No specific movement in the foldable supply chain…estimated existence on the Apple roadmap
Consideration of profit and foldable technology stability after expanding OLED iPhone
It seems that Apple has not decided whether to release a foldable phone. There are foldable products on the development roadmap, but no visible movement in the supply chain required for mass production was detected.
According to the industry on the 19th, Apple is currently reviewing foldable phones, but it is known that it has not entered specific stages such as product design. In general, Apple directly designates materials and parts manufacturers after product design, but so far there is no clear movement in the foldable panel supply chain.
In order for the ‘2023 foldable iPhone release theory’, which has recently spread through foreign media and industry, to become a reality, a specific product plan must be released in the second half of this year. Apple develops products with partners in earnest for two to three years before launching new products.
The foldable panel supply chain is established in the second half of this year, and panel makers such as Samsung Display and LG Display must make large-scale investments in early next year to see the foldable iPhone in 2023. However, since Apple does not have to rush to launch a foldable phone, even if the supply chain is established in the second half, 2024 is more realistic than 2023.
There are many factors to consider for the panel alone. Apple can decide to launch a product only when technology stability such as a foldable organic light-emitting diode (OLED) set of organic materials, a radius of curvature (degree of folding), and a cover window is secured. Samsung Display, which mass-produced foldable OLED panels to Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy Fold in 2019, is still developing technology to increase the durability and usability of foldable panels. It’s an excellent technology, but it’s not a complete technology.
At the same time, Apple is currently significantly reducing the proportion of LCD iPhones and increasing OLED iPhones, so business profitability should also be considered. Because OLED iPhones are expensive in materials, if the proportion increases, the profitability of the entire iPhone business may decrease. An official predicted that “iPhone’s OLED portion will exceed LCD from this year, and OLED will dominate LCD until the second half of next year.”
However, in the industry, there is a foldable in Apple’s product development roadmap. Apple is applying (application) for a foldable patent and is partially working on a foldable panel development project. However, it is the opinion of the industry that these development tasks are not Apple’s finalizing product design for release and proceeding with development tasks. Another official said, “Apple is reviewing the foldable panel, but the release of the set (finished product) is still lukewarm.”
There is also an expectation that Apple will enter the foldable market at the’right time’ because of technology leadership. In the situation where the smartphone market is stagnant, there is no sharp escape other than the foldable right now, but if Apple’s entry into the market is too late, Samsung Electronics could completely take the initiative. When Apple releases the foldable iPhone, it is predicted that it will be absolutely unaffected by sales volume as it can absorb demand for the iPad mini.
However, even at this time, a cover window such as Ultra Shin Glass (UTG) or Transparent Polyimide (PI) must support the stylus stably. Samsung Electronics has not yet released a foldable product that supports the S Pen. Samsung Electronics is currently working on a way to support the stylus by making the folded part thin and the rest thick in the UTG cover window.
Samsung Electronics sold around 2.5 million foldable products last year. It was only 50-60% of the 4.5 million to 5 million units that were originally expected by the company. The market reaction, user experience, and panel maturity of Samsung Electronics’ new foldable products to be released this year are expected to influence Apple’s decision. This is because Samsung Electronics’ new foldable products serve as a major indicator of the foldable market forecast and technology stability.
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