The government decided to reduce the proportion of coal power generation from 40.4% last year to 29.9% in 2030 through the 9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand by 10.5 percentage points. To this end, the number of coal power plants with 58 units of 35.8GW as of this year will be reduced to 43 units of 32.6GW by 2030.
However, controversy is anticipated as coal power generation is expected to maintain its position as the largest base power source 10 years later. The forecast for power generation in 2030 is in the order of 29.9% for coal, 25.0% for nuclear power, 23.3% for liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 20.8% for new and renewable energy. This is the reason why even greater challenges are expected after 2030 in the process of implementing the’zero (zero)’ carbon emissions targeting 2050.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy confirmed and announced the ‘9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan’, which contained 15 years of power supply and demand forecast, demand management, power facility plan, power market system improvement, and GHG reduction plan from this year to 2034. did.
Coal de-coal, nuclear power plant, renewable energy ‘3-track’
The 9th previous version reflects the changes in the policy environment after the 8th plan, including the 3rd Basic Energy Plan, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Revision Roadmap, and the Korean New Deal Comprehensive Plan. It contains three main contents, such as ▲ de-coal ▲ de-nuclear power plant ▲ expansion of renewable energy.
Looking at the composition of facilities by power source (based on rated capacity), nuclear power plants (18.2%) and coal (28.1%) will decrease to 10.1% and 15.0%, respectively, by 2034. On the other hand, renewable energy is currently increasing from 15.8% to 40.3%. LNG is expected to decrease slightly to 30.6%.
Last year, the share of power generation was calculated as coal 40.4%, liquefied natural gas (LNG) 25.6%, nuclear power 25.9%, and renewable energy 6.5%. The international community, including the UN, saw that in order to be carbon neutral in 2050, it is necessary to accelerate reductions by 2030, and for this, a more rapid coal reduction is needed.
First of all, the 30 units of coal power plants will be abolished starting in 2034, with an operating life of 30 years. Of these, 24 units will be converted to LNG power plants to stabilize supply and demand.
Coal power plants that will be completely abolished by 2022 are Boryeong Units 1 and 2, Samcheonpo Units 1 and 2, and Honam Units 1 and 2. Subsequently, 18 units, including Dangjin Units 1-4, Boryeong Units 5 and 6, Samcheonpo Units 3-6, Taean Units 1-4, and Hadong Units 1-4, will be gradually replaced by LNG power plants from 2023 to 2030.
The six units, including Youngheung Units 1 and 2, Taean Units 5 and 6, and Hadong Units 5 and 6, will be converted to LNG power plants from 2031 to 2034 after 2030. However, 7 units, including Samcheok Thermal Power Plant 1 and 2, Shinseocheon Thermal Power Plant 1, Anin Thermal Power Plant 1 and 2, and High Thermal Power Plant 1 and 2, will be completed as scheduled.
Accordingly, the capacity of coal power plants is expected to decrease from 58 units this year, 35.8 gigawatts (GW), to 37 units in 2034, and 29.0 GW.
This is in contrast to the increase in LNG power plant capacity from 41.3GW to 58.1GW this year. In the case of LNG power plants, Yeoju Combined Cycle Power Plant, Eumseong Natural Gas Power Plant, Ulsan GPS, and Tongyeong Combined Cycle Power Plant are expected to be completed by 2024.
Nuclear power plant operation stops one after another, and renewable energy rises steeply
Nuclear power plants have increased slightly from the current 24 units to 26 units in 2022, and then will decrease to 17 units in 2034. The new nuclear power plants, Shin-Kori Units 5 and 6, are completed, and Kori Units 2 to 4, Wolseong Units 2 to 4, Hanbit Units 1 to 3, and Hanul Units 1 and 2 are stopped.
The government adheres to the principle of abolition of new nuclear power plants and prohibition of life extension. Shinhanul Units 3 and 4, which had previously been suspended according to this policy, were also removed from the power supply source.
The capacity of new and renewable energy facilities is expected to increase fourfold from 20.1GW this year to 77.8GW in 2034. Solar and wind power generation capacity is 45.6GW and 24.9GW, respectively, accounting for 91% of renewable energy generation sources.
From this year to 2034, 62.3GW of new renewable energy facilities will be supplied, and it is expected to achieve 22.2% of the renewable energy generation share in 2034.
By 2034, the capacity of hydrogen fuel cells is expected to increase by 3.5 times from the previous 8th plan to secure 2.6GW. The intermediate target for renewable energy generation facilities as of 2025, which is an intermediate point, has also been raised from 29.9GW to 42.7GW.
As of 2030, the target for greenhouse gas emissions in the conversion sector is 191 million tons. Such a GHG reduction plan was specified in conjunction with the 2030 National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target (NDC), which is scheduled to be submitted to the UN at the end of this year.
This is a 23.6% decrease from 252 million tons in 2017, and the proportion of annual coal power generation is expected to decrease from 40.4% last year to 29.9% in 2030.
The emission of fine dust in the power generation sector is expected to decrease by about 57% from 21,000 tons last year to 9,000 tons in 2030. The proportion of decentralized power generation will increase significantly from about 12% this year to about 21% in 2034.
Target demand for 2034 102.5GW… Supply of renewable energy and eco-friendly vehicles is key
The government projected the maximum power demand in 2034 to be 117.5 gigawatts (GW). The target demand is 102.5GW, taking into account the demand management goal and the spread of electric vehicles.
The annual average growth rate of the maximum power of 1.0% was estimated to decrease by 0.3 percentage points compared to the 8th amid the decline in the annual average economic growth forecast. Although the power consumption due to the expansion of the 4th industry was not quantified, the maximum power demand due to the spread of electric vehicles was projected to increase by about 1GW in 2034, taking into account the electric vehicle supply goal and charging pattern.
The demand management target was improved compared to the previous plan, such as reducing power consumption by 14.9% (96.3 terawatt hours, TWh) and maximum power demand by 12.6% (14.8GW) compared to standard demand.
The government plans to reduce the maximum power of 6.7GW by improving the standards for the efficiency management system and expanding the supply of highly efficient equipment and energy management systems (EMS). In addition, it plans to reduce the maximum power of 7.08GW through load management, such as improving the demand resource (DR) market and supplying energy storage systems (ESS).
The target facility capacity for 2034 was calculated as 125.1GW, reflecting the base facility reserve rate of 22% to the target demand of 102.5GW. To meet this, in addition to the facility plan of 122.2GW, it is necessary to newly expand 2.8GW of additional facilities.
Accordingly, the government plans to expand 2.8GW of new facilities to LNG and pumped-up power generation, which are backup facilities to respond to volatility in new and renewable energy.
The government predicted that if the power generation facilities currently being promoted are completed as planned, the facility reserve ratio will remain above 18% by 2028. It is predicted that the base facility reserve ratio of 22% will be achieved through the completion of new facilities from 2029.
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On the other hand, the Ministry of Industry and Industry, following the confirmation of the 9th electricity version, also included the ‘5th New and Renewable Energy Basic Plan’,’The 14th Long-Term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan’,’Distributed Energy Activation Roadmap’, and’Long-Term Transmission and Substation Facility Plan’. Establish in turn.
An official from the Ministry of Industry said, “The outlook for power demand and mid- to long-term power mix to achieve the goal of 2050 carbon neutrality will also be reviewed and presented in the next plan sequentially based on the establishment of related legislation and securing consistency with the higher plan.”