Photo = REUTERS
The Wall Street Journal, a leading US economic magazine, focused on Korean investment expert Thomas Lee on the 23rd (local time).
Thomas Lee, co-founder of US Fundstrat Global Advisor. Wall Street Journal capture
Lee, co-founder of the well-known Wall Street research firm Fundstrat Global Advisor (FGA), is considered a leading market optimist (permabull). On March 24 last year, when the New York stock market was cut in half, he predicted to the market that “the stock market will hit an all-time high before the end of this summer,” and he was right. However, some criticize, “It is not a prediction to say that stock prices will always rise.”
Nuriel Rubini, Professor at New York University Business School
There is a person who is similar to Mr. Lee just in the opposite direction. This is Nuriel Rubini, Professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. It’s always called’Dr. Doom’ or permabear because he’s always pessimistic about the market.
A tweet from Professor Rubini, who predicted that “the price of bitcoin will drop sharply on January 15th.” Twitter capture
Prof. Rubini’s prediction has also become a hot topic in recent years as it has been almost correct. Prof. Rubini predicted earlier this month that “the bitcoin bubble will go out on the 15th,” but the date was not accurate, but the price of bitcoin plunged while riding a roller coaster of all time. The price of bitcoin, which soared to $42,000 each in the new year, once broke below $30,000.
However, not many locals praise Professor Rubini for his excellent insight. This is because Professor Rubini expected a steadily plunge from the early days of bitcoin’s release and from when the price of bitcoin was less than $1,000. It is for the same reason that the reaction of “a broken clock is right twice a day” came out.
In the past, even in Korea, a self-proclaimed real estate policy expert shouted,’The market will plummet,’ for more than 10 years and has been the target of mockery of investors.
Prof. Rubini, from Iranian-Turkish, founded an independent consulting company called’Rubini Macro Associates’, where he serves as chairman. It is a business model that provides lectures and provides market forecast and analysis reports for a fee. He also served as an advisor to the White House Economic Advisory Committee during the Bill Clinton administration.
The US New York stock market has historically fluctuated. Factset capture
Prof. Rubini is known to be a market pessimist, and unlike many of the Wall Street experts, he hasn’t raised a lot of assets. I’ve been interviewed once saying that I’m not married and I don’t even own a car.
In an interview in 2009, he said, “I have been working steadily, such as a professor, and I have saved 30% of my income, and I have no debt because I am living a modest life.” “In the past, I used to invest 75% of my entire fortune in stocks, but now I only put 5% in it. It’s true that interest is barely accrued when I put it in a bank account. I said.
There is a decisive moment in which Professor Rubini gained fame. They predicted the’biggest crisis to come’ relatively accurately in September 2006, before the 2008 global financial crisis. He prophesied that “US house prices would sink the global economy after experiencing a terrible crash,” and most did not believe it, but his words came true two years later.
However, it is also true that the more pessimistic prospects were not correct. Professor Rubini recently came up with a new future prediction.
In a recent article, Professor Rubini predicted that “the US economy will see an uneasy recovery this year.” Project Syndicate Capture
“Over the four years of the new government, white racist violent protests will surge, and cyber attacks from Russia and China will also increase,” he said. At the same time, they urged the strengthening of regulations on platform companies such as Facebook and Twitter. This year, the U.S. economy is expected to see an uneasy recovery.
But, as they did in the past, they have yet to come up with pessimistic predictions about the US economy. It seems likely that his political convictions, a supporter of the Democratic Party of the United States, have influenced this.
History and statistics tell us that, whatever the character’s background, market prediction is a very difficult and virtually impossible area.
New York = Correspondent Jae-gil Cho [email protected]