An accident of 4.4 trillion won in ants alone, foreign organizations threw a for sale bomb.

◆ KOSPI uneasy running ◆

Individual investors bought more than 4 trillion won in the securities market on the 11th, recording a record high in individual net purchases. An institutional investor net sold 3.7 trillion won worth of sales on the day and poured out sales at a record level, but as individuals digested this, the KOSPI fell only 0.12%.

Foreign investors net sold more than 1.8 trillion won in the KOSPI futures market on the day, but individual purchases of domestic stocks prevented the KOSPI plunge.

According to the Korea Exchange, on the same day, individual investors net bought 4,492.1 billion won in the securities market. On November 30, last year, when the MSCI index was readjusted, individuals bought 2,225.2 trillion won worth of foreign sales against foreigners. On this day, they bought more than twice the amount, breaking a new record for net buying. On the other hand, institutions sold 3,7432 trillion won, and foreigners sold 7176 billion won. The trading value of the securities market also reached a record high of 44,433.8 billion won.

On this day, the stock market showed a roller coaster market as individuals, institutions, and foreigners had a breathtaking battle. As individuals showed net buying of around 2 trillion won in the morning, KOSPI soared to 3266.23 at 10:15 am. However, the KOSPI was pushed to 3096.19 at 1:32 pm amid the wave of selling by institutions and foreigners.

According to the exchange, the fluctuation range of the KOSPI on this day recorded 170.04 points, the second highest fluctuation since March 19 last year when the market panic due to the corona 19 pandemic. There were no special negatives, but it is interpreted as a result of large-scale sales of foreigners and institutions that felt burdened by the index rise as the KOSPI rose too quickly. The daily rate of change in KOSPI reached 6.50% on this day. This is also the second highest since March last year. The rate of change is calculated based on how much the fluctuation is relative to the daily average of the KOSPI.

On this day, the institution poured out large-scale sales in the securities market. Among institutions, financial investment was a record high with net selling worth of KRW 2.213 trillion. Financial investment refers to the quantity in which securities companies manage their own assets such as equity capital. Since it is a unique asset, it is sensitive to short-term yield fluctuations, mainly through arbitrage between spots and futures. The futures price should be higher than the spot price because it reflects the uncertainty of the future market. If the futures price is lower than the spot price, it is called’backwardation’, and investors make a profit by buying cheap futures and selling expensive spots. They buy low-priced futures and, when they expire, are delivered and sold as high-priced spots.

The KOSPI 200 futures price is ahead of the KOSPI 200 spot price as foreigners have sold off this year. In fact, on the 11th, foreigners net sold KRW 1.882.3 trillion in KOSPI 200 futures and Mini KOSPI 200 futures. As a result, on this day, the KOSPI 200 futures averaged about 0.7 points lower than the KOSPI 200. Samsung Securities researcher Jeon Gyun said, “When the difference between KOSPI 200 futures and spots was 0.2 points or less, financial investments showed net purchases.”

The background of foreigners’ selling of KOSPI 200 futures is the perception that the US long-term interest rate has turned upward. Since the 6th, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield has exceeded 1.1%. It is estimated that the US long-term interest rate, which fell by 0.5% during the corona 19 pandemic last year, has turned to a rebound, and investment funds are being drained from risky assets.

Heo Tae-oh, a researcher at Samsung Futures, said, “According to the expectation that the Joe Biden administration, which is officially launched on the 20th, will come out with a large-scale stimulus, the US mid- and long-term interest rates are rising.” It is interpreted as tolerating an increase in interest rates, saying that there is no need to increase or adjust maturity.”

Meanwhile, the share price of Samsung Electronics, the number one market capitalization, surpassed 90,000 won for the first time based on the closing price. Samsung Electronics rose 2.48% on that day to 91,000 won. The KOSDAQ index closed at 976.63, down 1.13%. While institutions net sold 85.7 billion won, foreigners and individuals net bought 33.7 billion won and 86 billion won respectively.

[김규식 기자]
[ⓒ 매일경제 & mk.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]