Candidate Ahn Chul-soo (left) and People’s Power Candidate Oh Se-hoon in the 4/7 Seoul Mayor’s by-election. Hankook Ilbo data photo
“I am sure that the single candidate for the opposition of the 4·7 mayor of Seoul will be confirmed as a candidate Oh Se-hoon.”
Kim Jong-in, chairman of the People’s Power Emergency Response Committee, made this affirmation after meeting with Candidate Oh and merchants in Myeong-dong, Seoul. In a recent public opinion poll, Candidate Oh has never outlawed candidate Ahn Chul-soo by more than the margin of error, but why did Chairman Kim reveal his confidence?
Google search volume, Oh Se-hoon reversed Ahn Cheol-soo
An official of the People’s Power said on the 11th, “The polls of Candidate Oh and Ahn are Park Bing, but Candidate Oh is dominant in the indicator that reflects the interest and attention of public opinion.” The index he mentioned is’Google Trend’, which indexes the number of times Google users search for a specific keyword. You can grasp the public’s interest by setting the day with the highest Google search volume as 100 and comparing the trend of the relative search volume.
In recent Google trends, the search volume for’Sehun Oh’ has reversed the volume of searches for’Ahn Cheol-soo’. Candidate Ahn led the issue of unification of opposition rights after the declaration of running for mayor of Seoul in December last year, surpassing Candidate Oh in the search volume for three months. However, on the 4th, when Candidate Oh was decided as the final candidate for the power of the people, the number of searches for Candidate Oh was 100, far ahead of Ahn’s highest record of 66 (declaration date). It is analyzed that the search volume also surged as Candidate Oh overturned expectations and defeated former lawmaker Na Gyeong-won, a strong rival.
The 2016 U.S. presidential election is the background for keeping an eye on Google Trend figures. The then Republican candidate Donald Trump was expected to be defeated by the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in a poll. However, Trump outpaced the Google Trends index during the election and eventually won. This is the reason the people’s power is against the recent Google trend toward Candidate Oh.
However, some point out that it is impossible to grasp Google Trend as’support’ for a specific candidate. This is because the search volume may increase due to negative issues such as scandals. Trump outperformed Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the 2020 U.S. presidential election in Google Trends, but lost.
A comparison of the Google search volume of candidate Oh Se-hoon and National Assembly candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who ran for the 4·7 Seoul Mayor’s by-election. Google Trend Capture
Pay attention to the’unfavorable fight’… US presidential election case in 2016
There is also an opinion that the process of unifying the opposition candidates and the fight against unfavorable feelings in the final are also important. An official from the power of the people said, “The re-election has a relatively low turnout, so it is necessary to draw supporters to the polling place, but candidates with high unfavorable feelings have less power.” Expected.
Even in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, unfavorableness was a major factor in the struggle. Clinton had a relatively high approval rating, but also significantly outpaced Trump in disfavorability, revealing limitations in mobilizing supporters to the ballot.
There are many analyzes that the reason why Candidate Oh was easily elected in the People’s Power Contest was because he won the’unfavorable fight’ with former lawmakers. Former lawmaker Na, who has built an image of ‘strong conservative’, was pushed to candidate Oh, who offered a ‘reasonable conservative’ as the liberal and middle class became more unfavorable. However, it is unclear how effective Candidate Oh’s image will be in the competition with Candidate Ahn, who has established himself in the middle camp after initiating politics.
People’s Strength Kim Jong-in, chairman of the Emergency Response Committee, speaks at the’People’s Strength 4·7 By-election Central Committee Compulsory Resolution Conference’ held at the company in Yeouido, Seoul on the 11th. yunhap news
Chul-soo Ahn refutes “It’s just a convention effect”
Candidate Ahn’s opinion is different. Candidate Oh is currently enjoying the convention effect (increased approval ratings after political events) due to his victory in the People’s Power Contest, but he refutes that it is difficult to see it as the full competitiveness of Candidate Oh.
Lee Tae-gyu, Secretary General of the People’s Party, said in a radio interview on the 9th. I will analyze it.
Another member of Candidate Ahn also said, “After the resignation of former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol on the 4th, it should be seen as a phenomenon that the popularity of opposition candidates rises with the expectation of the reorganization of opposition powers.” “It’s a real indicator.”
Jihyun Kim reporter [email protected]
News directly edited by the Hankook Ilbo can also be viewed on Naver.
