Compared to March last year, when the corona effect began
Cause of worsening employment, cannot be attributed to corona
Employment prospects for youth and self-employed are not bright
In the wake of the new coronavirus (Corona 19) infection, the job posting schedule of a university in Seoul city is blank on the morning of the 8th amid the continuing cold wave of youth employment. Newsis
Last month, the number of employed fell by nearly 500,000, recording a decline in the number of employed for 12 consecutive months. Although the decline narrowed due to the easing of social distancing, the cold wave of COVID-19 employment continued throughout the year.
In particular, since March of last year was the first time that the number of employed fell due to the effect of Corona 19, it is difficult to attribute the deterioration of employment to only Corona from next month. Whether the job market recovers or if it falls into a long-term recession, we are really on the test floor. However, the outlook is not bright, as there are concerns that a structural employment crisis will become visible, centering on the self-employed and young people from next month.
‘All year’ employment decline…longest period since IMF
According to the’February Employment Trend’ released by the National Statistical Office on the 17th, the number of employed last month was 2,6365,000, down 473,000 from the same month last year. The number of employed has declined for 12 months since March last year (-195,000 people), when Corona 19 began to affect the domestic economy in earnest. This is also the longest record since January 1998 to April 1999 during the financial crisis.
However, the decline in the total number of employed workers, which reached 982,000 in January, has slightly decreased. Chung Dong-myeong, director of the Social Statistics Bureau of Statistics Korea, explained, “On February 15, there was a downward adjustment in social distancing, and there was an impact on the start of the (elderly) job program. In fact, last month, the number of employees 60 or older increased 212,000 in one year, making it the only positive (+) of all age groups.
The government also evaluated that the job market is improving on the basis of the fact that’the reduction in the number of employed has decreased compared to January’.
Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and Minister of Strategy and Finance wrote on Facebook that “the difficulties in the employment market due to the third spread of Corona 19 have been remarkably mitigated” after the employment trend was announced. It was also expected that, “in consideration of the start of vaccination, easing the quarantine distance, continued export improvement, and the base impact of last March’s employment shock, the employment index improvement trend will continue in March.”
However, it will not be known until next month whether the job market has really entered a recovery phase. March of last year was the first month when the number of employed people declined due to the corona crisis, and due to the nature of employment statistics comparing key indicators compared to the same month of the previous year, the employment shock cannot be attributed only to the corona crisis from March this year.
From next month, it is possible to determine the real job market condition by subtracting the corona variable.If next month’s employment index is similar or worse than last year, it can be explained that there are other problems besides Corona 19.
Prospects for self-employed and youth employment are unclear… the government is optimistic about “noticeable improvement”
The problem is that the employment situation of self-employed and young people is showing no signs of improvement.
Last month, the number of self-employed employees with employees decreased by 156,000 in one year, which was not much different from January (-158,000). As social distancing has eased, this is in contrast to temporary and daily jobs, which have sharply reduced the extent of the decline.
A government official said, “Unlike temporary and daily workers that have room for improvement depending on the Corona 19 situation, self-employed people decide to close their business at a time difference, so it will be more problematic in the future.” Explained.
The youth crisis is also likely to prolong. Last month, the number of employees in their twenties decreased by 106,000, and the employment rate fell by 1.7 percentage points. In particular, the unemployment rate was 10.0%, recording double digits in eight months since June of last year.
Experts are also warning that the index improvement trend based on the base effect should not be given a great deal of meaning. Professor Seong Tae-yoon of Yonsei University said, “Because of the corona 19 effect last year, some indicators may improve from March.” .
Sejong= Youngha Son reporter [email protected]
Subscribe to the Hankook Ilbo News Naver Channel
Balance to see the world, the Hankook Ilbo Copyright © Hankookilbo