Biden, how will Iran come out… North Korea is watching the resemblance of the Middle East

Iran is currently carrying out a’cliff edge tactic’ to press the US to return to the’Iran Nuclear Agreement’ (JCPOA, Comprehensive Joint Action Plan). It is observed that the Biden government’s response policy against Iran will have a significant impact on the tension between North Korea and the United States, which will be created ahead of the joint exercises between Korea and the United States next month.

Iran’s pressure on the United States is currently being carried out in two-tracks of’armed protest’ (action) and’blackmail’ (word). Foreign media such as AP reported that Iran test-fired a short-range 300km missile on the 14th (local time), citing Iran’s state-run IRNA communication. The AP analyzed that “Iran has increased its military action in recent months to pressure the US to return to the nuclear agreement.” Also, on the 15th (local time), one civilian was killed in a rocket attack aimed at a US military base in the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq. The exact details are still under investigation, but in the past, in the event of an attack on a US base in Iraq, the United States used Iran-backed Shiite militia behind it.

Iran has also issued a moratorium that it will refuse to inspect the IAEA unless the nuclear agreement returns. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Said Hativjade told a press briefing on the 15th (local time), “If the Iranian nuclear agreement participants do not fulfill their obligations under the agreement by the 21st, Iran will suspend the implementation of the Additional Protocols of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). I will do it.” Iran’s IAEA Ambassador Kazem Garibadi also tweeted on the same day that “a law containing the details of suspending the implementation of the Additional Protocol on the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will take effect on the 23rd, and it has also been notified to the IAEA.”

The Biden administration has expressed its intention to restore the Iranian nuclear agreement unilaterally abolished by former President Donald Trump. However, by applying even more stringent standards, the Obama administration is actually showing a willingness to’upgrade’ rather than the agreement at the time. President Biden stressed that “Iran must preemptively defend the nuclear agreement” (interviewed with CBS on the 7th), and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, “As a follow-up negotiation agenda may include ballistic missiles, and States and others can also participate in the agreement” (interview with CNN on January 3rd), he said.

However, under the principle of “ballistic missiles are non-negotiable”, Iran unilaterally draws a’one week deadline’ and raises the pressure level. The United States is refraining from immediate response, but if Iran’s timetable suggested, military tensions between the two countries may increase after the 21st. “It is not easy for the United States to respond to Iran’s demands within the one week deadline suggested by Iran,” said Prof. Nam-shik In. “We will continue the search battle for the time being as the two countries repeat raising or lowering the level of pressure on each other.” did.

The confrontation between the US and Iran, which is expected to continue until the end of this month, could be a precedent for North Korea. The ROK-US is planning a joint exercise between the US and Korea for 11 days from the 8th to the 18th of next month. As North Korea’s Chairman of the State Council Kim Jong-un publicly demanded the end of joint training at the party meeting last month, there is a high possibility of opposition. It is observed among experts on North Korea that the Biden administration can closely explore the level of tolerance to Iran’s provocations, and then put forth maximum pressure on the United States without breaking the board of negotiations. Shin Beom-cheol, director of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security at the Economic and Social Research Institute, analyzed that “from the US standpoint, Iran and North Korea are inseparable problems.” .

Reporter Park Hyun-joo [email protected]