“Even if the overall indicators improve, the gap between detailed indicators…the affected sectors may continue to be sluggish”
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The game, which slipped due to the third pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), is showing signs of a rebound after hardening the floor.
On the 21st, various economic indicators show that consumption, which was suppressed while export improvement continues, is also expanding. Employment in the face-to-face service industry decreased from a year ago, but increased compared to the previous month.
However, it is pointed out that despite the improvement of the overall indicators, the recovery rate by industry and sector is different, so the difficulties experienced by the victims in the field are still great. There are also concerns that if the spread of Corona 19 increases again, the recovery trend may be weakened.
◇ Consumption rebound due to easing distance and anticipation for vaccines Accelerating’retaliation consumption’
Exports in February increased 9.5% even though the operating days were three days less than a year ago, and continued an increase for the fourth month. The average daily export amount was 2.3 billion dollars, the highest in the same month.
In the midst of this, some consumption, which had collapsed due to the third pandemic, is also reviving.
The amount of card approval in Korea stopped decreasing from the same month last year for two consecutive months in December (-3.9%) and January (-2.0%) and turned to an increase of 8.6% in February.
Department store sales in February increased 39.5%, the highest growth rate since 2005, when the government started monitoring.
The first weekend of this month, the 5th to the 7th, Hyundai Department Store[069960] It is analyzed that sales have surpassed the level before the Corona 19 crisis, with sales increasing 109.8% from the first weekend in March last year and 94% at Lotte Department Store.
Discount store sales (24.2%) and online sales (9.5%) also increased from a year ago, and the consumer sentiment index (CSI) also increased from January (95.4) to 97.4.
Consumption seems to have rebounded as some easing of social distancing measures, the warm spring weather, and anticipation for the vaccine effect had a compound effect. ‘Retaliation consumption’ is also accelerating.
Although there are still 400 confirmed cases of Corona 19 per day, there is an analysis that the extent of the damage to consumption is gradually decreasing due to the’learning effect’ of the coronavirus situation.
◇ The number of employed in the lodging and restaurant business, increased by nearly 100,000 from the previous month
Employment in February is better than in January, which was the’worst’ level. In January, the number of employed workers decreased from 982,000 compared to the same month last year to 473,000 in February.
Still, compared to a year ago, the number of employed people decreased significantly. However, compared to the previous month as a seasonally adjusted figure, there is some possibility of employment improvement.
The number of seasonally adjusted employment in February increased by 532,000 from January. It is the largest since the statistics were written in June 1999. Even taking into account the base effect of the January employment shock, it is quite high.
In particular, it is noteworthy that the number of employed in the lodging and restaurant business, the representative face-to-face service industry where the Corona 19 hit was concentrated, increased by 98,000 compared to the previous month. This is the largest since the statistics were written in February 2013.
The number of employed in the lodging and restaurant businesses declined from the previous month for two consecutive months in December of last year (-129,000) and in January of this year (-60,000) and then rebounded in February.
Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and Minister of Strategy and Finance explained that “February’s job market difficulties were remarkably mitigated,” and “improving the employment market is a major factor in the rapid recovery of face-to-face service employment due to improved quarantine conditions.”
The government’s public job program also seems to have had a big impact on some of the employment improvements in February.
The number of employees in the health, social welfare service, public administration, defense, and social security administration, reflecting the effect of the public job program, increased by 212,000 and 83,000, respectively, compared to the previous month.
◇ “The recovery trend is correct, but the gap between the overall indicators and the detailed indicators is large”
There are some signs that the economy has bottomed out and started rebounding, but experts are still cautious.
In particular, even if the overall indicator improves, it is an opinion that attention should be paid to the fact that the recovery rate varies by sector and by sector and the impact of the base effect.
Professor Kim So-young of Seoul National University said, “The economy seems to be out of the worst. The bottom seems to have passed,” he said. “It is not likely that it will take more time to fully normalize, but the recovery trend is correct.”
However, he added, “The face-to-face service industry, tourism, aviation, etc. are still not good,” he added. “It seems that employment recovery will be slow, and consumption is not clear if it has actually recovered, considering the base effect.
Deok-sang Cho, a researcher at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), pointed out that “the recovery trend is correct, but the situation where the gap between the overall macro index and each detailed index is widening will continue.”
He analyzed that “consumption of durable goods has increased significantly and consumption of non-durable goods has increased. Even if the overall indicators improve, industries that are directly affected may continue to be sluggish as long as Corona 19 continues.”
With the start of vaccination at home and abroad, the economic recovery trend is expected to continue in the future, but the re-proliferation of Corona 19 is still a big variable.
Joo-won, head of the economic research department of Hyundai Economic Research Institute, said, “As the number of confirmed patients increased last summer and the economy was hit, we still should not be vigilant. Prevention is the most important.” As it grows, the indicators related to the face-to-face service industry may collapse again,” he emphasized.
/ Sejong = Reporter Park Hyo-jung [email protected]
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