Reduced the proportion of nuclear power plants to 10% in 2034, expanded to 40% for new and renewable energy
Achieved national GHG reduction target, greatly reduced fine dust
Preemptive reinforcement and expansion of infrastructure in preparation for expansion of renewable energy
[지앤이타임즈 송승온 기자] By 2034, the share of nuclear power plants will decrease from 18.2% to 10.1%, and coal power plants will decrease from 28.1% to 15%. On the other hand, renewable energy is expected to increase significantly from 15.8% to 40.3%.
The ‘9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan’ has been finalized, including 15 years of power supply and demand forecasts and demand management, power facility plans, power market system improvement, and greenhouse gas reduction plans for 15 years until 2034.
Since the Ministry of Industry began to establish the plan in March last year, it has prepared a draft plan through 60 meetings centering on 90 experts in each field. The 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan was finalized and announced on the 28th after a strategic environmental impact assessment and consultation with related ministries, a report by the National Assembly’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy’s Small and Medium Venture Business Committee, a public hearing and a power policy deliberation.
◆ Renewable volatility is expanded through LNG and pumped-up power generation
First of all, the maximum power demand in 2034 is forecast to be 102.5GW. In order to maintain the consistency of the analysis, the electricity demand forecast used the power panel model, which is the same model as the last 7th and 8th plans.
As a result, the standard demand for maximum power demand in 2034 is projected to be 117.5GW, and the target demand was derived to be 102.5GW, taking into account the demand management goal and the spread of electric vehicles.
As of 2034, the target facility capacity was calculated as 125.1GW, reflecting the standard facility reserve rate of 22% to the target demand for 2034, 102.5GW. .
Accordingly, 2.8GW of new facilities will be expanded to LNG and pumped-up power generation, which are backup facilities to cope with the volatility of renewables.
The amount of new LNG will be finalized after taking into account the capacity of self-powered and collective energy facilities that will be confirmed after the 9th plan is established.
If the current power generation facilities are completed as planned, the facility reserve ratio is expected to be maintained at 18% or higher until 2028, and from 2029, the base equipment reserve ratio is expected to reach 22% through the completion of new facilities.
In particular, looking at the composition of facilities by power source (based on rated capacity), nuclear power plants (18.2%) and coal (28.1%) are expected to decrease to 10.1% and 15.0%, respectively, by 2034.
Renewable energy is expected to increase from 15.8% to 40.3%, and LNG power generation is expected to decrease slightly from the present to 30.6%.
◆ Promote activation of’distributed power supply’ such as compensation for distributed benefits
The GHG reduction plan was concretely implemented in connection with the 2030 NDC, which is scheduled to be submitted to the UN at the end of this year, and accordingly, we plan to achieve the target of 191 million tons of GHG emissions in the conversion sector as of 30.
This is a 23.6% decrease from 252 million tons in 2017, and accordingly, the proportion of annual coal power generation is expected to decrease significantly from 40.4% in 2019 to 29.9% in 2030.
In addition, the emission of fine dust in the power generation sector is expected to decrease by about 57% from 21,000 tons in 2019 to 9000 tons in 2030.
The proportion of decentralized power generation is expected to increase significantly from about 12% in 2020 to about 21% in 2034.
In particular, in order to revitalize the supply of decentralized power, we reviewed the introduction of a system for distributing new demand in the metropolitan area to areas where new demand for renewable energy is concentrated, as well as preparing a plan for benefit from avoiding construction of transmission lines, and introducing effective incentives for self-consumption. It plans to induce investment in electricity grid.
The Ministry of Industry said that specific details are planned to be presented through the’roadmap for activating distributed energy’ in the future.
◆ Reflecting the Green New Deal plan, accelerating the supply of solar and wind power
It is planning to implement customized measures for each region with concentrated renewable energy, such as preemptive reinforcement of transmission lines to enhance system capacity in regions where renewable energy is concentrated.
In addition, in order to prevent additional connection waiting due to the expansion of small-scale renewable energy, the’Renewable Energy Transmission and Substation Facility Plan’ will be established by investigating and predicting renewable energy less than 40MW at a regional level.
In order to provide stable power supply, the company plans to complete the timely completion of transmission lines, substations, and power plant connection lines, as well as complementary measures for delayed projects.
In addition, in order to enhance environmental and social acceptance, we plan to promote the demonstration and introduction of nature-friendly ground-based transmission lines, and advance consultations on the location of transmission and substation facilities in large-scale projects.
In addition, in order to establish a Northeast Asian supergrid, the company plans to initiate commercialization between Korea and China by 2022 and complete a feasibility study for Korea-Japan and Korea-Russia.
It is expected that 22.2% of the renewable energy generation share will be achieved by 2034 through the supply of 62.3GW of new renewable energy facilities (for business + private use) from 2020 to 2034.
First of all, it is planning to promote large-scale projects such as offshore wind power in a timely manner, and develop and demonstrate core facilities in parallel with the start of the project.
In addition, the company is planning to secure a sustainable market base, such as increasing the ratio of mandatory renewable energy supply (RPS), expanding REC competitive bidding, and supporting the RE100.
◆ Improvement of power market system to expand eco-friendly energy
The Ministry of Industry announced that it will improve the power market system to create a fair competitive environment among power generation companies and to stably expand eco-friendly energy.
The introduction of environmental dispatch that reflects the cost of emission permits in the cost, and the introduction of a price bidding system in stages to promote competition to reduce costs among power generation companies, and to establish a market system for responding to new and renewable volatility, such as the introduction of a new and renewable power generation bidding system and an auxiliary service market. It is an idea.
The Ministry of Industry and Industry collected various opinions from all walks of life through a report to the National Assembly on the 23rd and a public hearing on the 24th according to the procedure of the Electricity Business Act regarding the establishment of the 9th plan.
In particular, this public hearing was inevitably held offline (KEPCO Art Center) and online in parallel in accordance with the strengthening guidelines for social distancing due to the spread of Corona 19 in the script.
The Ministry of Industry announced that it plans to implement follow-up measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the 9th plan. First, after the 9th plan is confirmed, related energy plans and policies such as the ‘5th New and Renewable Energy Basic Plan’,’The 14th Long-Term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan’,’Distributed Energy Activation Roadmap’, and’Long-Term Transmission/Substation Facility Plan’ Will be established and confirmed.
In addition, the power demand forecast and mid- to long-term power mix to advance toward the 2050 carbon neutral target will be reviewed and presented sequentially in the next plan based on the establishment of relevant legislation and securing consistency with the higher plan.
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