“Biden diplomacy, domestic jobs are number one… North Korea policy will take time” [김영필의 3분 월스트리트]

5 directions of Biden’s foreign policy

“I will focus on domestic issues for the time being”

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Although Korea has no market on the 5th (local time), the New York Foreign Journalists’ Club (NYFPC) hosted a seminar on the biden government’s foreign policy by Vice Chairman James Lindsay of the American Foreign Relations Association (CFR).

It’s not very conspicuous or in-depth, but it seems to help us understand the overall direction of the Biden government. Knowing the big flow of US foreign and security policy is important for economic and stock market forecasts.

To summarize his story, there are five things. Not all of them can agree, but I’m going to break them down one by one because I’m pointing at the main points. For reference, CFR is an independent organization and has no partisanship.

◇ 5 points of Biden’s foreign policy

① Domestic policy and jobs rank first over diplomacy

② Systematic and prudent approach

③ Contrary to Trump’s mindset

④ Emphasizing human rights

⑤ The pressure from China and Russia continues

First of all, Vice Chairman Lindsay mentioned the importance of domestic issues while discussing foreign policy. “The reason Americans chose Joe Biden is because they want to solve a lot of domestic problems,” he said. “Especially the first few months of power in office will be devoted to solving domestic problems.”

In fact, President Biden has set his top goal to restore the middle class. It is also urgent to control the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), which is also linked to the restoration of the middle class.

President Biden wants to be a successful president, and he wants to achieve results in foreign policy, said Lindsey, who understands the importance of solving family problems for this. In a situation where the number of Corona 19 deaths has soared and there are many unemployed people, even if we say that we focus on overseas issues, it cannot elicit a reaction from the people.

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Of course, that doesn’t mean President Biden doesn’t care about diplomacy at all. We will do both, but for the time being, it means that we will focus more on internal issues.

The second feature is predictability, which has been mentioned a lot. Vice Chairman Lindsey said, “You won’t be tweeting at 3 am (like Trump).” “Biden’s diplomatic team is well-organized, seasoned and experienced,” he said. “The new government (unlike the Trump administration) will take an orderly and systematic approach.”

Also, at the time of the Trump administration, the Biden government would not have the same thing that the diplomatic and security team had different opinions on the issue of the withdrawal of Afghanistan. It is true that there will not be a sudden situation like President Trump, but the evaluation and analysis of the diplomatic team is relatively relatively, so it should be appropriately considered.

Next, Vice Chairman Lindsay saw that President Biden had the opposite mindset from former President Trump in terms of diplomacy. President Trump was the American First, but Biden values ​​alliances. “Biden has the opposite mindset of Trump,” he explained. “President Biden believes in the importance of American leadership and believes that it enhances US interests and US values.” At the same time, he said that President Biden seems to like the most frequently used word “The United States is back.”

It’s an intuitive analysis, but its limitations are obvious. All U.S. presidents are’American First’. America’s national interests come first. As he said, the fact that President Biden made a decision on domestic issues at the beginning of his tenure means that the United States lives first. However, compared to the days of President Trump, the difference in degree will be clear. Even the same words would be more polite.

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The fourth is human rights. Mr. Lindsey said some policies, including Biden’s return to the Paris Climate Agreement shortly after taking office, will be quite different from that of Trump. One of them is human rights.

In fact, former President Trump did not see the value of human rights very high. As a merchant, he saw human rights as one of the tools of bargaining. There were loud sanctions aimed at Hong Kong, and the Xinjiang Uighur issue was pushed by the US-China trade agreement. But President Biden won’t.

President Biden is raising his voice on Russia’s opposition leader Alexei Navalni. It seems that they will pay great attention to human rights issues in China and North Korea. This part can definitely be different. However, not everything worked out well when the United States emphasized human rights. Behind the values ​​of American human rights, American interests are also at stake. The same goes for Democratic and Republican governments. It remains to be seen what kind of color the Biden government’s human rights diplomacy will be in the future.

The last is China and Russia. His prediction is that the most important public and anti-Russian policy will follow the legacy of the Trump administration. “In some areas, we will see more continuity than change,” said Lindsey. “There may be differences in the level of expression, but the policies will look pretty similar. “We will continue the hard line for China and Russia.”

President Biden also cited China as a major competitor, and as seen in the Navalni case, he is trying to write a hard line against Russia. In fact, China and Russia are the most important things in US foreign policy. Now, China has become the first competitor to the United States. On the other hand, the fact that the approach to the two countries, which is the core of foreign and security policy, has not changed is that it is difficult to say that the overall direction of foreign policy has changed significantly. Vice-Chairman Lindsey categorized it as an alliance-oriented and approach, but if you think about it as a counterpart to its foreign and security policy, the Biden government’s policy can be seen as similar to that of Trump.

President Biden also decided to review the relocation of US troops around the world. It has decided to stop the withdrawal of US troops from Germany, and there will be no significant cuts as a result, but he, like former President Trump, wants the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the Middle East. This part is also evident in last year’s’Forine Affairs’ article. The unwavering security commitment to Israel is the same as in Trump.

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The approach to North Korea is quite different. Former President Trump himself tried to solve the problem one-on-one, but eventually failed. Biden goes back to the old way. “Perhaps the Biden administration will find a way to pressure allies to freeze nuclear development or reduce nuclear weapons once the strategic review is over,” said Lindsey. Vice Chairman Lindsay thinks that he will also try to use China.

“It takes some time for Biden’s team to all have the same idea,” he said. “The important thing is that North Korea can do something (in between). “By testing nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles, you can make the Biden government suddenly say or do something.” Even in the Biden administration, the North Korean nuclear issue is read as saying that it will take a long time and there may not be an adequate answer.

/New York = Correspondent Kim Young-pil [email protected]

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