High-rise apartment building in Seongsu Strategic Maintenance Area in Seongsu-dong, Seongdong-gu, Seoul. Reporter Ryu Woo-jong
The quietest election ever is coming. It is the re-election on April 7, 2021. This is the result of the addition of the’disappearance of dialogue’ in Corona 19 to the low attention to the re-election, politics boredom, election fatigue, and the frustration of’revolutionary candidates’. For the time being, we will not be able to gather with family and friends, so it is expected that a quiet election atmosphere will continue even during the Lunar New Year’s Festival called’Political Headlines.’ While talking about elections and hurting each other’s emotions can be prevented, there is also a side effect that reduces the effectiveness of the election, such as forming public opinion and electing citizen representatives. So this New Year, let’s talk about the elections with just a few people we can meet. In order to set up a rich’conversation’ table, I first heard the hearts of my family and friends that I could not meet during the holidays. I met voters in Seoul and Busan, which are electing new mayors. Having gathered the stories of various branches, it seems to be looming where the voters’ hearts will go beyond the 2021 re-election and in the 2022 presidential election._ Editor’s Note
Thirty-five, the second year of marriage, the anger of a bursts from the very point that everyone knows. “I rented an old apartment in the corner of Noryangjin in Seoul for 350 million won in May 2020. At that time, the landlord told me to buy it for 620 million won. I didn’t buy it. Now it is 100 million won higher than the price I called at that time!” The promise that the Seoul Mayor’s by-election voters a want is therefore clear. “To catch up on the insanely rising house prices.”
“I don’t think there’s an answer, Seoul”
At first glance, the economic theme of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election seems simple and clear. real estate. The median sale price of apartments in Seoul from 610 million won in May 2017 rose to 960 million won in January 2021 (based on KB housing price trends). Everyone said rising house prices. There was resentment against the government, which failed to catch the house price even with the measures 25 times. The nature of this vote has changed from a social thing that once shouted “justice and clearing the redemption” to a personal appealing my situation as a “thunderbolt”. The judgment of the past times that the government has wronged precedes the prospect for a better tomorrow. It is a personal and retrospective election. Opposition candidates do not miss an opportunity. “The most’bursting’ policy (of the Moon Jae-in administration) is the real estate policy, without hitting 24 at-bats.” (CEO Ahn Cheol-soo, President of the National Assembly Party) I stopped it.” (Former National Power Congressman Na Gyeong-won) However, the story of “A”, which was devastated and clogged up with desire, flows into “I don’t want to vote this time for the first time”. It was worth it. While the opposition candidates traveled all over Seoul, the increase in the sale of homes in Seoul was even steeper (0.4% compared to the previous month, as of January, Korea Real Estate Agency). They watched in vain and soon concluded with resignation. “I don’t think there’s an answer, Seoul.” After all, it is a frustration that everyone is familiar with. At this point, an important question lies. Why are some elections endlessly helpless, subject to plain and universal anger? Is it just a voter frustration without a solution to meet the needs? “The formation of voter preferences needs to be done on one side and a solution on the other. The solution is presented by the existing political parties and the media in the form of a dominant discourse, but there are cases where the voters only present insufficient information or deviate.” The normalization of house prices) seemed obvious. However, there is no or confusing language of politics that will be a clue to the solution. It is not known exactly what the’government failure’, the subject of judgment, means. As an alternative, everyone said’supply with only ○○’, but the’what kind of supply’ was really important was not a problem. Abstract failures and vague alternatives betray the anger that underlies the election. It leads to a further increase in house prices right away. How did this happen? Let’s go back in time.
The mistake of saying’home price stabilization’ instead of’falling house price’
In January 2021, President Moon Jae-in said at a New Year’s press conference that “there was an emphasis on real estate speculation, but in the end, real estate stabilization was not successful.” The media wrote that the president admitted to the policy failure. But what? Efforts to accurately explain whether the policy direction is wrong or the direction is correct but failed in detail is empty. Kim Seong-dal, director of the Real Estate Construction Reform Headquarters of the Citizens’ Union for Economic Justice, I think these words were necessary. “An error in which one side pretended to tighten speculative demand and made a bigger hole, such as excluding rental business benefits or excluding shopping malls and corporations, and a mistake in not supplying affordable housing to stimulate market prices by public enterprises.” And above all, there is a mistake in not giving the signal consistently and clearly that the goal is to’fall’ or’return to the original’ instead of the expression’stable’ in house prices. When real estate signals at least that it is a non-failure investment, demand drives up and prices skyrocket. A moderate ascent is impossible.” As such, various paths and possibilities of failure have been erased from the dominant discourse. The only thing left is’failure’, one word. The result? The alternative is’anything’ (defined as something) that the government’failed’ in catching the house price did not. Expansion of supply through real estate deregulation is of particular strength. The situation in Seoul was similar. During the days of former Mayor Park Won-soon, Seoul Housing and Urban Corporation (SH) did not actively disclose pre-sale cost or half-price apartment policy, which was effective in lowering house prices. Instead of using the land in large-scale housing development districts such as the Magok district to supply inexpensive apartments, they sold it to large companies at a low price. These points of failure were forgotten. Only the impression that’there was a reduction in the supply of apartments through the regulation of private reconstruction and redevelopment while devoted to the urban regeneration project’ stood out. The fact that the private redevelopment and reconstruction was initially stopped by itself because of the decline in house prices in the 2010s due to the lack of business potential, and therefore it was difficult to achieve a stable supply of future demand from the private sector. The cause of the misused failure again became the basis for supply expansion through deregulation.
Hankyoreh 21 ※ Click the image to see larger.
The price as it is desire keeps rising
There have been signs that real estate deregulation will emerge as an alternative from the second half of 2020. It was largely due to the ambiguity of the word’supply’ in policy. There are supplies that raise the price of houses, and there are supplies that reduce the price of houses. Therefore, the supply that is talked about without specifying the’what kind of supply’ has little to do with the decline in house prices (No. 1323’Government misunderstanding, supply alone does not catch the house price’) The key is not quantity. Any supply that gives unions and construction companies the opportunity to make enormous profits will increase the house price no matter how much supply is increased. Because it stimulates demand. Demand for private reconstruction and redevelopment is infested. At the time of pre-sale, the higher the ranking of the highest-priced apartments in the history of each reconstruction complex, the higher the level of surrounding house prices. The consumer becomes more urgent. “From the beginning, reconstruction and redevelopment are policies that promote demand.” (Chae Sang-wook,) On the other hand, there is also a memory of supply that lowered house prices in 2008-2013. Oh Se-hoon, who again became the mayor of Seoul, was proud of himself. “When I was inaugurated as the mayor of Seoul, I boldly disclosed the pre-sale price ceiling and pre-sale cost. I will remember the policy of’half-price apartments’ for Bogeumjari housing in the early days of the Lee Myung-bak administration.” It stimulated the surrounding real estate and led to a price decline. As an asset, its attractiveness fell, demand fell, and house prices fell again. Again, February 2021. Former Mayor Oh Se-hoon emphasized a different point from eight months ago, saying, “People who have land and buildings, and builders need to give a signal that they can make money if they build houses” (interviewed on February 2). Former lawmaker Na Gyeong-won visited Eunma Apartment, which is the symbol of Gangnam Reconstruction Complex. CEO Ahn Cheol-soo said, “I will try my best to facilitate reconstruction (for deregulation),” while visiting the old apartment. We only talk about supplies that have a lot of room to increase the price of the house. In the last week of January, reconstruction apartment prices in Seoul rose 0.28%. (Real Estate 114) Excluding December 2018, this is the highest increase rate. Videos are spreading on YouTube, explaining the best opportunities for investment in reconstruction and redevelopment, stimulating the demand for investment. The government also announced on February 4 that it would supply 320,000 houses by developing low-rise residential areas or station areas in Seoul. Although they put’public’ first, they told the former landlords (landlords) that they would release regulations such as △floor area ratio, △two-year residency obligation for reconstruction members, and △excess profit burden. It promised a 10 to 30 percentage point higher rate of return compared to the existing maintenance business to landowners who are laying the ground for urban redevelopment. On the other hand, there was no willingness to dampen the desire to go to apartments in Seoul by signaling that real estate prices were falling. It was decided to supply the apartments made in this way cheaper than the market price, but as long as the desire remains the same, it is not known how far the’price’ itself will rise. Some things such as “worries about the appearance of various cities that have their own needs such as low-rise residential areas” (Cho Eun-young, Director of the Korea Urban Research Institute) were buried. 320,000 households, for that number.
Homeowners’ anger to benefit homeowners
At this point, it is read that the place where the Seoul Mayor candidate’s appeal is directed is to increase the house price through favorable development and ease the tax burden (excessive profit recovery burden) through deregulation. The anger of homeless people is returning to the benefits of homeowners, landowners, and reconstruction investors. Is it an election strategy? The’Household Voter Hypothesis’ analyzes that in general, homeowners participate more actively in voting compared to homeless people. In particular, at the time when house prices are infested with the desire for a house, and many homeless people have reached the point of resignation, it may be more advantageous to touch the desires of homeowners. Above all, inaccurate failure diagnosis and ambiguous alternatives, the claim that’anyone can become a homeowner if the regulations are relaxed’ has become true. So, on April 7th, 2021, will A overcome the “unwillingness to vote itself” and head to the polling place? The question is wrong. Although it may not be the trick to solve the problem at once, will some candidate come up with a language that will only represent the anger of the homeless a? If that is not possible, the election results are not recorded only as defeats by the opposition parties. At least as far as real estate is concerned, it may be documented as the defeat of electoral democracy in 2021, taking advantage of that anger in the opposite direction. By Bang Joon-ho, staff reporter [email protected]