Electric car. Eco-friendly car (PG)▶ Click here to enlarge
It is predicted that by 2023, the price of electric sports utility vehicles (SUVs) in Korea will fall to a level similar to that of internal combustion locomotives.
It was analyzed that electric vehicles other than SUVs will have price competitiveness that can compete with internal combustion locomotives by 2026 at the latest.
According to the summary of Bloomberg Nef’s New Energy Outlook 2020 report by the KEPCO Management Research Institute on the 13th, global electric vehicle prices are expected to fall to a level similar to that of internal combustion locomotives as early as next year and at least within 10 years.
In the US and Australia, large electric vehicles and SUVs are expected to reach prices similar to those of internal combustion locomotives next year. Small and mid-sized electric vehicles are also expected to secure price competitiveness in 2024.
SUVs are the fastest in 2023 to have price competitiveness for each electric vehicle type in Korea. Following this, it is expected that mid-size cars will be in 2024, and small and large cars will be in 2026.
In addition, it is analyzed that the price of electric vehicles will fall to a level similar to that of internal combustion locomotives in Europe in 2022-2027 and in China in 2023-2029.
In Japan, EV prices are expected to drop only in 2025, starting with SUVs. In particular, the price of internal combustion locomotives for small cars is so low that electric cars are expected to become competitive in price only after 2030.
The biggest factor in enhancing the price competitiveness of electric vehicles is the decline in battery prices.
The report predicts that the price of lithium-ion batteries in 2030 will be $61 per kWh, about half of last year ($132 per kWh).
Battery prices have dropped to a quarter of an eighth level from 2010 to 2019 due to increased demand. It is observed that prices will continue to decline in the future due to continuous increase in demand, technology development, and decrease in manufacturing costs.
The report said, “In the case of the US, the share of batteries in midsize electric vehicle prices will decrease from 28% last year to 14% in 2030.”
Worldwide electric vehicle sales are expected to increase more than 10 times from 2.1 million in 2019 to 25.8 million in 2030.
During the same period, the proportion of electric vehicles in total passenger car sales is expected to increase from 2.4% to 28.0%.
It was analyzed that the global power consumption in the land transportation sector in 2030 will increase to 5.4 times that of last year as the spread of electric vehicles expands. This is much faster than the rate of increase in consumption of liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel, heavy oil and kerosene (1.1 times).
When to possess price competitiveness of electric vehicles by country▶ Click here to enlarge
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