It was an eventful week. On the 22nd, the bitcoin price, which had moved sideways at the 58,000 dollar level, fell 25% in two days to the 45,000 dollar level. Since then, it has risen and declined repeatedly, hitting $43,000 in the early morning of the 1st, and rebounding, and as of 6 pm on the 1st, it is crossing the 46,000-dollar range.
On the 25th and 26th, before the bitcoin price fell to $43,000, a total of 25,000 bitcoins (about 1.4 trillion won) were traded on the Coinbase Exchange twice around $48,000 on the 25th and 26th. OTC) was moved to the custudy wallet. The massive bitcoin withdrawal from Coinbase, which is estimated to be an OTC transaction, is a strong buy signal that predicts a sharp rise. In the near future, news that a publicly traded company such as Tesla or MicroStrategy has bought bitcoin may hit the news.
Despite such a strong institutional buy signal, why did the bitcoin price plummet without an immediate rise? The cause was in the macro market. Analysts are seeing that investments in the cryptocurrency market, including stocks, have been pulled out as the US 10-year Treasury rate has increased.
It is said that macroscopic variables are not predicting, but responding. Investors who are heavily influenced by macro variables in the coin market are usually US institutional investors, and they are active in Coinbase. So, the coinbase premium acts as an indicator of institutional investors’ reaction to macro variables.
Coinbase premiums have largely remained negative over the past week as prices declined or moved sideways. This means that institutional investors in the United States took the lead in selling Bitcoin. However, when the price rose after the bottom at $43,000, it recorded a premium of more than $100, showing a sharp rise.
Not only the coinbase’whales’ but also miners made a significant contribution to this decline. There was a large amount of withdrawal from miners around $48,000 where the price of bitcoin fell by about $10,000 from the peak. It is believed that this is not the address of the company operating the mining pool, but the address of the whale investor who participated in the mining pool in the past. In 4 hours, 9263 bitcoins (approximately 498 billion won) were pulled out of the wallet, some of which flowed into the cryptocurrency exchange.
For the time being, the direction of Bitcoin is likely to be greatly influenced by macro variables. Until macro variables such as US Treasury yields stabilize, they are expected to continue to fluctuate within the box range. There are two recently identified buying points for institutional investors. Based on the bulk bitcoin withdrawal from Coinbase, it is 48,000 dollars. The average purchase price of MicroStrategy, which issued a $1 billion convertible bond and added a total of 19,000 bitcoins, is about $52,000. They can only make a profit if bitcoin rises above this price.
Conversely, it also means that it is difficult to predict macro-variable adverse events such that such institutions also buy high points. It is not easy to predict how macro indicators will work in the cryptocurrency market in the future. It seems necessary to respond in the short term through clear supply and demand indicators such as coinbase premium.
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