Held a public hearing for the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan
Abolition of 30 coal … 4 times increase in renewable energy
[일렉트릭파워 배상훈 기자]On December 15th, the government established the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (draft). According to this plan (proposal), 30 coal power plants (15.3 GW) will be abolished by 2034, and 24 of them (12.7 GW) will be replaced by LNG power plants.
Nuclear power generation peaked at 26 units (26.1 GW) in 2022 and then declined to 17 units (19.4 GW) in 2034.
In the case of renewable energy generation, it will expand from 20.1GW at present to 77.8GW in 2034. In particular, solar power (45.6GW) and wind power (24.9GW) account for 91% of the total renewable energy generation in 2034.
The basic power supply and demand plan is a 15-year plan established by the government every two years to stabilize power supply and demand in accordance with the Electricity Business Act. The 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand contained energy supply and demand plans from 2020 to 2034.
In order to establish the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, the government prepared a place to gather ▲public opinion ▲stakeholders ▲expert opinions.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy held the ‘9th Public Hearing on the Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan’ at the KEPCO Art Center on December 24th. This public hearing was held online due to social distancing caused by Corona 19. The number of participants on the site was limited to the subject presenters, panelists, and event officials.
The 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (draft) is expected to be finalized at the end of this month after going through a power policy deliberation after a public hearing.
“The need for energy conversion is increasing”
Yoon Yo-han, head of the power industry division of the Ministry of Industry, announced the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (draft).
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “The need for energy policy transition to a safe and clean power mix is increasing.” “We plan to gradually reduce nuclear power plants and drastically reduce coal.” He said, “Renewable energy will continue to expand until 2034 to accommodate 30~35% of the generation share in 2040.”
In order to be consistent with the GHG reduction revision roadmap established in July 2018, additional GHG reduction measures in the conversion sector will be prepared.
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “As of 2030, an additional 34.1 million tons of greenhouse gas reductions are needed in the conversion sector,” he said. “It will be materialized in connection with the 2030 National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target (NDC), which is scheduled to be submitted to the United Nations later this year.”
He added, “It is necessary to accelerate investment in new and renewable energy for the transition to a low-carbon economy and society.”
Meanwhile, the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan (draft) applied the power panel model, which is the same analysis methodology as the 8th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan. The economic growth rate reflected the projections of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance for 2020-2024 and the KDI outlook for 2025-2034.
Manager Yohan Yoon predicted that “by 2028, we will maintain a stable electricity supply and demand with a facility reserve rate of 18% or more.” “With the completion of the already planned base power supply, the facility reserve rate will record 33%, the highest level in 2024.”
In addition, he explained, “From 2029, we are aiming to achieve a facility reserve rate of 22% through the construction of new facilities.”
In particular, if the policy goes as planned, the power mix in 2030 will be based on effective capacity ▲ LNG 55.5GW (45.3%) ▲ Coal 31.9GW (26.1%) ▲ Nuclear power plant 20.4GW (16.7%) ▲ Renewable 8.4GW (6.9%) ▲ Others The forecast was 6.2GW (5%).
Power mix in 2034 is based on effective capacity ▲ LNG 59.1GW (47.3%) ▲ Coal 28.3GW (22.7%) ▲ Nuclear power plant 19.4GW (15.5%) ▲ Renewable 10.8GW (8.6%) ▲ Other 7.4GW (5.9%) As expected.
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “The ratio of nuclear power plants and coal on the basis of effective capacity will decrease, and the share of LNG and renewable energy will increase.”
Meanwhile, the amount of power generated by power source is expected to be 25% for nuclear power, 29.9% for coal, 23.3% for LNG, 20.8% for new and renewable energy, and 1% for others as of 2030. Power generation is on an annual basis. This figure includes both the light load and the maximum load period.
Manager Yohan Yoon predicted that fine dust would reduce 12,000 tons from 21,000 tons in 2019, producing 9,000 tons in 2030.
Enhancement of renewable energy system capacity
Decentralized power is expected to supply about 21% of the total power generation in 2034, following 17.3% in 2025 and 19% in 2030.
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “To activate decentralized power, we are reviewing the provision of benefits support measures such as avoiding the construction of distributed energy transmission lines and easing volatility.” “We will introduce a system to diversify new demand from the metropolitan area to regions where renewable energy is concentrated. I said.
He added, “We will induce an appropriate level of power grid investment through issuance of RECs for self-consumption,” he said. “We plan to propose a specific plan through a roadmap for activating distributed energy.”
In addition, a plan for renewable energy transmission and substation facilities will be established in order to improve system capacity by expanding renewable energy.
Manager Yohan Yoon suggested the reinforcement of related infrastructure, such as the establishment of distribution lines and substations, as a short-term plan to reduce the amount of waiting for access. As a mid- to long-term plan, it suggested the promotion of customized measures for each renewable energy cluster, such as preemptive system reinforcement.
It also said that it plans to focus on the timely completion of transmission and substation facilities, enhancement of social and environmental acceptance, and establishment of a Northeast Asian supergrid.
Meanwhile, the settlement adjustment system will be improved to promote competition in the electricity market. Manager Yohan Yoon stressed, “We will abolish KEPCO’s subsidy system for public power generation companies and mutual support system for public power generation companies to ensure fair competition conditions.”
In order to diversify the electricity market, we will also introduce a new system that considers changes in the characteristics and roles of each power source.
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “First of all, we evaluate the total cost, including the cost of GHG emission rights and fuel,” and “determine the priority of supply between coal and LNG to promote competition to reduce environmental costs, but the price bidding system will be introduced step by step from the leading market in the future Will”.
In addition, he said, “We will reorganize the organizational penalties regulations to prevent behaviors that hinder the function of market competition.”
The government introduces a new and renewable power generation bidding system to respond to the volatility of renewable energy. For new and renewable energy in excess of 20MW, the system will be improved so that volatility can be absorbed by itself through bidding for power generation. In order to expand flexible resource compensation, a real-time and auxiliary service market is also introduced.
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “We will establish a follow-up plan for the implementation of the 9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand,” and said, “We will finalize the 5th basic plan for new and renewable energy and the 14th long-term natural gas supply and demand plan.”
He said, “We will prepare a system plan for stable power supply.” “We plan to establish a’long-term transmission and substation facility plan’ for timely and optimal reception of renewable energy and stable operation of the power system.”
He also pledged to improve the forecast model to improve the accuracy of the demand forecast and supplement the follow-up system for implementing the GHG reduction plan.
Manager Yohan Yoon said, “We will review and present the mid- to long-term power mix in order to achieve carbon neutrality in the next plan based on the establishment of relevant legislation and securing consistency with the higher level plans.”
Shin Hanul Unit 3 and 4, inevitably not reflected
After the presentation of the subject matter of the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (draft), a panel discussion was held on the contents of the inquiry.
First, considering the ▲ nuclear power industry ▲ regional economy ▲ jobs ▲ carbon neutrality, there was an opinion that the construction of Shinhanul 3 and 4 needs to be reflected in the 9th basic power supply and demand plan, and that construction should be resumed.
Regarding this, Dr. Jae-gyu Lim said, “For the purpose of establishing the basic power supply and demand plan, power generation facilities with uncertainty in stable power supply were inevitably excluded from the supply volume.” After in-depth discussion, it was inevitably not reflected in the supply quantity.”
Meanwhile, there was an opinion that nuclear power plants are needed for carbon neutrality. Dr. Lim Jae-gyu said, “Nuclear power plants are eco-friendly in terms of GHG emissions,” he said. “There are problems with spent nuclear fuel, economic deterioration due to external costs, and public acceptance,” he said. “It is difficult to see it as a fundamental alternative for carbon neutrality.”
Some say that the operation period of coal-fired power plants should be shortened in order to be carbon neutral in 2050, and that the construction of seven new coal-fired power plants should also be stopped.
Seven new coal-fired power plants currently being promoted ▲ Shinseocheon Thermal Power Plant (Korea Midland Power) ▲ Goseong High Thermal Power Plant Units 1 and 2 (Goseong Green Power) ▲ Gangneung Anin Thermal Power Plant Units 1 and 2 (Gangneung Eco Power) ▲ Samcheok Thermal Power Plant Units 1 and 2 (Samcheok Blue Power)
Dr. Lim Jae-gyu said, “The government is pushing ahead with drastic measures to reduce coal power generation, such as banning licenses for new coal-fired power plants and abolishing old coal-fired power plants.” “We plan to push ahead with drastic reduction measures with speed.”
However, “it is practically difficult to stop the construction of a new coal-fired power plant that has been promoted through a legal procedure without the employer’s voluntary will.” Suggested.
In addition, regarding the construction of coal-fired power plants with LNG power generation by public power generation companies, there have been raised concerns about the equity with private companies’ new LNG power generation.
Dr. Jae-gyu Lim said, “After the 9th basic power supply and demand plan is confirmed, we plan to determine the final new volume by reflecting the capacity of licensed facilities such as self-generation before starting the business selection procedure.”
“The alternative construction of LNG is to promote alternative construction based on the letter of intent submitted by the employer for the generator that has been in operation for 30 years,” he said. “It is possible to replace old private LNG facilities.”
In the case of the new LNG proposed in the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, it is expected that the operator will be selected through competition between the power generation company and the private sector.
Meanwhile, according to a report published by Carbon Tracker, it pointed out that if Korea does not exit gas power plants by 2050, it will face a $60 billion worth of stranded assets.
At this point, he suggested that it is not competitive to build additional gas power plants, and suggested that existing gas power plants will lose price competitiveness compared to renewable energy as early as 2023.
Regarding this, Dr. Jae-gyu Lim emphasized that “the coal-fired power plant that is abolished in the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand is a generator with a design life of 30 years, where all depreciation ends,” and is not a stranded asset.
In addition, he said, “The carbon tracker applied the assumption that all coal generators will be stopped by 2040,” and “it does not match the domestic facility plan.”
In addition, he assessed that “there is a problem of overestimating the amount of stranded assets due to misunderstanding of the domestic electricity market system, such as assuming that the coal-fired power plant is settled at the market price even though the profit is regulated by the settlement adjustment factor.”
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