[뉴스핌 베이징 = 최헌규 특파원] China is expected to record a 2.3% growth rate in 2020, followed by an accelerated economic recovery, to record more than 8% in 2021, and double-digit growth as high as 2021.
After pointing out that the economy, which reversed 6.8% in the first quarter of the 2020 Corona 19 shock, showed a sharp rebound in the third quarter (4.9%) and the fourth quarter (6.5%). As the trend continues, it is predicted that the economic situation in 2021 will show a trend of low and high.
On the 18th, researcher Lan Xingzhou predicted that the Chinese economy showed strong resistance to huge challenges at home and abroad, such as Corona 19 in 2020, shortly after the release of key economic indicators for 2020 by the National Bureau of Statistics, and predicted that it will show a high growth rate of 8% to 9% in the first quarter of 2021.
In 2021, it is expected that the Chinese economy will show a new growth pattern of a cycle of growth driven by mutual interaction between the domestic market and the overseas sector, centering on domestic consumption.
The research center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that the rate of economic recovery this year will be even faster than last year, and the GDP growth rate for 2021 alone is 8.5%. The Chinese Academy of Sciences also predicted that the economy of 2021 will show a low and high trend in the second half of the year rather than the first half.
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| [뉴스핌 베이징 = 최헌규 특파원] 2021.01.18 [email protected] |
The Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that the growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 will soar 16.3% due to the base effect, then reach 7.3% and 6.3% in the second and third quarters, respectively, and will slow to 5.8% in the fourth quarter.
In a report released after the release of the growth indicators in 2021, Minsheng Securities said in a report released this spring that the pace of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 could soar to double digits, up to 20%, although it is liquid depending on the situation of Corona 19 this spring.
Deutsche Bank’s chief economist in China predicted that in 2021, China’s GDP growth would reach a double-digit 10%.
Regarding the monetary policy of 2021, which the market is paying attention to, experts predict that monetary policy will not turn into sharp austerity or cause a liquidity crunch in the money market.
Experts diagnose that although the Central Economic Cooperation Conference held from December 16-18, 2020 was concerned about the aftereffects of some excessive policy stimulus, the authorities as a whole will focus on the continuity of policy and operate monetary policy stably.
China may make fine adjustments according to the economic situation, but it is expected that this year, the first year of the 14.5 Plan (2021-2025), will release sufficient funds for strategically needed areas and the real economy.
In its report, Kooksung Securities said that monetary policy in 2021 will change gradually without rush and that it is highly likely to show an easing phase in the short term.
Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced major economic indicators for 2020 at a press conference in the press conference of the Chinese State Council’s newspaper office at 10 am on the 18th. It said that it reached 2.3%.
Beijing = Correspondent Heon-kyu Choi [email protected]