The Korean automobile industry, who suffered fatal injuries from a novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) last year, is dreaming of a leap forward in the new year of the new year, the’Year of the White Bull’. It is an aspiration to become a leading country in the eco-friendly car industry with new products such as electric vehicles and hydrogen electric vehicles.
As the corona 19 vaccination begins in earnest this year, it is predicted that demand in the global automobile market will gradually recover. Automakers are focusing their efforts on overcoming the crisis with eco-friendly cars.
◇ Market demand is expected to recover due to the stabilization of the Corona 19 situation
According to the industry on the 1st, global automobile demand is expected to recover as the development of COVID-19 treatment and vaccines gains momentum. According to the Korea Automobile Industry Association (KAMA), the domestic market (including imported cars) in 2021 is expected to reach 1.82 million units, down 4.4% from last year. The forecast for the domestic market in 2020 is 1.91 million units. Even if the domestic economy enters a recovery trend, there is no expectation that consumption capacity will recover in the short term.
New car launches are also weakening. In 2020, domestic automakers launched nine new models, many of which were volume models. 2021 will be reduced to 7 types. The fact that most of them are made up of luxury cars and electric cars is one of the reasons for the shrinking of the domestic market.
The Korea Automobile Industry Association said, “The domestic economic growth rate has increased by 2.8%, and there are positive factors such as stabilization of oil prices and the expansion of eco-friendly and luxury cars. “There will be an adverse base effect.”
Instead, the export division is expected to recover significantly. This is because global demand is expected to recover and base effects from a sharp decline in exports last year. The Korea Automobile Industry Association estimated the export volume of 2.34 million units in 2021. This is a 22.9% increase from the estimated 1.91 million units last year. Other agencies’ projections are similar in terms of increasing exports. The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade predicted the export forecast for 2021 to 2.28 million units, an increase of 16.6% from last year (1.96 million units, estimated).
According to LMC Automotive, an automobile market research organization, the global automobile market will recover to 8,4022,000 units in 2021. This is a 10.9% increase from last year’s estimate of 75772,000 units. LMC estimates that the European, Russian and Indian markets will show double-digit (14-18%) growth. In the EU, subsidies for purchasing electric vehicles or high fuel efficiency vehicles will be expanded.
The US is also expected to grow around 8%. The US is also expected to increase exports due to the expansion of eco-friendly policies. In addition, expectations are rising that the trade environment will improve with President Biden’s election. In addition, the Latin American and African markets are also expected to grow by more than 26%.
Academia believes that the situation may change depending on the situation of domestic automakers. “In the case of Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, etc., the release model is so positive that the maximum contract volume per day,” said Lee Ho-geun, a professor at Daedeok University. “However, other brands will have a different situation.” Said.
“In the case of GM Korea and Renault Samsung, it is necessary to obtain a new car assignment from the global headquarters. In the end, if there is a limit to increasing market share, it will play a role as a production base rather than sales and marketing. “We have to work harder on improving production efficiency,” he added.
◇The first year of the popularization of electric vehicles in 2021…
The keyword for the automobile market in 2021 is expected to be electric vehicles. Both industry and academia are expected to be the first year of popularization of eco-friendly cars.
It is also in line with the government’s’Green New Deal’ policy, which is leading the spread of eco-friendly future cars. Last year, the penetration rate of eco-friendly cars reached the 3% level for the first time in history and grew rapidly. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the proportion of eco-friendly car registrations was only 0.8% in 2015, but increased to 2.54% in four years. Last year, it exceeded 3%, and it seems to be getting more momentum.
It is also a positive sign that the government’s eco-friendly car policy will continue for the time being. President Moon Jae-in visited Hyundai Motor Company’s Ulsan plant on October 30 last year and said, “By 2025, we will invest more than 20 trillion won in green mobility such as electric and hydrogen vehicles.” It is planning to open the era of 1.1 million electric cars and 200,000 hydrogen cars.
The scale of subsidies for eco-friendly vehicles will also be expanded. The number of electric cars will increase from 106,000 to 158,000 units, and hydrogen cars will increase from 15,000 to 37,000. In line with the government’s policy, domestic automakers are also planning to actively introduce eco-friendly cars.
For this reason, domestic automakers are also planning to engage in an all-out war. On the 10th, Hyundai Motor Company released a ‘2025 strategy’ that revised its existing future business strategy. Prior to this, in August, the electric vehicle exclusive brand’Ioniq’ was also launched.
The electric car division is expanding its electric car lineup in earnest, starting with the launch of the Ioniq 5 in 2021. It also set a goal to achieve a 10% global market share by 2040, such as promoting electrification of the entire lineup in major global markets. Genesis is also expected to launch the first pure electric vehicle project name JW in Korea.
The hydrogen fuel cell division, an eco-friendly fuel, will also be strengthened. With the hydrogen fuel cell system brand’HTWO’ (H2) as a foothold, it is planning to devote all efforts to expanding the hydrogen ecosystem. The goal is to sell 700,000 hydrogen fuel cells to the market by 2030.
The expansion of the hydrogen ecosystem is important to Hyundai. The company occupies more than 70% of the related market share with the hydrogen fuel cell car Nexo. It is known that a plan to re-enter Japan, which had withdrawn from the passenger market in 2022, was also established.
Based on the previously announced mid-to-long-term future strategy’Plan S’, Kia Motors is expanding its EV sales share. The goal is to increase the proportion to more than 20% by 2025. Although the release time has not been decided yet, it is planning to sequentially release 7 exclusive electric vehicle models, including the project name CV and high-performance models based on the electric vehicle platform’E-GMP’ that was unveiled last year.
Ssangyong Motor is also planning to introduce the brand’s first pure electric vehicle in 2021. Although development has already been completed, the launch timing is being adjusted for the first half of 2021, taking into account subsidies for electric vehicles. This model was developed based on the semi-medium SUV Korando and is known under the project name E100.
Renault Samsung Motors is planning to develop technologies to reduce CO2 and expand mass production of Tweezy, a small pure electric vehicle. Although it is not a pure electric vehicle, the introduction of the XM3 hybrid model is also under consideration. GM Korea will introduce a model with partial changes to the Volt EV to secure demand for eco-friendly vehicles in 2021. The new electric vehicle Volt EUV, which was unveiled globally, is expected to be introduced in Korea.
Professor Ho-geun Lee said, “Next year will be the first year of competition in the eco-friendly car market. If we fail to take the lead, we will ruin farming for the next 10 to 15 years.” He added, “In the case of Hyundai Motor Company, there are concerns about safety due to the Kona EV incident. It is important to secure quality and reliability through E-GMP-based Ionic 5 that will be released next year.”
[CEO스코어데일리 / 이지완 기자 / [email protected]]