‘Apple expert’ Guo Ming-chi “You shouldn’t be fooled by Aika’s theme liquor”

Input 2020.12.29 13:13

TF International Analyst Guo Ming-chi, a world leader in Apple product analysis, warned against buying theme stocks related to Apple autonomous vehicles. It is explained that the release schedule of iCar (tentative name) is unclear, and there is nothing determined about what final specifications will be equipped and who will procure the parts.

In a memo sent to investors on the 27th, Guo Ming-chi pointed out that “the market is overly optimistic about the I-Car release schedule,” and said, “Even if development starts this year and everything goes as planned, the release will only be possible in 2025-2027 as soon as possible.” So, for now, he says, it’s not surprising that the launch is delayed after 2028.

Guo Ming-chi pointed out that it is unreasonable to discuss the final specifications of I-Car as the technical specifications of self-driving and electric vehicles continue to evolve. For this reason, it is not very meaningful to search for candidates for component suppliers in advance.

Guo Ming-chi also conservatively saw the possibility of Aika’s success. The logic is that Apple cannot succeed in every business it challenges. In particular, the competition in the autonomous driving and electric vehicle markets is more intense than the smart speaker market, where Apple has failed to enter.

In the case of self-driving cars, Guo Ming-chi said that the success or failure depends on software such as big data and artificial intelligence, not hardware. It is an analysis that the difference between the amount of data accumulated by competitors and the level of deep learning based on the amount of data accumulated while Apple is devoting itself to the development of electric vehicles cannot be narrowed.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Apple is developing self-driving car technology and is aiming to launch a passenger car with a monocell battery by 2024. According to reports, Apple is planning to develop its own monocell battery, just like a passenger car. Monocell refers to a method of securing battery capacity by removing pouches and modules containing battery materials.

After the report was released, stock prices of some companies developing autonomous vehicle parts such as lidar (radar using laser) sensors and vehicle parts suppliers surged. Some of these were due to the expectation that they might become Apple’s suppliers.

However, Elon Musk, CEO of electric vehicle maker Tesla, raised a question, “If (the report is) true, it is a little strange,” and “monocell batteries are electrochemically impossible.” Citibank also said in a report that the auto industry’s yield is much lower than that of the information technology (IT) sector and is very skeptical that Apple actually produces cars.