President Moon Jae-in and Chairman Kim Jong-un are having a chat on Doboda-ri, Panmunjeom in April 2018. Reporter Ko Young-kwon
In the’North Korean nuclear power plant construction’ file produced by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and deleted prior to the audit of the Board of Audit and Inspection, there are three specific scenarios, including construction in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and transmission to North Korea. It was confirmed to be timely. How realistic are these scenarios? The nuclear industry and diplomats said it was a’scenario’, but the diplomatic environment surrounding North Korea’s nuclear weapons was neglected, and the evaluation was said to be “poor”.
① Sinpo nuclear power plant?…”NPT-IAEA-Across the US, etc.”
In the document titled “Plans to Promote Nuclear Power Plant Construction in North Korea,” published on May 14, 2018, released by the Ministry of Industry on the 1st, there are three types: △Use of Kumho District △Use of DMZ △Transmission using Shinhanul Units 3 and 4 An (案) was included. Government officials and experts pointed out that “whatever site, in what way, power is supplied to North Korea, it violates the United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea in that it provides economic benefits to North Korea.” The Ministry of Industry also wrote in the document that, “depending on the content and level of denuclearization measures between North America and the United States, there is very high uncertainty, so there is a limit to the derivation of specific implementation plans.”
The Ministry of Industry evaluated that “the first plan (Kumho District Plan) is convincing” in this document. The Kumho District refers to the Kumho District in Sinpo City, South Hamgyong Province, where the Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), which was established in accordance with the Geneva agreement between North America in 1994, built and stopped two light water reactors. It is a scenario that can be thought of as there is a history that has already been tried once, but it is close to common sense that it is impossible to proceed before North Korea’s denuclearization.
In a call with the Hankook Ilbo, Chun Young-woo, former chief of foreign affairs and security at Cheongwa University, said, “Building a nuclear power plant in North Korea is not only possible only after North Korea’s nuclear weapons have been dismantled and returned to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Because the nuclear power plant itself contains US technology, it is possible to obtain the consent of the US separately.” Even if the denuclearization of North Korea is complete, it is unclear whether the US will agree to build nuclear power plants in North Korea. The Ministry of Industry also evaluated that in the document, “It is difficult to control spent nuclear fuel, so discussions with major stakeholders such as the US are necessary.”
②”DMZ nuclear power plant?…”How to transport nuclear materials”
In the case of the construction scenario in the DMZ, there is a reaction that is even more “absurd”. This is because there is no advantage at all by constructing the DMZ while enduring military tension in a place where firepower between the two Koreas is concentrated. Professor Im Man-Sung of KAIST Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering said, “The reason that all domestic nuclear power plants were built near the sea was not only due to the problem of water supply but also because of the lack of overland conditions to transport nuclear material transport equipment.” It is questionable whether is suitable as a nuclear power plant construction site.” “The Ministry of Industry would not have known this aspect,” he interpreted, saying, “Isn’t (the DMZ nuclear power plant scenario) a dimension to show the government’s beliefs and will to realize peace on the Korean Peninsula?”
The DMZ falls under the jurisdiction of the UNC under the Armistice Agreement. Even if the two Koreas have agreed, they must go through consultations with the US, the real owner of the UNC. A senior military official said, “It may take several years to remove the mines buried in the DMZ,” he said. “There may be facilities that North Korea does not want to reveal, but it is questionable whether North Korea will accept it.”
③”Transmission is also a kind of bulk cache”
The power transmission plan using Shin Hanul Units 3 and 4, which had been suspended due to the current government’s decision to abolish the construction of new nuclear power plants, also violate the Security Council’s sanctions against North Korea. Shin Beom-cheol, director of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security at the Institute for Economics and Social Affairs, pointed out that “the power supply is also’bulk cash'” in terms of bringing economic benefits to North Korea.
The Ministry of Industry said in a document that “a national consensus is needed on the revision of the energy conversion policy.” If the construction of Shin Hanul Units 3 and 4 was resumed, the government was already conscious of the opposition from public opinion that would overturn the stance of the post-nuclear power plant itself.
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