Even if the government shouts “believe and wait”… The people who experienced the ’25th’ are dubious

The policy solution that lost the rudder
Market anxiety cannot be resolved if short-term performance is expected
Believe in the policy of the consumer and make a follow-up plan to wait
Some have doubts about the “policy aimed at re-election in April”
There should be no victims of goodwill due to the relaxation of development regulations

The Moon Jae-in administration has come up with a 2·4 supply plan of a record-breaking scale, but the real estate market is still dubious. Even though the head of the housing policy went to the head of the housing policy, he said, “Please believe and wait,” but the measures that have been poured out have not been effective every time, and the reliability of the policy has fallen. Experts stressed that the most important thing is not to expect short-term results of this supply measure, but to relieve market anxiety through the government’s continuous follow-up management.

◆Consistency key to “continue to expand supply”

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 8th, the government is planning to supply housing mainly through various maintenance projects such as urban public housing complex project in station area along with public housing development. Even if the maintenance project period is shortened as much as possible by the public participation method, it takes up to 5 years from the start of the project to the start of construction. In addition, only 100,000 out of the 860,000 households that can be supplied in a short time, such as new construction purchases and remodeling.

Sim Gyo-eon, a professor at Konkuk University’s real estate department, predicted that “the government has come up with a number of plans, but most of them are supplied after 3 to 5 years,” and “it is difficult to expect a short-term effect or the rise in house prices.”

Experts point out that as there is a lag of several years for actual supply to increase, the government and politics must speak out consistently so that consumers can wait and wait.

Ahead of the announcement of the August 4 supply plan last year, the government made a difference over the issue of lifting the development restriction zone (green belt). Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and some members of the ruling party mentioned the possibility of the cancellation, but it was absent due to opposition from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and the Seoul Metropolitan Government. Disagreements between the Ministry of Strategy and Finance and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport over the reorganization of the real estate supervisory organization have also leaked. In this way, the volatility of the real estate market was bound to increase as the unripe policies within the passport were constantly disclosed. A real estate expert who requested anonymity said, “This time, most of the industry has announced that they will release the volume ahead of the re-election in April, and that they do not know how it will change later.” “The house price can be stabilized only when measures are followed.”

◆Securing fairness without’goodwill victims’

Starting from the announcement of the 2nd and 4th measures, the government’s claim that it will not give priority to supply (occupancy rights) if the government acquires real estate in the public-led development project area is increasing the opposition from multi-family and row house owners in the aged area. It is said that the transaction has already been “all-stop” because the housing is purchased before the development area is confirmed, but is subject to cash settlement if it is designated as a business area in the future.

Young-jin Ham, head of Jikbang Big Data Lab, said, “Not giving ownership of a villa in a deteriorated area that may still be promoted may raise equity controversy.” “The direction of regulating new construction or division of shares is correct, but in good faith. There may be a victim.”

This is not the first time that the equity controversy over real estate measures has been raised. The controversy over the retrospective application was raised as there were cases in which homeless people who had sold new apartments in newly designated locations during the June 17 measures last year were unable to receive balance loans due to the LTV limit. After the new lease law came into effect, the practice of giving the tenant an eviction benefit was established as more and more cases were not allowed to move in depending on the timing of the tenant’s exercise of the right to apply for renewal of the contract even if the house was purchased for the purpose of living. Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki also became controversial as it became known that he sent out tenants in the process of selling Uiwang Apartments in Gyeonggi Province in August last year.

Some point out that the government is lacking in communication efforts to properly grasp market trends and secure policy fairness.

Dae-Jung Kwon, a professor of real estate at Myongji University, said, “I have not heard that the government announced more than 20 measures and went through public hearings to collect opinions from local residents, local governments, and academic experts. “I didn’t do it, so it became difficult to make a voice pointing out at some point.”

◆’Floating countermeasures’ turned away from half of the people ‘Myungwoon’ after the Lunar New Year holidays

The ‘2.4 Supply Plan’ was announced, which included the expansion of the supply of housing in metropolitan areas across the country, including Seoul, but the market reaction was not clear. This is because of the limitation of’imaginary measures’, which lacks specific implementation cases. After the Lunar New Year holidays, it is expected that the’signal’ of supply expansion sent by the second and fourth measures due to apartment price trends, etc., has had an impact on the market sentiment, but this is also expected to remain unchanged. Apart from stabilization of house prices, it is analyzed that there is a high possibility that the range of mutual increase in sales and jeonse overlapped with the demand for relocation during the new semester will increase further. According to industry sources on the 8th, the second and fourth measures are expected to be put on the first test bench right after the Lunar New Year holiday. This is because the outline of the candidate site for the public implementation maintenance project is revealed by holding a briefing session after the holiday season. However, the industry believes that it is difficult to give a clear signal of supply expansion as the candidate sites, such as Seoul, are mainly small business sites.

In addition, if this happens, there is a high possibility that the 2nd and 4th measures and the Moon Jae-in government’s housing policy will suffer fatal injuries. In the meantime, the Moon Jae-in administration has failed to respond to the diversification of demand to remote areas such as the 3rd new city development, restraining private reconstruction and redevelopment in downtown Seoul. Accordingly, from the second half of last year, it gradually turned to the supply expansion of downtown Seoul, and this second and fourth measures have a meaning as a symbol of the change in the current government’s housing policy to further expand these quantities and to resolve them through public intervention.

However, since the 2nd and 4th measures are based on the voluntary participation of the private sector, there is a problem that no one knows how much the actual supply will be. Therefore, it is explained that there is a limit to preventing an immediate rise in house prices and a sharp rise in rented prices due to the fact that it takes time to supply them.

Lim Byeong-cheol, senior researcher at Real Estate 114, said, “The’keying’ of apartment prices across Seoul last year before the new semester can be reproduced, and if the outskirts steadily rises, even house prices in Gyeonggi-do may be shaken. “It’s a pity that it would have served as a momentum to alleviate the anxiety caused by supply shortages,” he said.

Even the people who have witnessed the price of a house that continue to rise despite the various measures taken by the Moon Jae-in administration are not expecting the effect of the second and fourth measures. Looking at the results released on the 5th by Real Meter’s poll on 500 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide at the request of YTN, 53.1% of respondents said that the 2nd and 4th measures will not help stabilize real estate prices. Came out as.

◆The price of the house where the reconstruction plan is going to rise and the landlord leaves

While the ratio of actual residences of apartment complexes scheduled for reconstruction in Seoul has steadily decreased, the price per unit area has increased.

In the case of Eunma Apartments in Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu last year, only 31% of the landlords lived, but the sales price rose to 2.1 billion won (85㎡).

On the 8th, the Korea Urban Research Institute announced this in the service report of the Ministry of State and Company, which analyzed 11,155 registered copies of Eunma Apartment, Raemian Prugio, Mapo-gu, Sanggye Jugong 5, Nowon-gu, and Hangaram Apartment in Yongsan-gu.

The average percentage of real residents in the four complexes was 32.7%, which has been on a downtrend since the initial pre-sale time. Silver horses accounted for more than half at 58.8% in 1999, but steadily decreased to 51.1% in 2005, 45.5% in 2010, and 36.6% in 2015. Mapo Raemian declined from 48.3% in 2015 to more than 2 percentage points per year since 2018.

In contrast, the trading price per unit area showed a tendency to increase from 2013.

In the case of Eunma, it dropped to 3,347 million won per 3.3 square meter in 2013, and then steadily increased to 8.204 million won last year.

The report stated, “It is desirable to abolish the long-term general private rental housing (purchase) of apartments with an obligated rental period of 8 years as a measure for July 10 last year, but excessive tax benefits given to registered rental housing owners such as 50% reduction in the special deduction for long-term capital gains tax. It still remains, and the problem of not being properly taxed unearned income is not being resolved.”

Reporters Park Se-jun and Na Gi-cheon [email protected]

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