In addition, candidates for the 4-7 Seoul Mayor’s by-election by major political parties, including Democratic Party Park Young-sun, People’s Power Oh Se-hoon, and People’s Party Ahn Chul-soo (from left), have been confirmed. Candidate Se-Hoon Oh and Chul-Soo Ahn plan to begin negotiations for the unification of opposition candidates soon. Joint coverage photo
On April 7th, the mayor of Seoul and the mayor of Busan will be elected again. It is a match that cannot be backed down because it is a preliminary battle ahead of the presidential election in March next year. This is even more so in Seoul, the capital city of South Korea’s’wind vane of public sentiment’. The ruling party is aiming for Suseong and the opposition party is aiming for restoration. A month ahead of the election, candidates for the mayor of Seoul from major political parties are appearing, but the draw has not been confirmed yet. This is because the process of unifying candidates remains. Unification is the biggest challenge in opposition to win the Seoul Mayor’s election in 10 years. The need for unification is proved by public opinion polls. (MBC) commissioned Korea Research and surveyed 804 voters in Seoul on the 8th and 9th of last month. It was 18.7%. The Democratic Party’s dominance in a multilateral confrontation with all the Big Three candidates running. However, in the bilateral composition, Candidate Park showed an advantage of 45.3%-36.1% in the confrontation with Candidate Oh, but with Candidate Ahn 41.9%-41.4% and Park Bing (Sampling error is ±3.5% points at 95% confidence level). In the recent bilateral confrontation survey, Candidate Ahn was 41.9%, leading Candidate Park (39.9%) within the margin of error. This is the result of a survey of 814 voters in Seoul on the 18th and 19th of last month by the Korea Institute for the Future and the Research Institute of Future Korea commissioned PNR Research. The confrontation between Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon was 41.5%-31.6% (the sample error is ±3.4% points at the 95% confidence level). Seems to be. As the opposition insisting on the’Moon Jae-in government judgment’, the justification and reason for unification are clear.
material photo” alt=”Peace Democratic Party President Kim Dae-jung and Unification Democratic Party President Kim Young-sam who turned their backs on the breakdown of unification of candidates in November 1987. Peace Democratic Party President Kim Dae-jung and Unification Democratic Party President Kim Young-sam who turned their backs on the breakdown of unification of candidates in November 1987. <한겨레> Material photo
When they come together, they live, and when they scatter, they die.
There is only one person who wins the election, whether the president or the mayor of Seoul. To win, you have to scrape at least one vote more than your opponent. Even in important elections in Korean politics, the unification of candidates was an important variable in terms of winning and losing. The unification of candidates has been a problem since the 1987 presidential election, the starting point of democratization. Although he won the straight line through the June Uprising, it is because both Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung, both fighters for democratization of non-appropriation, insisted on running. Although strong unification pressure was put on the civil society and various proposals such as the separation of president and party powers continued, Yang Kim’s distrust was strong. Even in the Kim Dae-jung camp, he was confident of victory by proposing the’four-way victory theory’. It was calculated that Roh Tae-woo from TK and Kim Young-sam from PK share Yeongnam tickets, and if Kim Jong-pil takes Chungcheong-pyo, Kim Dae-jung can win with only the metropolitan area and Honam vote. However, the final votes were Roh Tae-woo 36.6%, Kim Young-sam 28%, Kim Dae-jung 27%, and Kim Jong-pil 8%. The division of 1987 led to a delay in democratization, and the importance of unifying candidates as an election strategy was deeply imprinted. The DJP alliance, which was established before the 1997 presidential election, was the result of the opposition’s’pre-candidate unification’. Kim Dae-jung, who lost in the presidential election in 1992 following 1987, pulled out a card that no one could have imagined ahead of the’last match’. He had reached the threshold of death during the Park Jeong-hee regime, and he joined hands with Kim Jong-pil, the second leader in the Yushin regime. Kim Dae-jung actively attracted Jong-pil Kim through the branch of power, such as the position of prime minister and the amendment of the cabinet system, and expanded into the DJT alliance by joining Park Tae-jun. It was a strategy of’siege the New Korea Party (Kim Young-sam)’ comparable to that of the three-party political party in 1990, when Kim Young-sam joined hands with Roh Tae-woo. At the time, it was the atmosphere of the opposition that’I will not spill a grain of rice this time’, but the passport was different. The aftereffects of the fight by 9 influential candidates,’Nine Dragons’ were great. Lee Hoi-chang was confirmed as a candidate, but Lee In-je, who caused a sensation in the contest, founded the National New Party and ran independently. The results of the presidential election were Kim Dae-jung 40.3%, Lee Hoi-chang 38.7%, and Lee In-je 19.2%. The natural saying, “If you unite, you live if you scatter,” was proved again. In the 2002 presidential election, the unification of candidates was a dramatic device that caused reversals to reversals. Roh Moo-hyun, who was confirmed as a candidate for the Millennium Democratic Party’s presidential election in April of that year, had the highest approval rating of 60%, but his popularity quickly faded. I met Kim Young-sam while wearing a WS watch and insisted on the grand integration of the democratic forces, but he bought only half of the supporters, and suffered a devastating defeat in the local elections and re-elections he took in the front. In September of that year, the approval rating fell to 14% as negative factors such as President Kim Dae-jung’s son, corruption, etc. overlapped. On the other hand, Congressman Chung Mong-joon (Chairman of the Korea Football Association) declared a run for president, taking advantage of the soaring popularity after the 2002 World Cup semifinal myth, and even within the Democratic Party, voices for the unification of Chung Mong-joon as candidates grew. Roh Moo-hyun, who judged that it would be difficult to compete with Lee Hoi-chang in a multilateral confrontation, agreed to unify through a first-ever public opinion poll. He accepted all poll questions that were unfavorable to him, but he won dramatically. However, Chung Mong-jun withdrew his support for Roh Moo-hyun on December 18, the day before the presidential election. “There is a person holding a picket that says’The next president is Chung Mong-joon’, but don’t violate the speed too much. There is a’great praise woman’ Chu Mi-ae, and there is an advisor Jeong Dong-young who supported me when I was shaken.” It was a protest from Chung Mong-jun that Roh Moo-hyun’s remarks in Seoul Myeong-dong campaign violated the spirit of unification of the’joint government’. However, this was rather a consolidation of democratic and progressive votes and did not affect the general public.
Democratic Party presidential candidate Roh Moo-hyun and National Unification 21 candidate Chung Mong-joon hug after announcing the results of the meeting for unification of candidates at the VIP restaurant in Seoul on November 16, 2002. By Lee Jong-geun, staff reporter [email protected]
One successful, one unsuccessful
A new form of unification emerged in the Mayor of Seoul in 2011. At the time, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon resigned from the mayor’s post in August 2011 when he was rejected by the opposition party’s policy of free meals and asked for citizens’ opinions. With the election of the mayor of Seoul in October of that year, the opposition’s desire to put a brake on the runaway of the Lee Myung-bak administration, which is the fourth year in power, was strong. At the time, Ahn Chul-soo, the president of the Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology at Seoul National University, shook the election board as the rumors of the mayor of Seoul were running. He appeared in’Knee-Pak Dosa’ in 2009 and left a strong impression as’the good CEO who took the lead in combating computer viruses’, and he quickly emerged as a strong candidate with a 50% approval rating in the Seoul Mayor’s election poll. However, he declared his support for attorney Park Won-soon without conditions. Independent Candidate Park Won-soon, who won’Ahn Cheol-soo’s wind’, became the final single candidate for the opposition by playing a unified race with the Democratic Party (Candidate Park Young-seon) and the Democratic Labor Party (Choice Gyu-yeop). It was a special case in which an independent Citizen Candidate Coalition based on national support won the competition with the opposition party and achieved unification. Park Won-soon, who was a single candidate for the opposition in name and reality, won 53.4% of the votes and won a leisurely victory over ruling party candidate Na Gyeong-won (46.2%). Of course, candidate unification is not a’universal key’. Even if a one-on-one composition is formed through unification, the effect will be halved if the process is not beautiful. In the 2012 presidential election, both Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party (Democratic Party) and independent candidate Ahn Chul-soo had a clear sense of the goal that the Lee Myung-bak regime should be extended and Park Geun-hye in power should be prevented. However, at the time, the Democratic Party had a strong idea that it had to vote for the presidential election as the first opposition party, and Ahn Cheol-soo decided that’we are much more competitive in the bilateral confrontation with Park Geun-hye.’ On November 22, 2012, two days before the polling contest deadline, Moon and An had a discussion at the Grand Hilton Hotel in Hongeun-dong, Seoul, but they could not narrow this disagreement at all. It was reported that the two ended the discussion while having an argument, but rather hurt feelings. Eventually the next day, Candidate Ahn put down the candidate post, saying, “I declare that I will go to the Baekui Jong-gun army for the sake of the regime change.” It looked like a’concession’, but it was a resignation in the middle, which he didn’t want. The unification of the candidate, completed as a result of reluctance, did not produce a synergistic effect that brought the hearts of opposition supporters together, and candidate Park Geun-hye won 51.6% (48% Moon Jae-in) in the presidential election. It was the first majority vote since the introduction of the straight line system in 1987.
The multilateral battle is inevitable… What is the choice of opposition?
The Seoul Mayor’s by-election this year has many similarities with the elections 10 years ago. It seems like it was an election board that was suddenly set up a year before the presidential election, and the opposition is working on unifying two-stage candidates as at that time. The characters also overlap strangely. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who triggered the by-election in 2011, is now a candidate for the 1st opposition party again, and Park Young-seon, a candidate for the 1st opposition party, is now the ruling party. Ahn Chul-soo, who willingly surrendered the candidate’s position, has a firm determination to become the mayor of Seoul this time. On the 1st, it completed the unification of the 3rd zone with former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop, and the final unification is ahead with Oh Se-hoon, who was confirmed as a candidate for the people’s strength on the 4th. In a poll asking about the suitability of the opposition candidates between Ahn Chul-soo and Oh Se-hoon, Ahn is the absolute dominant. The power of the people who recognizes Oh’s inferiority is reducing the proportion of public opinion polls that are absolutely favorable to Candidate Ahn, and is discussing the fully open citizen participation contest, deliberation jury, and TV debate evaluation group votes. Of course, the Nationalist Party insists on the polls contest, saying that the citizen participation contest can be an organized election for supporters of the people’s strength. If the people show a stubborn attitude, saying,’The single candidate for the opposition is ours, the 1st opposition party’, the negotiation for unification may suffer and the unification of the candidate may fail in fact, as in the 2012 presidential election. However, outside the political sphere, the possibility of unifying opposition candidates is largely seen. △ In a situation where there is a negative evaluation of the Moon Jae-in administration, △ Their goal is the same as’to win the election’ △ For this purpose, the unification of opposition candidates is a rational choice. Yoon Tae-gon, head of The Moa Political Analysis Office, Agenda and Strategy Group, said, “The opposition supporters, including the power of the people, think it is important to win enough to raise Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol to the top of the presidential election approval rating and to accept Kim Jong-in as the party representative.” Because this is so strong, it will be unified.” The reality of the pressure for unification is the sense of urgency of opposition supporters who lost four consecutive national elections in the 2016 general election, the 2017 presidential election, the 2018 local election, and the 2020 general election. Yoon Hee-woong, head of the Opinion Live Public Opinion Analysis Center, said, “This election is about whether or not the opposition will recover its competitiveness a year before the presidential election. This is big,” he said. Professor Hyung-Joon Kim of Myongji University (Department of Humanities and Liberal Arts) also said, “Daejung Kim-Jongpil Kim and Moohyun Roh-Mong-Joon Jeong both united disparate forces, resulting in a great synergy effect. The same is true of the conservative people’s power and the middle-aged Ahn Chul-soo,” he said. “If unification fails and loses the election, the power of the people, the first opposition party, becomes more responsible.” As negotiations for the’real unification’ of the opposition parties begin, the passport can’t just watch it slowly. Candidate Jin-ae Kim of the Open Democratic Party resigned as a member of the legislator, asking the Democratic Party to introduce three unified discussions and electoral and jury votes. The Democratic Party, which wanted a natural unification with its sister party, the Open Democratic Party, voiced voices asking, “Should I waste energy for the final election?” The deadline for registration of candidates is the 19th. The unification war between the opposition parties began to mobilize their respective supporters to win the main election of the mayor of Seoul. By Kim Tae-gyu, staff reporter