Ministry of Industry “The increase in electricity rates by 2030 is 10.9% compared to 2017”
Greenhouse gas emissions of 193 million tons in 2030…Environmental dispatch and coal cap system introduced
[서울파이낸스 박시형 기자] The government has issued the ‘9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan’, which aims to reduce coal and nuclear power generation and expand renewable energy by four times. The government forecast that the increase in electricity rates by 2030 will not deviate significantly from the 10.9% level compared to 2017.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy held a public hearing on the 9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand (draft), which contained plans for power generation facilities for 15 years until 2034 at the KEPCO Art Center in Seocho-gu, Seoul.
In consideration of the COVID-19 quarantine, the public hearing was broadcast live on YouTube, with only some officials, such as the topic presenter and debater, attending the site.
The 9th power plan released by the Ministry of Industry on this day included plans to gradually reduce coal and nuclear power generation and expand new and renewable energy.
First of all, 30 coal power plants with 30 years of operation until 2034 will be abolished. To stabilize supply and demand, 24 of these will be converted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) power generation.
Boryeong Units 1 and 2, Samcheonpo Units 1 and 2, and Honam Units 1 and 2 will be completely abolished by 2022. 18 units, including Samcheonpo 3-6, Taean 1-4, Hadong 1-4, Dangjin 1-4 and Boryeong 5-6, will be replaced by LNG power generation from 2023 to 2030. Six units, including Taean units 5 and 6, Hadong units 5 and 6, and Yeongheung units 1 and 2, will be converted to LNG power generation from 2031 to 2034.
Seven coal power plants currently under construction, such as Gangneung Anin Thermal Power Plant Units 1 and 2, Samcheok Thermal Power Plant Units 1 and 2, Seocheon Shinseocheon Thermal Power Plant Units, and Goseong High Thermal Power Plant Units 1 and 2, will be completed as scheduled.
Accordingly, the capacity of coal power plants will decrease from 35.8 GW (58 units) this year to 29.0 GW (37 units) in 2034.
In accordance with the principle of prohibiting new and extended life, the number of nuclear power plants will be reduced to 17 units by 2034 after peaking at 26 units in 2022 when Shinhanul units 1 and 2 are completed.
From 2023 to 2034, Shin-Kori units 5 and 6 will be completed, and 11 old power generators will be shut down. The facility capacity will decrease from 23.3GW (24 units) at present to 19.4GW (17 units) in 2034. Shinhanul Units 3 and 4, whose construction has been suspended according to the nuclear power plant roadmap, are excluded from the power supply source.
The facility capacity of LNG power generation will increase from 41.3GW this year to 58.1GW in 2034. By 2024, the Yeoju Complex, Tongyeong Complex, Eumseong Natural Gas, and Ulsan GPS will be built, and by 2034, old coal power plants will be converted to LNG, resulting in an increase in facility capacity.
Renewable energy facility capacity will increase by about 4 times from 20.1GW this year to 77.8GW in 2034, reflecting the renewable energy 3020, hydrogen economy activation roadmap, and green new deal plan. As of 2025, the median target for renewable energy generation facilities has been raised from the previous 29.9GW to 42.7GW.
According to the plan, the composition ratio of each power plant based on effective capacity in 2034 is LNG 47.3%, coal 22.7%, nuclear power plants 15.5%, renewable 8.6%, and others 5.9%. Compared to this year, LNG increases by 9.9%p and renewables by 5.3%p, coal decreases by 9.2%p and nuclear power plants by 5.5%p.
The Ministry of Industry predicted that by 2028, the reserve ratio of facilities will be over 18%, maintaining a stable power supply and demand. It also announced that from 2029, it will achieve a facility reserve ratio of 22% through the construction of new facilities.
The plan also included a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the conversion sector to 193 million tons
‘Environmental dispatch’ is a method of first generating energy sources that minimize environmental costs, and is in contrast to the current’economic dispatch’, which considers economics as the top priority. The government plans to implement environmental dispatch from next year in a way that reflects the cost of trading permits to the cost of generation. It is a structure that averages the cost of trading permits for one year and reflects it in the cost from next year.
The’coal cap limit’ is to place a limit on the annual upper limit of coal power generation of coal generators in line with the goal of reducing greenhouse gases. It will be implemented from 2022 to 2023 after revising related laws.
The government plans to induce competition within the amount of coal power generation by introducing a price bidding system.
System limit price (SMP) settlement system is also improved. It is planning to diversify the market structure, introduce a price bidding system, and abolish the settlement adjustment factor that compensates for losses in coal and nuclear energy in the long run.
The Ministry of Industry analyzed that it is difficult to quantitatively predict how much electricity rates will rise at the present time due to the complicated reflection of environmental costs.
At the same time, “The rate increase factors such as the introduction of environmental dispatch, reduction of coal power generation, and increase in LNG power generation are offset by the rate cut factors such as the implementation of the LNG individual rate system, and the increase will not deviate significantly from the 10.9% increase until 2030, which was proposed in the 8th power plan. “I see.”
At the public hearing on that day, there were opinions that the construction of Shinhanul Units 3 and 4, which had been suspended, should be reflected in the supply and demand plan to resume construction.
In response, the Working Group said, “For stable power supply, Shinhanul Units 3 and 4, which have uncertainties, were inevitably excluded from the supply volume.”
In addition, he pointed out that seven new coal generators under construction should be stopped in order to achieve a carbon neutral goal.
Pointing out that the expansion of LNG power generation that emits carbon is not suitable for carbon neutrality, “It is inevitable to expand LNG power generation as an alternative power source for the time being due to the abolition of coal power generation and expansion of new renewable energy.” ), Green Hydrogen Turbine and other technologies will reduce carbon emissions.
The Ministry of Industry and Industry plans to prepare a final electric power plan by reflecting the opinions from the public hearing on that day, and hold the Electric Power Policy Council on the 28th to finalize it.
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