Early to mid-300 today… Lunar New Year holidays and distance mitigation effect

The’third epidemic’ of a new coronavirus infection in Korea (Corona 19) is showing a brief lull during the Lunar New Year holidays (2.11-14), but concerns about re-proliferation remain.

From the 15th, the’social distancing’ of the metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas has been lowered to stage 2 and stage 1.5, respectively, and it is dangerous to open the doors to entertainment facilities such as clubs and pubs that have been closed for over 10 weeks nationwide. There are so many factors.

Moreover, while the epidemic situation in the metropolitan area becomes unstable again, if the infection caused by the mass migration of the population during the Lunar New Year holidays becomes a reality, and the side effects of easing distance are overlapped, there is a possibility that Corona 19 will spread again at any time.

This could lead to partial disruptions to the COVID-19 vaccination plan.

However, there are observations that if the new quarantine system based on autonomy and responsibility is settled, it can be helpful in responding to the long-term war on Corona 19, although the domestic medical response capabilities such as critically ill patients are sufficient.

◇ Expected to be in the early mid- to mid-300s, the effect of decreasing the number of inspections during the holidays The metropolitan area is still’dangerous’

According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 14th, as of 0 o’clock on the previous day, there were 362 new confirmed cases of Corona 19 in Korea.

It has been four days since the 9th (303) that the number of new confirmed cases has dropped to 300.

The number of new confirmed patients to be announced as of 0 o’clock on this day is also expected to reach 300 due to the effect of the holiday season.

The quarantine authorities and local governments, such as the Seoul Metropolitan Government, counted 303 new cases from 0:00 to 9:00 p.m. on the previous day, 42 fewer than 345 at the same time the day before.

Considering the recent trend of not increasing the number of confirmed cases after 9 pm, it is expected to reach the early mid- to mid-300s.

Although the number of confirmed cases is declining, it is too early to judge the trend as a decline in epidemic as this reflects the effect of a decrease in the number of tests during the Lunar New Year holidays.

The 3rd pandemic, which continued from mid-November last year, seemed to calm down in the new year, but recently it has soared to 500 people. Since then, it has passed 400 people and is now down to 300.

In the last week (2.7 to 13), the number of new confirmed cases was 371 → 288 → 303 → 444 → 504 → 403 → 362, showing a difference of more than 100 by day.

It is difficult to accurately determine which stage the current phase is spreading, slowing, or truly.

In particular, in the case of the metropolitan area, the number of confirmed regional cases per day on an average weekly has been increasing in the last four days, representing 265 → 244 → 258 → 282, and concerns about re-proliferation are not subside.

The quarantine authorities believe that the overall decline in the non-metropolitan area has been maintained, but the metropolitan area is in an unstable stagnation period.

If Corona 19 spreads through large-scale population movement during the Lunar New Year holidays or when a mutant virus that inflows from abroad, which increases daily, invades local communities in earnest, and apart from this, if a large-scale group infection occurs in the metropolitan area, the third pandemic will rapidly reappear. It is the judgment of the quarantine authorities that it can spread.

◇ Ease the distance and resume business of entertainment facilities… Keep banning meetings with more than 5 people

In the meantime, the government decided to lower the distance between the metropolitan area from the 2.5th stage to the second stage from the 15th immediately after the holiday season, and from the second stage to the 1.5 stage for the non-capital area.

Accordingly, in the metropolitan area, the operating hours of 480,000 multi-use facilities such as movie theaters, PC cafes, game rooms, amusement parks, academies, reading rooms, large marts, and beauty salons are released.

In the case of 430,000 places such as restaurants, cafes, indoor sports facilities, singing practice centers, door-to-door sales, and indoor standing performance halls in party rooms, the business limit is increased by one hour from 9 pm to 10 pm.

The maximum number of attendees for events such as weddings and funerals will also increase from 49 to 99.

In the non-metropolitan area, the restrictions on business hours of 520,000 places such as restaurants, cafes, and indoor sports facilities will be lifted. The number of participants in the event also increases from 99 to 499 in most cases, excluding assemblies and demonstrations, large-scale concerts, festivals, and academic events.

In addition, entertainment facilities that were suspended for 12 weeks in the metropolitan area and 10 weeks in the non-metropolitan area will also resume business. Instead, the door can only be opened until 10 p.m., and reinforced quarantine rules must be observed, such as moving seats or dancing.

On the other hand, the ban on private gatherings of more than 5 people, which is evaluated as controlling the spread of the third corona 19 epidemic, will be maintained for the time being. However, it was decided not to apply this rule to meetings of immediate family members.

The government explained that it was an inevitable decision taking into account the difficulties of the economy and social fatigue caused by the prolonged Corona 19.

Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun said at a meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters the day before. He asked the officials to make an effort to establish the’autonomy and responsibility’ that is the subject of quarantine.

◇ Measures considering fatigue and economic damage… Expert “Increase of confirmed cases is inevitable, preparation for 4th outbreak”

Experts partially agree with the government’s explanation that this was an inevitable option taking into account fatigue and acceptance, but feared that the number of confirmed cases could increase rapidly if it gives false signals to the public that the situation is improving.

Jeong Jae-hoon, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University, said, “It is a measure to keep a sustainable distance, but as the business hours in the metropolitan area increase from 9 pm to 10 pm, there is a concern that it may give false signals that’the situation is improving.’ After three weeks, the number of confirmed cases may increase,” he predicted.

Joong-sik Eom, a professor of infectious medicine at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said, “Because there are 300 to 400 new confirmed patients a day and the outbreak is unstable, it is not time to allow the business of entertainment facilities such as clubs.” He pointed out that on-site management must be thoroughly carried out so that a large number of confirmed cases do not occur at the facility.

Jae-wook Choi, a professor of preventive medicine at Korea University, said, “Because the ban on meetings with more than 5 people is maintained, the quarantine effect will continue even if the distancing step is eased, and it is an appropriate measure in the current situation.” It can be seen. While preparing for the 4th epidemic, more hospital beds and life treatment centers should be added,” he advised.

In relation to these concerns, the government announced that it will raise its distance if there are signs of re-proliferation of Corona 19.

In a briefing the day before, Kwon Deok-cheol, the first deputy head of the company’s scriptwriters (Minister of Health and Welfare), said, “If the third epidemic tends to re-proliferate, we have no choice but to raise the distance level again.” It is very important to practice the quarantine rules.”

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