorable to the Democratic party affiliated parties. Indeed, pre-voting played a decisive role in the Democratic Party’s battlefield victory in the 4-15 general elections last year. Democratic Party member Kim Doo-gwan (Yangsan-eul), who won by 1523 votes, reversed the result of the main voting with the pre-voting gap (4990 votes), and Democratic Party member Kim Nam-guk (Ansan member-eul) also won by 3653 votes thanks to the pre-voting gap (5721 votes). Reaped.

The Democratic Party believes that the so-called ‘Shai Progress’ appeared on the pre-voting hall in this election as well. Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Young-bae said on the 4th, “We recorded the highest pre-voting rate ever, but it seems that the supporters of the Democratic Party voted a lot. Looking at Seongbukgap (own district), the turnout of Samseon, Jeongneung, Seongbuk, and Gileum 1-dong is high, and I am excited.” Democratic Party spokesman Shin Young-dae argued, “The pre-voting rate, which recorded the highest re-election in history, was an open vote to judge candidates for the power of the people stained with lies and suspicion and protect candidates Park Young-seon and Kim Young-chun.”

The Democratic Party has won all three national elections in recent years, when the pre-voting rate exceeded 20%. During the 2018 local election, the Democratic Party intensively encouraged pre-voting, saying, “If the pre-voting rate exceeds 20%, five female lawmakers from our party will dye blue hair as a token of appreciation to the public.”

People’s Power, Inspiring 2030 Support, “The Peak of Anger”

4.7 The pre-voting booth at Yongsan Station in Seoul is crowded with voters on the 3rd, the day after the preliminary voting for the Seoul Mayor's by-election.  News 1

4.7 The pre-voting booth at Yongsan Station in Seoul is crowded with voters on the 3rd, the day after the preliminary voting for the Seoul Mayor’s by-election. News 1

On the other hand, the power of the people judges that the formula of’increased pre-voting rate = democratic party advantage’ has been broken. The basis for confidence is that the opposition support rate is high among the generations in their 20s and 30s, who actively participate in pre-voting. The power of the people is using a strategy of giving a speech in support of Candidate Oh by putting voters in their twenties on the streetcars as the 2030 approval rate showed strong in recent polls.

The background of optimism is that the proportion of people aged 60 and older, who are the fixed supporters of the people’s power, among pre-voters is steadily increasing. The percentage of pre-voting over the age of 60, which was 20.2% during the 19th presidential election, steadily increased through local elections in 2018 (26.1%) and general elections last year (30.8%). It is judged that the increase in the pre-voting rate is no longer a disadvantage to the opposition.

People’s Power Spokesman Bae Joon-young said, “The high pre-voting rate shows that voters’ anger against the regime has reached its peak.” We couldn’t stop the march.”

When looking at the distinctive turnout,

On the 3rd, the last day of pre-voting for the 4ㆍ7 re-election, voters are waiting for the pre-voting order at the pre-voting center at Godeok 1-dong Community Center, Gangdong-gu, Seoul.  yunhap news

On the 3rd, the last day of pre-voting for the 4ㆍ7 re-election, voters are waiting for the pre-voting order at the pre-voting center at Godeok 1-dong Community Center, Gangdong-gu, Seoul. yunhap news

When looking at the pre-voting rates of Seoul, it is ambiguous to consider whether or not a specific political party is liable. Songpa-gu, with strong opposition support, rose 3.8 percentage points (19.6% → 23.4%) compared to the 2018 local elections, recording the highest increase, but Seongbuk (19.27% ​​→ 22.97%) and Seodaemun (19.38% → 23.02%) The increase in pre-voting rates in strong regions of the ruling party such as Nowon-gu (18.4% → 21.97%) also recorded the top spot.

Park Dong-won, CEO of Polycom, a political consulting firm, said, “As the number of people appearing in the pre-voting room has increased overall, it is not meaningful at the moment to argue for good or bad reasons. He pointed out that when former President Park Geun-hye was elected, there were cases where a large number of elderly people were crowded to vote on the same day because of the saying that the’pre-voting rate was high’.”
Reporters Han Young-ik and Sung Ji-won [email protected]


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