The Bank of Korea cited the COVID-19 vaccine and changes in US-China economic policies as major variables that will drive the global economy this year.
The Bank of Korea has selected and announced ‘7 issues that will determine the global economic direction this year’, including the commercialization of the Corona 19 vaccine,’Bidenomics’, which means the economic policy of US President-elect Joe Biden, and the transformation of China’s growth strategy. .
First of all, regarding the vaccine, he diagnosed that “it is expected to be close to population immunity in the second half of next year, mainly in developed countries, but the feeling of rejection of vaccination and the possibility of delaying the release of some vaccines can prevent the early end of Corona 19.”
In addition, regarding’Bidnomics’, he predicted that “in the United States, with the launch of the Biden government, large-scale fiscal expenditures and infrastructure investment can have a positive impact on the global economy.”
With China’s’bicycle’ growth strategy focused on the domestic market, he predicted that “China’s participation in the global supply chain may be reduced in the future, but its potential as an international consumption market will grow.”
In addition to these three variables, the BOK suggested’regularization of global hegemony competition’,’possibility of intensifying political conflict in Europe’,’global economic recovery imbalance’, and’strengthening international response to climate change’ as key variables to gauge global economic trends this year. .
“The global economy next year will have some negative factors such as a deepening economic recovery imbalance, but the growth will increase in the second half of the year due to the commercialization of the Corona 19 vaccine and the expansion of fiscal spending by the new US government.” Conflicts and other issues affect us, and there is always a possibility that the global economy will develop in an unexpected direction.”