Around 500 today… Risk factors due to easing of some measures to extend distance

Recently, the number of new confirmed cases of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) in Korea has maintained around 500.

Compared to the peak of last month, when it recorded 1,000 people, it has definitely decreased, but it is showing a’stasis’ pattern that does not increase or decrease even more at the 500 level.

In this situation, attention is focused on whether the current’social distancing’ (the 2.5th stage in the metropolitan area and the 2nd stage in the non-metropolitan area) and the ban on private gatherings of 5 or more people will be extended until the end of this month.

However, there are concerns that the number of new confirmed cases will turn to an increase again, as the quarantine measures for indoor sports facilities including gyms, multi-use facilities such as karaoke and academy, and religious facilities have been partially eased, although it is still favorable for the virus survival in winter.

Moreover, there is a Lunar New Year holiday, which is expected to take place next month, such as visiting hometowns, relatives, and traveling, so if awareness is relaxed, re-proliferation may be triggered at any time.

◇ Today, around 500 people are expected… It seems that 500 people will continue for six days

According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 17th, as of 0 o’clock the previous day, 580 new cases were confirmed.

Since the 12th, it has been in 500 units for five days.

The number of new confirmed cases has gradually decreased since this year, but recently it has remained at 500. Compared to the end of last month, it was reduced by half, but it is not falling further from the 500 level.

The number of new confirmed cases to be announced as of 0 o’clock on this day is expected to reach around 500.

The quarantine authorities and local governments, such as the Seoul Metropolitan Government, counted 474 new confirmed cases midway between 0 and 9 pm the previous day.

There were 50 fewer than 524 the day before.

By day, new confirmed patients this month are 1,27 → 820 → 657 → 1,20 → 714 → 838 → 869 → 674 → 641 → 657 → 451 → 537 → 561 → 524 people → 512 people → 580 people, except for two days, all below 1,000 people.

In the last week (1.10-16), an average of 546 new confirmed cases per day occurred, and the number of confirmed local cases was 516 per day, down to the 2.5-level range (400 to 500 or more nationwide, or when doubling is rapidly increasing). come.

However, the number of confirmed cases of existing outbreak cases is increasing day by day, and new group infections, large and small, are being confirmed throughout the country, so the risk of spread is still high.

In fact, a number of new infection cases were confirmed the day before, including the church in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul (accumulated 16 people), the US military base in Yongsan-gu (18 people), and a medical institution in Geumjeong-gu, Busan (18 people).

In particular, in connection with the BTJ Universal Center in Sangju, Gyeongsangbuk-do, confirmed cases have been steadily found, and 756 people have been infected so far. There are more than 1,000 people whose test results have not yet been registered, and the number of related confirmed cases is expected to increase further.

Bang Dae-bon is requesting the center visitors to receive diagnostic tests as soon as possible.

Sook-young Lim, head of the situation general manager Bang Dae-bon, at a briefing the previous day, said, “There was a large-scale retreat at the BTJ Community Center in Sangju, and further spread as participants attended the meetings of other churches. He said, “I think similar cases are being repeated through the Jinju Prayer Center.”

◇ Stay away from meetings with more than 5 people, extended by 2 weeks… Experts “The key is how well quarantine rules are followed”

The government has decided to extend the current distance and ban on private gatherings of 5 or more people until the 31st in order to reliably curb the spread of Corona 19.

However, the ban on multi-use facilities such as indoor sports facilities in the metropolitan area, where the issue of equity was raised, singing practice centers, and indoor standing performance halls, etc., was eased to allow business in accordance with the quarantine rules, and cafes were also allowed to eat in stores until 9 pm did.

During the next two weeks, the government will evaluate the epidemic situation and review steps to adjust the distance and take additional measures to mitigate quarantine.

In a briefing the day before, Kwon Deok-cheol, the first deputy head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said in a briefing on the previous day, “If the average number of patients per day enters the level of 400, which is the level 2 standard, we plan to evaluate and review the risk.”

Infectious disease experts acknowledged the inevitability of mitigating some quarantine measures, but agreed that as risk factors increased, eventually how well individual citizens comply with the quarantine rules will determine whether Corona 19 is calmed or spread in the future.

“Citizens’ efforts to comply with the quarantine regulations are necessary,” said Jeong Ki-seok, a professor at Hallym University, who served as the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and predicted that “if the quarantine regulations are followed well, the number of patients will not increase significantly.”

Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Kodae Guro Hospital said, “There is a feeling of fatigue and there are disadvantages (because it breaks the spreading tax) considering it is winter. The key is how well quarantine regulations are followed.”

Kim Moran, a professor at the National Cancer Center, said, “Because the quarantine measures have continued for so long, some people needed to take a breath.” Yes. If the group infection in religious facilities is not caught, the ‘4th epidemic’ could come,” he warned.

Meanwhile, the government has also prepared special quarantine measures in preparation for the Lunar New Year holiday (2.11-14), which is approaching a month in the future.

The period for special quarantine measures for Lunar New Year is two weeks from the first of next month.

Special quarantine measures included plans to sell railroad tickets only for window seats and to consider converting tolls on highways to reduce the risk of re-spreading Corona 19 due to large-scale movement. It also included restrictions on the consumption of indoor food at rest areas on highways and only allowed for package sales.

[연합뉴스]

Copyrights ⓒ Yonhap News. Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited