Economic experts, this year’s employment increase from 180,000 to 50,000

Input 2021.02.07 13:29

KDI, expert economic outlook survey
Economic growth rate increased by 0.2%p from previous forecast to 3.1%

As a result of a survey conducted in January by the national research institute, the Korea Development Institute (KDI), domestic economic experts predicted that this year’s Korean economic growth rate was adjusted up 0.2 percentage points (p) to 3.1% from the previous forecast. However, employment continues to be sluggish and the annual increase in the number of employed is expected to be only 50,000. This is the result of a decrease of 130,000 people compared to the previous forecast of ‘180,000 increase’.

On the 7th, KDI released the February issue of KDI’s economic trends, including the results of the’January 2021 Expert Economic Outlook Survey’ containing the above. The median value was selected and presented from the results of the responses of 20 domestic economic forecasting experts.

Experts have raised the growth rate of Korea’s economy in 2021 by 0.2 percentage points in three months from 2.9%, the forecast of last October. This is 4.1 percentage points higher than last year’s economic growth rate (-1.0%). In 2022, the Korean economy is projected to grow 2.7%.

Experts predict that exports (in terms of amount) will increase significantly in the second quarter of this year, increasing 8.2% per year, and then maintaining a high increase of 7.3% in 2022. Accordingly, it is predicted that this year’s current account will record a surplus of 66.3 billion dollars, and a slightly reduced surplus of 60 billion dollars in 2022.

The unemployment rate was predicted to decline slightly from last year (4.0%) to 3.8%, and the number of employed will only increase by 50,000 in 2021, and the sluggish employment is expected to continue. This is a sharp decline from the 180,000 increase predicted in the survey last October.

Consumer prices are expected to remain on a low rise of around 1%, far below the inflation target (2%).

Most respondents predicted that the benchmark interest rate would remain at its current level by 2021 and will increase once in 2022.