“Eventually, it will be close to 2%”… LH direct hit 與, there was a corner to believe

In a call with the JoongAng Ilbo on the 16th, Jung-jin of the Democratic Party, which has a regional district in Seoul, predicted the by-election of the 4/7 mayor of Seoul in this way. As LH (Korea Land and Housing Corporation) executives and employees’ suspicion of speculation in the 3rd term Shintogi bombarded their passports, the Democratic Party is also being pushed out of opposition candidates in Seoul. Even within the party, there is a self-help, “Isn’t the situation better in Busan, where the LH variable doesn’t have a big impact?” (Democratic Party official). Considering this situation, Lee Jung-jin’s words are quite hopeful. What are the variables that the Democratic Party expects in this situation?

As for the elections held one year before President Moon Jae-in’s term of office, the ruling of the regime’s ruling is inevitable. The fact that the prescription of the Blue House and the passport against the LH speculation suspicion does not alleviate public anger is an analysis that the anger of “what on earth did you do for four years?”

From the perspective of the Democratic Party, there is a sense of crisis that even the middle class will inevitably lose the opposition candidate, saying, “I will judge the government.” It is judged that there is a chance to win by going to the face-to-face match between the support groups.

In the Gallup Korea poll (March 9-11), the approval rate of the Democratic Party in Seoul was 34%, and the approval rate of the people’s power was 26%. In the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, the Democratic Party was 30% and the people’s strength was 26%. The number of shamans (no designated party, no response) was 27% (Seoul) and 33% (Boo, Ul, Kyung), respectively. (For more information, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee)

Passport’s strategy is to engage in a “house rabbit sorrow” based on the relatively dominant party approval rating. A member of the Democratic Party in Seoul said, “If you reach the 40% level, which is lower than the voter turnout of the Mayor of Seoul in 2011 (48.6%), you will have a chance.” It’s advantageous,” he said. The Democratic Party is also attempting to shake the center’s vote with a negative strategy, such as raising suspicion of the opposition’s preferential sale of L-City (LCT) in Busan.

“The turnout rate will emerge as a last-minute variable depending on the weather and market conditions,” said Bae Cheol-ho, senior expert on Real Meter. On the other hand, Cho Jin-man, a professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Duksung Women’s University, said, “Most of the conservative and midway voters who want to judge the regime have already made up their minds. It is questionable whether the turnout will be low as expected of the passport.”

The passport stipulated the LH suspicion not only as a matter of the current government, but as a’real estate deposit’. President Moon Jae-in said at a State Council meeting on the 16th, “I regretted that I have caused great concern to the people,” and said, “If we clear the real estate abuse, it will be a turning point for our country to move toward a more transparent and fair society.” Then, the passport responded, saying, “I will take an example in the liquidation of real estate abuse” (Democratic Party representative Kim Tae-yeon) or “I support the determined will of the President” (Gyeonggi Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong).

After the LH suspicion arose on the 2nd, the passport came up with countermeasures such as special prosecutors, state affairs investigations, and total investigations by members of the National Assembly. A key member of the Democratic Party’s predecessor said, “If the LH suspicion had erupted before the election, it would have been out of control.”

Political critic Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute for Era Spirituality, said, “Passports are giving the image of a government that insists on the settlement of real estate abuse and solves long-standing evil habits. It will work.” On the other hand, inscription-oriented Democratic Party lawmaker Daseon said, “Isn’t the voters unsure that the results will come out after both the special prosecutors and the state affairs investigation are made,” he said.

Seoul Mayor Ahn Chul-soo and Oh Se-hoon’s Power of the People Whether or not the opposition of the Seoul Mayor candidate will be unified has become the last-minute variable that the Democratic Party expects in the Seoul Mayor’s election. It is predicted that if the unification of An and Oh fails and becomes a three-way composition, or the unification with large wounds is achieved, it is expected that it will be possible to aim for a gap. One of the Democratic Party members said, “It is a political situation that it is difficult for both An and Oh to retreat cleanly.

However, even in a three-way structure, the Democratic Party’s Seoul Mayor Park Young-seon is lagging behind the opposition candidates, making the Democratic Party’s outlook dark. In the Real Meter Poll (March 13-14) commissioned by Munhwa Ilbo, the approval ratings of the Mayor of Seoul were in the order of Candidate Oh (35.6%), Candidate Park (33.3%), and Candidate Ahn (25.1%). (For more information, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee)

A Democratic Party member from the Blue House said, “From the Democratic Party’s standpoint, it is a little more burdensome to be unified as candidate Oh, who has all the approval ratings of the people.

Reporter Kim Hyo-seong [email protected]