Biden or Biden… Principles of North Korea

As North Korea continues its armed demonstrations through recent missile launches, it is noteworthy how it will affect the US policy review process toward North Korea, which is in the final stage. It is analyzed that if North Korea continues its military action for the time being in accordance with the stance of strengthening national defense power determined at the 8th Party Congress in January, the initial policy toward North Korea in the Biden administration will have no choice but to take a rudder based on hardline and principle theory.

At the first press conference after taking office on the 25th (local time), US President Joe Biden pointed out that North Korea launched a ballistic missile on the 25th as “violation of the resolution of the UN Security Council” I will come forward,” he warned.

Just as North Korea put forward the principle of’strong and strong first line’ aimed at the United States at the 8th Party Congress, the United States also emphasized’corresponding response’ toward North Korea. Analysis says that the Biden administration had no choice but to draw up a principle as the North Korean armed protests became a reality in a situation where the North Korean policy review has not yet been completed. “It seems that the Biden administration has devised a plan to gradually pressure North Korea while putting human rights and democracy values ​​at the center of North Korea policy, but it will cause some setbacks,” said Lim-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Far East Research Institute.

President Biden also left room for a diplomatic solution at a press conference on the premise of’denuclearization’. He said, “I’m also ready for diplomacy,” he said. “But this should be premised on the final result of denuclearization.”

The US, however, is still in an atmosphere that continues to be cautious. While sternly warning North Korea’s provocations, it posed a response through the Security Council rather than an independent measure. The UN Security Council convened a sanctions committee against North Korea on the 26th (local time) at the request of the United States regarding North Korea’s launch of ballistic missiles, but in the past, the UN Security Council has never issued additional sanctions or resolutions for launching short-range missiles. Therefore, it is highly likely that this meeting will only produce a message expressing concern over the violation of North Korea’s resolution. Reuters reported on the 26th (local time), “When North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile a year ago, an official meeting of the Security Council attended by ambassadors, whereas this year, diplomats with lower positions from 15 members of the Security Council attended. The meeting was called,” he said. It is analyzed that the Biden administration took a more cautious approach rather than mobilizing hard measures as it was a response to North Korea’s first ballistic missile launch.

Experts analyzed that the Biden administration’s diplomatic and security team will not change its policy tone with the one-off armed demonstrations in North Korea, as it is made up of veterans with a lot of experience in dealing with North Korea. “Because North Korea and the United States have not yet initiated dialogue, and the details of future negotiations have not been determined, the principle of North Korea itself will not change before and after the North Korean missile launch,” said Woojung-yeop, head of the US Research Center at the Sejong Institute. Even if the program is finished soon, the content to be released will be limited to very basic content,” he said.

However, some analyzes suggest that if the level of tension in North Korea continues to rise, it may affect the realistic approach to North Korea. James Kim, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, “From the US point of view, there is nothing new about missile launches from North Korea, but if the level of provocations continues to rise in this way, the US will not be able to look at North Korea in a relaxed manner.” “The tactical approach, such as whether to put the weight on dialogue or sanctions, or how to use China and Russia to persuade North Korea, can change depending on the attitude of North Korea,” he explained.

It is analyzed that the possibility of direct contact between North Korea and the United States has further decreased as the neurological war continues. The United States has offered to talk to North Korea since last month, but North Korea consistently did not respond and drew a line saying, “We will continue to ignore any attempts made by the United States to contact the United States in the future,” through a discourse on the 18th by First Minister of Foreign Affairs Choi Sun-hee. It is analyzed that even if the United States continues its attempts to talk to North Korea in the future, it will fall into the nature of building a justification for pursuing the existing principle of North Korea. There are also observations that in a situation where the conflict between the United States and China is getting sharper, the possibility of using China to move North Korea has decreased, so that it will be forced to maintain a more principled position on North Korea.

The results of the Biden administration’s review of North Korea policy are expected to be outlined through a meeting of the “Korea-US-Japan Security Officer” between White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Blue House National Security Officer Seo Hoon, and Japan National Security Bureau Chief Shigeru Kitamura scheduled for next weekend. .

Reporter Park Hyun-joo [email protected]