Input 2021.03.22 11:00
Real estate experts analyzed that house prices have risen a lot, but due to regulations, the limit on loans has decreased, fewer people can purchase houses on their own, and expectations for the number of houses that can be traded will increase. However, there are many prospects that it is difficult to say that it has entered a bear market. This is because there are still few cases of quick sale and there are not many price adjustments.
According to the weekly housing price trend for the third week of March, released in KB Kookmin Bank’s Live Real Estate on the 22nd, the Seoul apartment purchase advantage index was 82.4, falling below 100 for three consecutive weeks.
The Korea Real Estate Agency, the official real estate statistics of the government, still shows more than 100, but it is also showing a downward trend. The Seoul apartment sales and demand index peaked at 111.9 in the second week of February, and then 110.6 (the third week of February) → 109.8 (the fourth week of February) → 108.5 (the first week of March) → 107.4 (the second week of March) → 105.6 ( It fell to the third week of March).
The buying advantage index means that there are many buyers if the index exceeds 100 within the range of 0 to 200. If it is less than 100, on the contrary, there are many sellers. This means that there are now more people in the Seoul apartment market than those who are willing to sell their homes.
The volume of apartment transactions is also gradually decreasing. According to the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza, the volume of apartment transactions in Seoul in February was 2431, down 57.6% from 5,733 in January. Not all transactions have been registered yet, but it is clear that the trend is declining.
Real estate experts believe that the number of people who have to sell their homes on time has increased temporarily as prospective buyers have gone on to pay the spectator tax. KB Kookmin Bank’s chief real estate expert Park Won-gap interpreted, “The number of people actively trying to purchase Seoul apartments has declined, but it seems that the waiting demand is still condensing into a wait-and-see trend.”
◇ 3 reasons why the buyer’s advantage market is unfolding
Real estate experts analyzed that the reason for the unfolding of the buyer’s advantage market was that the price of apartments in Seoul had risen too much and that there was a growing expectation that the number of properties in the market would increase due to the tax burden. There was also an opinion that the fact that those with the ability to purchase houses had already turned to jeonse while waiting for the creation of the 3rd new town.
Most of all, the biggest reason is the recent surge in apartment prices in Seoul. According to Korea Housing Finance Corporation’s Housing Finance Research Institute, the housing purchase burden index (K-HAI) in Seoul in the fourth quarter of last year was 153.4, up 8.9 points from the previous quarter (144.5). This is the highest in 12 years since the fourth quarter of 2008 (157.8). The home purchase burden index is an index that represents the repayment burden when a middle-income household receives a standard loan and purchases a middle-priced home.
In this situation, end users are unable to buy a house due to loan restrictions. According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the average price of apartments in Seoul in February was 93.8 million won, up 6.67 million won (0.67%) from January. If you receive about 40% of the mortgage loan recognition rate (LTV), even if you receive a loan of about 360 million won, you have to raise 500 million won by yourself.
Another reason for the buyer’s advantage market is that there is a prospect that there will be more people trying to sell houses on the market due to the tax burden as the quoted price rises. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport raised the national average public housing price this year by 19.08% compared to the previous year. It is the highest in 14 years since the 22.7% in 2007, when the publicly announced prices were raised a lot at the same time during the past participatory government.
Myung-sook Ahn, head of the Real Estate Center of Woori Bank, said, “I think there will be one or two quick sale items on condition of the balance at the end of May. This is because there are retirees who are burdened with taxes and cannot give gifts to their children.”
Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) employees are creaking due to allegations of speculation on land, but the fact that a pre-subscription to the third new town is scheduled is another reason for the buyers’ return to the wait-and-go tax. Since the 3rd Lease Act was passed in July last year, many homeless people who have the potential to purchase have decided on the way to go whether they want to win the lottery for the sale of apartments in the 3rd new town or buy existing apartments by enduring 2-4 more years as a jeonse. will be.
◇ “It is still difficult to see it as the beginning of a bearish market…
However, there are many analyzes that it is a wait-and-see tax as there are not many items that are quickly sold down to 50 million to 100 million won or more because they are lower than the actual transaction price just before. The deal was weak, but the bear market was not unfolding. Rather, the transaction is sparsely traded, but the transaction price has become a reported price.
An official from the Y-accredited brokerage office near Apgujeong, Gangnam, classified as a barometer of investment sentiment, said, “It is only that the number of purchases is not reduced, and sellers do not intend to sell them even while adjusting the price.” There is no such thing as a quick sale because of their atmosphere,” he said.
According to the actual transaction price data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, 196.21㎡ (63 pyeong) for’Hyundai 1 Car’ in Apgujeong-dong was recently traded for 6.3 billion won. On the 1st of this month, 59㎡ (26 pyeong) for’Raemian Firstage’ in Banpo-dong, Seocho-gu, was changed for 2.6 billion won. The era of 100 million won per pyeong per 3.3㎡ has been opened.
An official from the N-accredited brokerage office in Seongdong-gu, Seoul said, “People who want to take advantage of the position of temporary homeowners to benefit from tax-free or sell them at a small price, but now people who want to buy are taxed, and there are not many people who want to sell,” he said. “Multi-homeowners are already It should be viewed as a situation where there is no arrangement or a gift, and neither buy nor sell.”
Yeo Kyung-hee, senior researcher at Real Estate 114, also said, “It is difficult to see that the price has turned to a downtrend because the number of occupants in Seoul has decreased significantly, and there is a possibility of a steady influx of buyers centering on the outskirts of Seoul and Gyeonggi mid-priced apartments.” You have to see as much as you entered,” he said.
“It is difficult to see it as a downturn and simply contraction of transactions is inevitable,” said Ham Young-jin, head of Jikbang’s Big Data Lab.