[아이뉴스24 장유미 기자] It was found that China’s share of the global export market and foreign direct investment showed an increase in global trade due to Corona 19, and its influence in the global trade economy expanded.
As a result of analyzing the changes in the global trade and investment structure and the direction of Korea’s policy response in the future due to the Corona 19 pandemic by the FKI on the 9th, the world trade volume in the first to third quarters of last year decreased by 10.6% from the same period of the previous year to $12,5168 billion Recorded. This is due to the impact of economic blockade measures in each country as Corona 19, which had been limited to China and other Asian countries until February of last year, spread to the world including the United States and Europe from March.
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the annual global trade will decline by 9.6% compared to the previous year as global trade began to recover from the third quarter of last year through the ‘2021 Global Economic Outlook’.
This is the third time since the 1997 global foreign exchange crisis that world trade has experienced a sharp negative growth in the 10% range. Earlier, in 2008, due to the global financial crisis, the volume of trade decreased by 23.6% compared to the previous year, and in 2015, due to the sluggish economy in China, it decreased by 12.9%.
In addition, exports to the world’s 20 largest exporting countries (as of 2019), excluding Vietnam, which has become a global production base, declined 8-25% from the same period last year until the third quarter of last year. Exports of major countries fell by double digits in the first to third quarters of last year due to a decline of 15.2% in the US, 11.6% in Germany, and 15.2% in Japan, while China, which is showing a rapid economic recovery compared to major countries, fell only 0.8%. In particular, exports in the third quarter of 2020 turned to positive.
As China’s exports declined relatively less compared to traditional export powerhouses such as the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, and the United Kingdom, the share of China’s global export market in the first to third quarters of 2020 increased 1.4%p year-on-year to a record high of 14.5%. Renewed.
Since 2016, China’s global export market share has declined from 13.9% in 2015 to 13.2% in 2019 due to the trade war with the US and the reorganization of the global value chain to ASEAN countries such as Vietnam. However, China, the first major country to show signs of economic normalization, rose to 14.5% in the global export market in the first to third quarters of 2020. On the other hand, the share of the U.S. fell 0.5%p from 8.8% in 2019 to 8.3% in the first to third quarters of 2020.
In 2020, the world’s foreign direct investment fell 42.3% year-on-year to $85.9 billion, with an increase of 13% in India and 4% in China. In the case of India, investment in digital infrastructure by global ICT companies increased as Google announced an investment plan to build a digital infrastructure in India worth 10 billion dollars in July last year, and in the case of China, the inflow of foreign investment into the service and advanced technology sector increased. It is analyzed to be according to.
FKI’s International Cooperation Office Director Kim Bong-man said, “World trade is expected to increase by 7-8% this year, and exports of Korea are expected to increase by 6-7% due to robust digital-related items such as semiconductors.” “Amid the continued spread of Corona 19 ▲ hegemony between the United States and China Continued war ▲ The spread of protectionism without distinction between developed and developing countries is highly likely to act as a factor in foreign trade insecurity.”
In fact, in November last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping officially announced the promotion of membership to the CPTPP at the APEC summit, and Catherine Tai, the new USTR (trade representative) nominee, cited China’s response to unfair trade practices as a top priority trade task of the Biden administration. In the meantime, there is a high possibility that the US-China trade conflict will continue.
Kim said, “To prepare for this, our trade authorities should strengthen the conditions for domestic and international accession to CPTPP, which is likely to become a new global trade and commerce platform,” said Kim. “As the proportion of China in the global economy increases day by day, China’s 5G, “Our companies should actively advance into the expansion of investment in new infrastructure such as IDC,” he said.
He added, “As protectionist measures against South Korea by new southern countries, including China and India, are increasing as a result of Corona 19, the trade authorities should also strive to strengthen trade diplomacy against these countries.”
Reporter Jang Yoomi [email protected]