Decreased housing transaction volume and lowered jeonse prices… Is it a sign of falling house prices?

February housing sales volume declined from January
The total price is also downhill to the center of Gangnam.
“Demand is not clear, but supply is also uncertain”

Photo = Yonhap News

Photo = Yonhap News

The tariff on the real estate market is increasing. The housing transaction volume is declining and the housing price outlook index is also declining. Preset prices, which influence the movement of house prices, are also calming. Experts disagree over whether such an atmosphere is a precursor to a decline in house prices.

February is because the number of business days is shorter than that of other months, there was a Lunar New Year holiday, and the second and fourth measures were announced. The trading volume indicator showed a decreasing trend this year, but it is still high compared to last year, which is why the outlook is different.

February Home sales volume declined… Chartered transaction volume increases

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 26th, the volume of home sales in February was 87021, down 4.0% from the previous report (9679). It decreased by 24.5% from the same month of last year (115,264 transactions). However, it has increased by 23.9% from the monthly average (72,77 cases) in the last five years.

By region, the volume of transactions in the metropolitan area increased by 0.6% compared to the previous year to 40,7433 cases, but decreased by 28.6% compared to the previous year. Seoul recorded 12,707 cases, an increase of 3.5% from January (12,275 cases), but a decrease of 23.7% from a year ago (11,666 cases). The number of provinces was 39,588, down 9.1% from the previous month and 18.9% from the same month last year.

Source = Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Source = Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

The number of apartment sales and transactions was 6,57 cases, down 6.7% from the previous month and 31.5% from the same month last year. There were 2,6964 housing units other than apartments, such as multi-family and coalition. It increased 2.5% from the previous month, but the one-year information decreased by 2.4%.

The cheonsei transaction volume, which had been stagnant after last year’s leasing law, is recovering. In February, the monthly rent transaction volume (as of the reporting date) was surveyed to be 19,9157 cases in total. It increased by 10.9% from last January (17,537 cases). Compared to the same month last year (22,417 cases), it decreased by 11.2%.

The volume of transactions in the metropolitan area (13,762 cases) increased by 12.1% compared to the previous month and decreased by 12.5% ​​compared to the same month last year. The number of provinces (68,395 cases) increased by 8.8% compared to the previous month and decreased by 8.4% compared to the previous year.

The cheonsei transaction volume increased by 8.3% from the previous year to 11,4730 cases, but decreased by 14.2% from the previous year. The monthly rent transaction volume was 84,427, an increase of 14.7% from January, but a decrease of 6.7% from the same month of the previous year.

Gangnam full set price declined… Will the house price finally fall?

The jeonse price, which can be said to be an indicator of the house price, faltered, and then turned to a decline in Gangnam. The Korea Real Estate Agency (formerly the Korea Appraisal Board) announced that the fourth week of March (as of the 22nd), the weekly apartment rental price in Seoul rose by 0.04%, reducing the increase from last week (0.05%).

Gangnam-gu fell by 0.01%, turning to a decline in 45 weeks after the second week of May last year (-0.01%). Songpa-gu also fell by 0.01% in 50 weeks. Gangdong-gu (0.00%) showed a slight increase, while Seocho-gu (0.02%) showed a slight increase. An official of the Real Estate Agency explained, “The rental property is accumulating mainly on the high-priced apartments where the property price has skyrocketed for a short period of time. It seems that the property price has turned down as landlords in urgent financial circumstances lowered the price.”

Decreased housing transaction volume and lowered jeonse prices...  Is it a sign of falling house prices?

Dongguk University adjunct professor Ko Jun-seok said, “Because there is no clear demand, such as marriage or moving, the wait and see tax in the jeonse or sale market will continue for a while.” He predicted that “a large drop in house prices seems difficult as there is no right supply, including apartments for occupancy.”

Meanwhile, according to the results of the March Consumer Trend Survey (March 9-16) released by the Bank of Korea that day, the housing price outlook index (124) fell 5 points a month. It is the index that continued to hit the highest level until the end of last year. However, it has been showing a decline for the third month this year.

Hankyung.com reporter Kim Hana [email protected]

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