Even with the influence of the weekend, around 500 people are expected for the second day… Re-proliferation across the country

While the spread of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) in Korea has not subsided, the trend of the occurrence of confirmed cases is not unusual.

Since the 20th of last month (448), the number of new confirmed patients has fluctuated in the 300-400 range for more than a month, and eventually crossed the 500 line.

While there is no sign of an end to the’third pandemic’, sporadic infections are continuing nationwide, and the number of confirmed cases can increase at any time by increasing the amount of travel in spring.

The government is reinforcing quarantine by extending the current’social distancing’ (step 2 in the metropolitan area, step 1.5 in the non-metropolitan area) and banning private gatherings of five or more nationwide by two weeks until the 11th of next month, and strengthening the quarantine rules for multi-use facilities. It is a policy to continue to tighten the policy, but it is not expected to be easy to block the spreading tax.

◇ Following 500 yesterday, similar scale is expected today

According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 28th, as of 0 o’clock the previous day, there were 505 new cases of Corona 19 in Korea.

The number increased by 11 more than the previous day (494) and climbed to the 500. It has been 36 days since the 19th of last month (561 people).

The size of the new confirmed cases to be announced as of 0 o’clock on this day is also expected to be similar.

The quarantine authorities and local governments, such as the Seoul Metropolitan Government, counted 456 new cases from 0 to 9 pm the previous day, 12 more than the previous day (444).

Even considering the trend of not increasing the number of confirmed cases at night, it is expected to reach around 500.

On the previous day, the number of people increased by 61 more by 12 p.m., when the count was closed.

Usually, on weekends and holidays, the number of tests temporarily decreases, and the number of confirmed cases decreases until the beginning of the week, but rather increases. It is a proof that the spreading trend is not so serious.

For a week from the 21st of this month to the day before, the number of new confirmed patients per day recorded 456 → 415 → 346 → 428 → 430 → 494 → 505, exceeding the 400 mark in all except for a single day.

Among them, the number of confirmed local outbreaks, which is a key indicator of the adjustment of the distance stage and can gauge the outbreak in the local community, is an average of 422 per day, and is still in the range of 2.5 stages (over 400 to 500 nationwide, etc.).

The number of confirmed local outbreaks stayed in the 400 range on the 18th day from the 10th of this month to the day before. This is the 19th day.

◇ The spread of non-metropolitan areas’severe’… Infection route’unknown’ 26.9%

In particular, around 300 confirmed cases occur every day in the densely populated metropolitan area.

The previous day, there were 30 confirmed cases each from Chungbuk, Gangwon, and Busan, and the number of confirmed cases in the entire non-capital area reached 184, the highest in 57 days since January 29 (189).

In a specific case of infection, 42 people were confirmed in connection with a water purifier door-to-door seller who had lived in a camp at a closed school in Ganghwa Island, Incheon. Of these, 14 were tested positive in Ganghwa-gun and 28 in Gwanak-gu, Seoul.

In addition, there were additional confirmed cases related to the church in Jeungpyeong-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do (27 people cumulative), bathhouse in Jinju city, Gyeongnam (241 people cumulative), entertainment establishments in Geoje City, and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (179 people).

As such, with hundreds of confirmed cases every day, the number of patients with unknown infection routes is increasing, making it more difficult for the government to respond to epidemiological investigations and quarantine.

Of the 6,102 new confirmed cases that occurred from the 14th of this month to the previous day, 1,643 cases were investigating the route of infection, accounting for 26.9% of the total. About 3 out of 10 people don’t even know when and where they got infected.

This ratio has always exceeded 20% since the beginning of December last year, when the third epidemic in Korea was in full swing. In recent years, it has risen higher and is approaching an all-time high (December 26, 2020, 28.6%).

Infectious disease experts predict that the number of confirmed cases will increase further if the current trend continues.

Kim Moran, a professor at the National Cancer Center at International Cancer School, predicted an increase in the number of confirmed cases based on the analysis of the reproductive index of infection.

Professor Ki said, “As a result of the modeling analysis, the number of confirmed cases of local outbreaks will increase to 487 on April 9, two weeks later, and to 529 on April 23, four weeks later.” Suggested an expansion plan.

The Infection Reproduction Index is an index indicating how many other people around the person are infected by one confirmed person. If this index is less than 1, it is’prevention of the epidemic’. If it is 1 or more, it means’trend spread’. It is now at 1.06 level.

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