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| (Pyongyang Nodong Newspaper = News 1) = North Korea announced on the 26th that it was a’new tactical guided missile’ about the estimated short-range ballistic missile launched on the 25th the previous day. [국내에서만 사용가능. 재배포 금지. DB 금지. For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. Redistribution Prohibited] [email protected] |
As North Korea recently conducted a test launch of a ballistic missile, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have risen, and major variables that will affect the situation on the Korean Peninsula in April are left to be noted on the 28th.
National Security Officer Seo Hoon is heading to Washington to attend the Korea-US-Japan Security Officer’s Meeting this week.
It seems likely that North Korea’s test-launch of a ballistic missile banned by the UN Security Council resolution on the 25th will be discussed at this meeting of the security officers of the ROK-US and Japan. This was, in fact, the first provocation of the Joe Biden administration since its inception.
North Korea was a legitimate act to strengthen its’defense’, suggesting the possibility of further provocations in the future, and stressing that “it will continue to develop the most thorough and overwhelming military power.”
However, President Biden declared this a violation of UN sanctions on North Korea and warned that if North Korea chooses to increase tensions, it will respond accordingly. Japan also expressed strong regret for launching ballistic missiles.
In this situation, as the Korea-US-Japan Security Officer’s Meeting is held, there is high interest in how the opinions of the three countries related to the new US policy toward North Korea are gathered, and how it will affect the Biden government’s policy toward North Korea, which is currently under review.
Since the positions of the United States and Japan are clear, it is unclear whether the Korean government will come up with a policy toward North Korea that is resilient enough to resume the peace process on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, according to the opinion narrowing here, there is a possibility that North Korea will choose to increase or resolve tensions.
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| (Pyongyang Labor News = News 1) = North Korean Labor Party general secretary Kim Jong-un. [국내에서만 사용가능. 재배포 금지. DB 금지. For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. Redistribution Prohibited] [email protected] |
Another variable in April is’Sunday’, the birthday of President Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of the Labor Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un, which is approaching on the 15th.
North Korea has previously carried out armed provocations in line with the Sun Festival. Last year, while refraining from large-scale events, North Korea celebrated the Day of the Sun through military activities such as launching cruise missiles and training fighter jets after three years.
In addition, in April 2012, the first solar day after taking power, Kim Jong-un launched Galaxy 3 equipped with Gwangmyeongseong 3 satellite, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) class, and in April 2016, it was classified as a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Test fired the Sudan missile. In 2017, seven new types of missiles were unveiled along with Byungsik.
After the launch of the ballistic missile on the 25th, there are many prospects that North Korea will raise the level of provocation until the Sun Day. It is an analysis that North Korea can continue to provoke to the US in order to “adjust the water level” to the US at a certain level, but to unite the inside and examine the reaction of the Biden government.
In addition, the point at which the review of the US policy toward North Korea, expected in April, is also expected to be a variable that can have a significant impact on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
White House spokesman Jen Saki said at a regular press briefing on the 26th (local time), “We are in the final stage of reviewing North Korea policy. We are discussing the review of North Korea policy with security advisors in Korea and Japan. It will take place next week. The meetings are an important part of our review process.”
Due to the nature of President Biden, who emphasizes principle-based foreign policy, if North Korea strengthens additional sanctions against North Korea for launching ballistic missiles or raises the issue of North Korean human rights, which North Korea reacts somewhat sensitively, North Korea will strongly oppose it and the tension on the Korean Peninsula. There is also the possibility of heightening.
The Korean government’s shoulders are also becoming heavier, ahead of various events in April, which will be an inflection point in the situation on the Korean peninsula. It is expected that the Korean government will strive to convey our position and opinions on the biden administration’s North Korea policy by emphasizing the ROK-US alliance and coordinating the conflict between North Korea.
President Moon Jae-in attended the ‘6th West Sea Protection Day’ commemoration ceremony on the 25th and warned that “it is never desirable to cause difficulties in the atmosphere of dialogue” regarding North Korea’s launching of a short-range missile that is supposed to be a ballistic missile. Now is the time for both the South, North and the United States to make an effort to continue the dialogue,” he emphasized.