Again spread to around 1,000 people… Even a mutant virus originating from the UK has been overwhelmed.

It seems that the situation of a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) in Korea is going to worsen.

Amid various quarantine measures, such as strengthening’social distancing’ and implementing’special quarantine measures during the year-end and New Year’, the increase in confirmed cases decreased somewhat after the Christmas holiday (12.25-27), but no obvious decline or clear reversal was observed.

Due to the weekly trend of patient occurrence, there is a high possibility that the number of new confirmed cases will increase again from the middle of this week.

It was confirmed that the’mutant virus’, which is rapidly spreading in the UK, has also flowed into the country as a result of being overwhelmed, causing an emergency to the quarantine authorities. This mutant virus is known to have 1.7 times more transmission power than the currently prevalent virus in Korea, and if it spreads in the country, the government’s response to quarantine becomes difficult.

◇ Today, around 1,000 people again… “The risk is still high”

According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 29th, as of 0 o’clock the previous day, there were 808 new corona19 confirmed cases in Korea.

During the Christmas holiday period, 1,241 people and 1,132 people were respectively represented on the 25-26 days of the holiday season, ranking first and second after the corona 19 incident in Korea, but fell below 1,000 people on the 27th (970 people), followed by three digits for two consecutive days. Kept.

However, it is too early to conclude that the spread has eased.

Usually, on weekends and holidays, the number of confirmed cases tends to decrease as the number of tests decreases. However, the number of tests from the last 25 to 27 was only 30,000 to 36,000, which was significantly less than the average of 50,000 on the previous weekday.

In fact, the number of new confirmed cases to be announced as of 0 o’clock on that day is expected to reach around 1,000 again.

The number of new confirmed cases counted by the quarantine authorities and local governments such as Seoul by 9:30 pm the previous day is 931. This included 233 additional confirmed cases at the Eastern Detention Center of the Ministry of Justice.

Among these, the fact that the rate of unknown infection route is high, which does not know when and where it was infected, which is deepening the concerns of the quarantine authorities.

Of the 14,199 newly confirmed cases in the last two weeks from the 15th to the 28th of this month, 4,66 (28.6%) cases are investigating the path of infection. This means that nearly 3 out of 10 people do not know the route of infection.

‘The proportion of management within the quarantine network’, which refers to the percentage of new confirmed cases confirmed in self-isolation, is also on a weekly decline from the end of November to 43.6% → 38.0% → 32.8% → 31.2%. This means that more and more confirmed cases are out of the authorities’ quarantine management network.

The quarantine authorities stipulate this situation as’still at a high risk of infection’.

In fact, the spread power, which shows how many people around one confirmed person infect, in other words, the’infection reproductive index’ has dropped to 1.11 in the last week (12.20~26), but has not yet fallen below 1. If the reproductive index of infection exceeds 1, it is considered to be’continuous’, and if it is less than 1, it is considered to be a’proliferation suppression’ stage.

In a briefing the day before, Jung Eun-kyung, head of Bangdae Headquarters, said, “The number of new confirmed cases decreased slightly on the 27th and 28th, but the effects of the decrease in the amount of testing during the Christmas holiday should be considered.”

Jung said, “When looking at the increase in the number of patients on a weekly basis, the rate of increase was around 30% in the last few weeks, but it has slowed slightly to 7% last week,” he said. “But the risk of community infection is still high.”

◇ Nervous over the appearance of a mutant virus from the UK… Is it a quarantine response’variable’?

In this situation, even a mutant virus originating from the UK has appeared, and the quarantine authorities are tightly tense.

According to Bang Dae-bon, the mutant virus was confirmed in three samples of four family members living in London, England, and entering Korea on the 22nd of this month.

As these families were positive at the time of entry, Bang Dae-bon is conducting investigations into contact persons, such as passengers, as it is likely to be transmitted in-flight. At that time, 62 passengers and 12 crew members were on the same flight, but all the crew members were negative.

In particular, four other family members from Goyang City, Gyeonggi Province, who entered the UK on the 8th and 13th of this month, apart from this family, were also confirmed, and a detailed examination is currently underway for infection with the mutant virus. One of them in their 80s was confirmed after death on the 26th, followed by three family members.

If these families are found to be infected with the mutant virus, concerns about community infection are likely to increase. It is known that one of them, who entered the country first, was confirmed as confirmed after self-isolation was lifted and there was contact with the local community.

Experts believe that the mutant virus will be a’critical variable’ that will influence the future trend.

Eun-mi Chun, professor of respiratory medicine at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, said, “It was first discovered in the UK in September and the number of confirmed cases began to increase from November.” “If the infection continues to spread in the community, it will not be able to handle the spread of the mutant virus.” Pointed out.

The quarantine authorities are planning to prevent the influx of mutant viruses into Korea as much as possible, but there are voices mixed with concerns that it will not be easy to block the inflow, given that the spread of the virus is getting stronger in countries including the UK.

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