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| ▲ On December 7, 2013, Joe Biden (Vice President at the time) visits the Olleh Post (GP) near Panmunjeom with his granddaughter Piner Gunyang and looks at the northern area with binoculars. | |
| Ⓒ Yonhap News |
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(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Ryu Ji-bok = U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s diplomatic and security high-level appointments are approaching the final stage, and attention is focused on the impact on North Korea and other policies on the Korean Peninsula.
Biden’s diplomatic and security lines, who will be inaugurated on the 20th, are lined with personnel who are familiar with past North Korea policies or who have dealt with policies on the Korean Peninsula.
This is different from that of President Donald Trump’s appointment as the first secretary of state as an outsider Korean entrepreneur who has little experience with the Korean Peninsula.
Biden is known to have nominated Tony Blincoln as minister in the case of the State Department, and Wendy Sherman as deputy minister.
Appointee Blincoln served as Deputy Secretary of State at the end of the Barack Obama administration, and is known to be deeply involved in the “strategic patience” policy toward North Korea.
In a broadcast in September last year, he suggested the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran as a solution to denuclearization of North Korea. The Iran nuclear agreement, which was concluded in July 2015, aims to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons and ease economic sanctions in return for international inspections.
In the case of Sherman, he worked as a policy coordinator for North Korea during the Bill Clinton administration, and he is an expert on the Korean peninsula who visited Pyongyang with the then-secretary of state to meet Kim Jong-il. During Obama’s second term, he mainly focused on Iran and served as a midwife to the Iranian nuclear agreement.
While the Pentagon’s nominee for Lloyd Austin is being evaluated for lack of Asian experience, it is evaluated that it should pay attention to Kathleen Hicks, who was nominated for Deputy Minister. During the Obama administration, she is considered to be a person involved in the implementation of the “pivot to Asia” with China in mind.
Colin Carl, who was nominated for the vice minister in charge of policy,’number 3’of the Ministry of National Defense, has also emphasized multilateral coordination and peaceful solutions to North Korea issues along with emphasis on the alliance.
In the case of the White House, Jake Sullivan, who is well versed in the field of diplomacy and security, was appointed as the National Security Advisor who oversees the National Security Council (NSC). He also experienced North Korea problems while serving as Vice President of Biden’s National Security Advisor in 2013-2014.
It is also worth noting that Kurt Campbell was appointed as the new NSC Indo-Pacific coordinator. He served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs in the Department of State dealing with issues on the Korean Peninsula, and is evaluated as a key architect of Asian-oriented policies.
In the media, amid the observation that he will take on the role of the’Asian Tsar’, interpretations are expressed that Biden’s will to attach importance to Asian policy, including the North Korean issue.
The presence of a large number of Korean peninsula experts in the Biden administration was, above all, influenced by the appointment of a large number of officials who played a key role in the Obama administration.
President Obama shifted the focus of US diplomatic and security policy from the Middle East to a’Asian-oriented policy’ to check China, and at this time, key figures naturally had to deal with Asian issues such as China and North Korea.
As Biden-elect entrusted them with the responsibilities of the new administration, as a result, experts on the Korean peninsula took over.
Of course, the diplomatic and security line’s greatest concern is expected to be a check strategy against China, but there are observations that it will bring significant changes to the policy tone on the Korean Peninsula.
First of all, they are strong advocates who both emphasize the’value alliance’ with one voice for the ROK-US alliance. The approach itself is different from President Trump, who viewed the ROK-US alliance from a transactional point of view and then expressed a negative view on the presence of US troops in Korea or training allied forces and pressured to increase defense costs.
However, as they are widely evaluated as hard-liners when it comes to China, they can be a factor that adds to Korea’s diplomatic concerns between the United States and China.
It is interpreted that the shingles of experts on the Korean peninsula have both advantages and disadvantages in North Korea policy. Knowing North Korea well can be a strong point in the denuclearization issue, but on the contrary, it has the potential to act as an obstacle.
They are generally known to share a step-by-step approach, strong sanctions against North Korea to bring North Korea to the dialogue table, and Biden’s solution of cooperation with the international community.
Having been familiar with North Korea’s negotiation strategies and tactics, there are high observations that it will not be easily shaken by North Korea’s provocations and other pressured diplomacy in the early days of Biden’s launch.
‘Diplomacy based on principles’, as stated by Biden-elect, is also an expression of his will to pursue consistent policies such as inducing negotiations through sanctions and focusing on human rights rather than struggling with North Korea.
However, there are also concerns that flexibility may be undermined if the understanding and rich experience of the North Korean issue is focused on principle.
In a situation where North Korea demanded the withdrawal of its hostile policy, represented by easing sanctions in its recent Labor Party conference, if North Korea proceeds to provocation and the United States adheres to the principle, it could make it more difficult to come up with a solution to denuclearization amid worsening relations with the US .
Also, if there are a lot of diplomatic experts who value procedure and justification, it may be difficult to take a breakthrough such as President Trump’s use of the US-North Korea summit as a surprise card.
President-elect Biden also criticized President Trump’s “top-down” solution, which leaned on discussions between the top leaders, and presented a bottom-up methodology from working-level negotiations several times.
However, in terms of North Korea issues, it seems clear that Trump will prioritize diplomatic solutions instead of going to extreme conflict, such as during the period of’anger and flame’ in 2017, the beginning of President Trump’s term.
A prime example is the appointment of former Deputy Secretary of State William Burns as the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The appointment of a career diplomat who worked for the State Department for 33 years as the Director of the CIA was very unusual, and it was interpreted as a person who reflected the intention of Biden to put diplomacy over strength and force in international issues.
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