Ministry of Industry, held a public hearing on the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan
“No forced abolition of new coal during construction due process”
Coal cap system started in 2022~2023’Price bidding system’
[이투뉴스] To reduce fine dust and meet the 2030 National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target (2030 NDC), the government will reduce the proportion of coal-fired power generation from 40.4% (as of 2019) to 29.9% in 2030 by 10.5%P. To this end, it plans to reduce the number of coal power plants with 58 units of 35.8GW as of this year in the order of 43 units of 32.6GW in 2030 and 37 units of 29.0GW in 2034, but the annual total amount of coal power generation will not be exceeded.
On the afternoon of the 24th, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy held the ‘9th Public Hearing on the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan’ at KEPCO’s Namseoul headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, and unveiled the basic plan for power supply and demand (2020-2034). Initially, the 9th plan was scheduled to be finalized in March last year, but it took nearly two years beyond the year due to delays in discussions on strategic environmental impact assessment with the Ministry of Environment.
The 9th power plan may be a policy plan established with a focus on replacing the traditional fossil energy-centered power generation mix with low-carbon and low-risk power sources with the advent of the new climate system. With the energy conversion roadmap (nuclear power plant reduction plan) already reflected in the previous eighth plan and the renewable energy 3020 implementation plan as constants, the key to this plan was when and how much to replace coal-fired power with gas power generation (LNG).
According to the GHG reduction roadmap revised and supplemented in July 2018, the annual emissions (2252 million tons) must be reduced to 193 million tons by an additional 34.1 million tons in the conversion sector (power generation) by 30 years. The most effective way to do this is to reduce coal-fired power plants with the highest carbon emissions per electricity production. This is because coal power plants emit three times more greenhouse gases than LNG and have the highest loads of fine dust and other air pollutants.
However, according to the 6th power plan established by the Lee Myung-bak administration, 7 large-scale coal-fired power plants were already being built, including Shinseocheon 1, Goseonghai 1 and 2, Gangneung Anin 1 and 2, and Samcheok Thermal Power 1 and 2. In addition, these new coal-fired power plant treatment problems have become an ambush for the current government’s GHG reduction policy. This is because the government has full authority over the power generation project license and grants the permit, so if the construction of new coal is stopped, the government has no choice but to take responsibility for the loss.
The fact that the government at a crossroads has set up a “supply and demand plan from the perspective of a typical public official, who does not do anything responsible” (from the power generation company) is an evaluation inside and outside the power generation industry looking at the 9th plan. In the 9th facility plan, the Ministry of Industry and Industry will build all of the existing coal-fired power plants as planned, but will sequentially close 30 decomposed coal-fired power plants with 30 years of operation, and fill the gap with 24 LNG alternative generators.
Accordingly, 2.6GW of 6 units including Boryeong Units 1 and 2, Samcheonpo Units 1 and 2, and Honam Units 1 and 2 will be abolished by 2022. By 2023-2030, Samcheonpo Units 3~6, Taean Units 1~4 Hadong 1~4 9.1GW of 18 units, including units 1 to 4 in Dangjin, units 5 and 6 in Boryeong, will be closed and replaced with LNG power plants. From 2031 to 2034, 3.6 GW of 6 units, including Taean units 5 and 6, Hadong units 5 and 6, and Yeongheung units 1 and 2, will be added to the alternative construction.
However, with the completion of 7 new coal units, 7.2GW, the number and capacity of coal power plants are expected to decline by 3.2GW from 58 units in 2020 to 32.6GW in 2030 (37 units in 2034, 29.0GW). When the government mobilized additional measures to restrict the total amount of power generation, the proportion of power generation in 2030 is expected to decrease by only 10%p from 40.4% last year. This is because even if the 10th old age is abolished, the larger 7th will come in.
After 10 years, the coal-fired power plant remains the country’s largest power source. The outlook for power generation in 2030 is unchanged from the current share ranking (coal 40.4%, nuclear power 25.9%, LNG 25.6%, renewable 6.5%) in the order of coal 29.9%, nuclear power 25.0%, LNG 23.3%, and renewable 20.8%. As of 2030, the expected power demand is 111.8GW, and the target demand through demand management is 100.4GW.
The Ministry of Industry and the Subcommittee are in a position that they did their best. Yoon Yo-han, head of the Electric Power Industry Division of the Ministry of Industry, asked, “Is it possible to achieve the GHG reduction target when the proportion of fossil fuels exceeds 50% in 2030?” He said, “We will achieve 1.93 billion tons of tons without a hitch,” he said. “If we can’t achieve this, we will put an additional limit on the annual power generation.”
Yoon also commented on the question about the consistency of the 2050 Carbon Neutral Declaration and the 9th Plan, “I think that it has presented a stepping stone to a 2050 carbon neutral society in the mid to long term.” Regarding the point that it is necessary to stop the construction of new coal, Lim Jae-gyu, head of the policy subcommittee (Dr. Korea Energy Economics Institute), said, “Through the 9th plan, we will boldly abolish half of the 60 units by 2034.” The new coal cannot be forcibly abolished without the voluntary decision of the business operator.”
It also dismissed the claim that construction of the Baekjihwa nuclear power plant should be resumed to reduce carbon. “It is true that nuclear power plants are effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” said Yun Yo-han, head of the power industry division. “Nuclear power plants are not a sustainable alternative when considering spent fuel or safety.” “We reaffirmed the basic principle that we will continue to maintain it as a major carbon-neutral power source for more than 60 years.”
Regarding the resumption of the construction of Shin Hanul Units 3 and 4, the head of the policy subcommittee, Lim Jae-gyu, said, “For the purpose of supply and demand planning, uncertain facilities must be excluded. Nuclear power plants are not seen as a fundamental alternative to carbon neutrality in terms of external costs and public acceptability, so it is inevitable in terms of supply volume. I didn’t reflect it.” According to this decision, Shinhanul Units 3 and 4 will go through the final blanking procedure from the expiration of the power generation business license period in the first quarter of next year.
The wholesale electricity market, which establishes an operation plan based on power generation fuel costs and pays for the settlement of nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants with the settlement adjustment factor, became inevitable. Lee Ok-heon, head of the power market division of the Ministry of Industry, said, “At the same time, price bidding will be implemented in 2022 or 2023, while environmental dispatch that reflects the cost of emission rights to the generation cost will be implemented next year. “I will promote competition within the amount of power generation by implementing it.”
“Now coal, LNG, and nuclear power plants have decided prices in one single market a day ago, but in the future, we will introduce forward markets and real-time markets, and the settlement adjustment coefficient will be abolished in the long term.” “The electricity market price) is formed, and accordingly, we plan to change to a system that is settled at the market price.”
Meanwhile, the expected power mix based on the rated capacity (equipment capacity) in 2034 is 77.8GW for renewable energy, 59.1GW for LNG, 29.0GW for coal, 19.4GW for nuclear power plants, and 7.4GW for pumped water. It was estimated that the proportion of distributed power sources, such as collective energy including, is about 21%.
Reporter Lee Sang-bok [email protected]
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